HF Sinclair Corp (NYSE: DINO)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing CIK: 0001915657
Market Cap 5.65 Bn
P/B 9.13
P/E 289.25
P/S 1.17
ROIC (Qtr) 4.27
Div Yield % 1.38
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 0.61
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.16 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.33
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About

HF Sinclair Corp, also known as DINO, is a prominent independent energy company engaged in the production and marketing of high-value light products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, and other specialty products. The company operates primarily in the United States and Canada, with its headquarters in Dallas, Texas. HF Sinclair's main business activities encompass refining, marketing, and midstream operations. The refining segment includes the operations of seven complex refineries, with a combined crude oil processing capacity...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 1.45B provide 16.87x coverage of short-term debt 86M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.17B provides exceptional 155.82x coverage of minority interest expenses 7.49M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.17B provides strong 42.95x coverage of stock compensation 27.16M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 13.36B provides 4.23x coverage of total debt 3.15B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.17B provides 2.63x coverage of SG&A expenses 443.75M, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.17B barely covers its investment activities of (514.40M), with a coverage ratio of -2.27, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.17B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (379.46M) with a -3.07 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 1.45B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (2M), which is -725.50x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 726.77M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 899.24M, with a 0.81 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 899.24M relative to operating cash flow of 1.17B, which is 0.77x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp 142.92 Bn 53.05 1.86 34.20 Bn
2 VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx 79.27 Bn 8.41 0.46 10.58 Bn
3 PSX Phillips 66 70.22 Bn 27.51 0.54 21.76 Bn
4 SUN Sunoco LP 5.94 Bn 11.81 0.45 10.07 Bn
5 DINO HF Sinclair Corp 5.65 Bn 289.25 1.17 3.16 Bn
6 PBF PBF Energy Inc. 3.87 Bn -24.43 0.13 2.90 Bn
7 DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. 2.42 Bn 7.69 0.13 3.59 Bn
8 CVI Cvr Energy Inc 2.28 Bn 13.73 0.31 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.36 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 29.11 8.58
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.95 2.22
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 91.44 10.87
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 34.22 9.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -17.19 10.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.09 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.27 0.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 9.13 6.86
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 289.25 34.12
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.04 -0.72
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 93.90 28.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.00 1.75
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 55.22 -37.85
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.80 1.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -16.77 -33.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 18.02 150.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 2.56 1.78
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 7.32 -40.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 28.99 451.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 40.30 -35.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 56.29 -53.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 26.79 -26.82
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -36.26 12.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 19.84 31.60
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.56 2.36
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.23 0.42
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.49 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.91 1.41
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.33 10.15
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.80 1.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.80 1.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 6.00 6.34
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 2.70 1.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 1.99 -2.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 7.70 12.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 1.50 -3.21