Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing CIK: 0001534701
Market Cap 70.22 Bn
P/B 3.22
P/E 27.51
P/S 0.54
ROIC (Qtr) 4.91
Div Yield % 3.06
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -3.27
Total Debt (Qtr) 21.76 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.81
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About

Phillips 66, a multinational energy company, operates in the refining, chemicals, and midstream sectors. Its shares are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PSX. The company's roots trace back to 2011 when it was spun off from ConocoPhillips. Phillips 66's business activities encompass refining, marketing, and midstream operations. The refining segment is a crucial part of the company's operations, with 12 refineries in the United States and Europe. These refineries, strategically located in the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 73.65B provides 3.39x coverage of total debt 21.75B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.41B provides exceptional 28.17x coverage of minority interest expenses 121M, showing strong core operations.
  • Long-term investments of 12.49B provide solid 0.65x coverage of long-term debt 19.17B, indicating strategic financial planning.
  • Retained earnings of 30.82B provide full 1.61x coverage of long-term debt 19.17B, indicating strong internal capital position.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 73.65B provides 18.09x coverage of working capital 4.07B, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.41B barely covers its investment activities of (1.98B), with a coverage ratio of -1.73, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 1.84B against inventory of 6.42B, the 0.29 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.41B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.91B) with a -1.78 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 1.84B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (2.19B), which is -0.84x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 2.80B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 3.25B, with a 0.86 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp 142.92 Bn 53.05 1.86 34.20 Bn
2 VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx 79.27 Bn 8.41 0.46 10.58 Bn
3 PSX Phillips 66 70.22 Bn 27.51 0.54 21.76 Bn
4 SUN Sunoco LP 5.94 Bn 11.81 0.45 10.07 Bn
5 DINO HF Sinclair Corp 5.65 Bn 289.25 1.17 3.16 Bn
6 PBF PBF Energy Inc. 3.87 Bn -24.43 0.13 2.90 Bn
7 DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. 2.42 Bn 7.69 0.13 3.59 Bn
8 CVI Cvr Energy Inc 2.28 Bn 13.73 0.31 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.07 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 11.85 8.58
EV to Debt EV to Debt 3.75 2.22
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 22.82 10.87
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 14.77 9.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 16.36 10.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.16 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.63 0.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.22 6.86
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 27.51 34.12
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.79 -0.72
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 127.00 28.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 4.70 1.75
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 140.72 -37.85
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.90 1.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -3.52 -33.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 12.71 150.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 6.82 1.78
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -43.50 -40.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -16.83 451.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -47.11 -35.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -58.18 -53.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -52.93 -26.82
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -57.73 12.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -11.27 31.60
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.76 2.36
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.35 0.42
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.10 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.23 1.41
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.81 10.15
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.90 1.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.90 1.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 4.50 6.34
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 2.08 1.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 1.37 -2.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 7.20 12.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 1.10 -3.21