Valero Energy Corp/Tx (NYSE: VLO)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing CIK: 0001035002
Market Cap 79.27 Bn
P/B 3.62
P/E 8.41
P/S 0.46
ROIC (Qtr) 4.17
Div Yield % 2.59
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -2.15
Total Debt (Qtr) 10.58 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.45
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About

Valero Energy Corporation, known as Valero, is a prominent player in the petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels industry. Its common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol VLO. The company's primary business activities encompass the manufacturing and marketing of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels, as well as the production of petrochemical products. Valero's operations span across various business segments, including Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The Refining...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 4.84B provides robust 0.46x coverage of total debt 10.58B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 4.76B provide 5.33x coverage of short-term debt 894M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 58.62B provides 5.54x coverage of total debt 10.58B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 2.94B exceeds capital expenditure of 1.90B by 1.54x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 4.84B provides 4.87x coverage of SG&A expenses 993M, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 4.84B barely covers its investment activities of (1.97B), with a coverage ratio of -2.46, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 4.84B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.40B) with a -3.46 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 4.76B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (120M), which is -39.70x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 2.42B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 3.04B, with a 0.80 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 3.04B relative to operating cash flow of 4.84B, which is 0.63x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp 142.92 Bn 53.05 1.86 34.20 Bn
2 VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx 79.27 Bn 8.41 0.46 10.58 Bn
3 PSX Phillips 66 70.22 Bn 27.51 0.54 21.76 Bn
4 SUN Sunoco LP 5.94 Bn 11.81 0.45 10.07 Bn
5 DINO HF Sinclair Corp 5.65 Bn 289.25 1.17 3.16 Bn
6 PBF PBF Energy Inc. 3.87 Bn -24.43 0.13 2.90 Bn
7 DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. 2.42 Bn 7.69 0.13 3.59 Bn
8 CVI Cvr Energy Inc 2.28 Bn 13.73 0.31 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.48 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 7.94 8.58
EV to Debt EV to Debt 8.20 2.22
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 6.90 10.87
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5.62 9.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 9.52 10.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.09 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.51 0.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.62 6.86
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 8.41 34.12
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.07 -0.72
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 92.10 28.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 4.46 1.75
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 46.94 -37.85
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 4.38 1.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -5.72 -33.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -8.10 150.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 5.44 1.78
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -53.13 -40.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -35.37 451.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -54.55 -35.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -60.72 -53.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -57.21 -26.82
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -41.88 12.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -31.29 31.60
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 2.10 2.36
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.21 0.42
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.32 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.60 1.41
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.45 10.15
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 4.38 1.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 4.38 1.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 4.40 6.34
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 1.96 1.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 1.52 -2.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 3.40 12.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 1.20 -3.21