Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE: MPC)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing CIK: 0001510295
Market Cap 142.92 Bn
P/B 14.22
P/E 53.05
P/S 1.86
ROIC (Qtr) 10.30
Div Yield % 0.55
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 1.35
Total Debt (Qtr) 34.20 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.00
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About

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC), a leading integrated downstream energy company, operates in the energy industry. Incorporated in Delaware in 2009, MPC is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol MPC. The company's main business activities encompass refining, marketing, and distributing petroleum products, as well as gathering, transporting, and storing crude oil and natural gas. MPC operates two reportable segments: Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 7.39B provides 2.23x coverage of SG&A expenses 3.32B, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 71.16B provides 12.06x coverage of working capital 5.90B, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Retained earnings of 38.52B provide full 1.20x coverage of long-term debt 32.15B, indicating strong internal capital position.
  • Tangible assets of 71.16B provide robust 22.09x coverage of other current liabilities 3.22B, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Retained earnings of 38.52B provide strong 11.96x coverage of other current liabilities 3.22B, indicating earnings quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 7.39B barely covers its investment activities of (5.35B), with a coverage ratio of -1.38, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 2.65B against inventory of 9.83B, the 0.27 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 7.39B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.13B) with a -6.53 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 2.65B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (3.38B), which is -0.78x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 4.94B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 3.25B, with a 1.52 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp 142.92 Bn 53.05 1.86 34.20 Bn
2 VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx 79.27 Bn 8.41 0.46 10.58 Bn
3 PSX Phillips 66 70.22 Bn 27.51 0.54 21.76 Bn
4 SUN Sunoco LP 5.94 Bn 11.81 0.45 10.07 Bn
5 DINO HF Sinclair Corp 5.65 Bn 289.25 1.17 3.16 Bn
6 PBF PBF Energy Inc. 3.87 Bn -24.43 0.13 2.90 Bn
7 DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. 2.42 Bn 7.69 0.13 3.59 Bn
8 CVI Cvr Energy Inc 2.28 Bn 13.73 0.31 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.74 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 31.44 8.58
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.23 2.22
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 33.61 10.87
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 28.17 9.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 33.27 10.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.01 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.88 0.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 14.22 6.86
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 53.05 34.12
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.55 -0.72
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 38.40 28.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 3.64 1.75
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 25.49 -37.85
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 4.19 1.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -36.30 -33.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -33.68 150.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 10.30 1.78
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -25.52 -40.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -12.31 451.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -23.05 -35.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -34.18 -53.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -26.32 -26.82
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -18.86 12.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -8.91 31.60
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.63 2.36
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.11 0.42
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.14 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.32 1.41
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.00 10.15
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 4.19 1.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 4.19 1.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 6.10 6.34
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 3.65 1.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 2.78 -2.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 10.40 12.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 2.10 -3.21