Cosan S.A. (NYSE: CSAN)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing CIK: 0001430162
Market Cap 2.17 Bn
P/B 1.98
P/E -0.88
P/S 0.27
ROIC (Qtr) 108.85
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -7.07
Total Debt (Qtr) 13.00 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 11.88
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About

Cosan S.A., a leading player in the natural resources sector in Brazil, is a company that operates in various industries including energy, agriculture, and logistics. The company is listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA) under the ticker symbol CSAN. Cosan has a long history of operations, dating back to the 1930s, and has built a reputation for quality and reliability. Cosan's main business activities include the production and distribution of sugar, ethanol, and other agricultural products, as well as the operation of fuel distribution...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 2.43B provide 2.34x coverage of short-term debt 1.04B, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Tangible assets of 18.42B provide exceptional 6686.62x coverage of deferred revenue 2.75M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.48B provides 3.08x coverage of SG&A expenses 804.81M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.48B provides strong 900.94x coverage of deferred revenue 2.75M, indicating service delivery capability.
  • Tangible assets of 18.42B provide robust 20.43x coverage of other current liabilities 901.51M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.48B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (388.55M) with a -6.39 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 2.43B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (192.07M), which is -12.67x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • High receivables of 788.83M relative to inventory of 391.89M (2.01 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 2.48B shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of (25.68M), with a -96.64 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 823.84M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 1.66B, with a 0.50 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Breakdown of Revenue (2021)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp 142.92 Bn 53.05 1.86 34.20 Bn
2 VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx 79.27 Bn 8.41 0.46 10.58 Bn
3 PSX Phillips 66 70.22 Bn 27.51 0.54 21.76 Bn
4 SUN Sunoco LP 5.94 Bn 11.81 0.45 10.07 Bn
5 DINO HF Sinclair Corp 5.65 Bn 289.25 1.17 3.16 Bn
6 PBF PBF Energy Inc. 3.87 Bn -24.43 0.13 2.90 Bn
7 DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. 2.42 Bn 7.69 0.13 3.59 Bn
8 CVI Cvr Energy Inc 2.28 Bn 13.73 0.31 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.07 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 0.65 8.58
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.12 2.22
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 28.72 10.87
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 0.60 9.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 1.96 10.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.75 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.20 0.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.98 6.86
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -0.88 34.12
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -1.17 -0.72
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 28.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 1.75
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -37.85
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.03 1.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -29.59 -33.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -10.05 150.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.78
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -94.99 -40.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 24.30 451.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -96.54 -35.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -513.88 -53.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -26.82
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 3.17 12.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 8.34 31.60
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.06 2.36
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.42
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.88 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.72 1.41
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 11.88 10.15
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.03 1.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.03 1.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 9.90 6.34
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 3.84 1.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -19.72 -2.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 32.00 12.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -31.00 -3.21