Nvr
NYSE: NVR
$6,414.69 ▲ +259.67  (+4.22%)
At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap17.18 Bn
P/E13.87
P/S1.75
Div. Yield0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)908.66 Mn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)-21.72
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About

NVR, Inc. is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, specializing in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings. The company operates primarily on a pre-sold basis, meaning homes are typically sold before or during construction, reducing speculative inventory risk. In addition to homebuilding, NVR, Inc. provides mortgage banking and title services through its subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc., to…

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Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Residential Construction CIK: 0000906163

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • NVR's homebuilding segment demonstrates underlying demand resilience despite quarterly headwinds, as evidenced by a 7% year-over-year increase in new orders to 5,738 units in Q1 2026, which occurred alongside a declining average sales price and a reduced cancellation rate of 14% (down from 16% in Q1 2025), indicating that the company is successfully capturing market share through competitive pricing and improved buyer commitment in a challenging affordability environment, while the flat year-over-year backlog of 10,171 units suggests that the pipeline of sold-but-unsettled homes is stabilizing after prior volatility, positioning the company for a potential rebound in settlements as construction timelines normalize and mortgage rates potentially decline later in 2026.
  • NVR's capital allocation strategy remains a significant, underappreciated driver of long-term shareholder value, highlighted by the May 2026 authorization of a $750 million open-ended share repurchase program, which represents approximately 18% of the company's current market capitalization based on recent trading levels, and continues a disciplined history of returning capital that has seen NVR repurchase over $1.8 billion in shares since 2021, thereby consistently reducing the share count (down to 2.699 million shares outstanding as of May 7, 2026 from 2.945 million a year prior) and amplifying earnings per share growth even during periods of modest net income fluctuation, as demonstrated by the Q1 2026 diluted EPS decline of only 29% versus a 34% drop in net income due to the accretive effect of buybacks.
  • NVR's mortgage banking segment exhibits structural advantages that buffer against cyclical downturns, with Q1 2026 income before tax declining only 17% year-over-year to $27.1 million despite a 27% drop in loan production to $1.05 billion, indicating improved operational efficiency and a favorable shift in revenue mix toward higher-margin secondary marketing gains and fee income, as reflected in the stable capture rate of 83% (down only slightly from 86%), which suggests the company is maintaining its competitive positioning in mortgage origination and servicing while benefiting from its captive relationship with homebuilding customers, providing a steady internal referral base that reduces customer acquisition costs and enhances profitability resilience during rate-sensitive periods.
▼ Bear case
  • NVR's homebuilding margins are under persistent pressure from structural cost headwinds that management has not adequately addressed, as Q1 2026 gross profit margin fell to 19.6% from 21.9% in Q1 2025 due to continued pricing pressure and higher lot costs, with the average settlement price remaining flat at $457,000 year-over-year despite rising input costs for land, labor, and materials, signaling an inability to pass through inflation to consumers in a price-sensitive market, while the 22% decline in settlements to 4,015 units—driven by a 15% lower opening backlog—reveals fragility in the conversion pipeline that could worsen if mortgage rates remain elevated or if consumer confidence deteriorates further, directly threatening revenue visibility.
  • NVR's aggressive share repurchase program, while boosting EPS in the short term, risks exacerbating leverage and reducing financial flexibility at a time when the company faces cyclical downturns, as treasury stock increased to $16.294 billion as of March 31, 2026 from $15.677 billion at December 31, 2025, representing a significant outflow of capital that could have been used to strengthen the balance sheet or invest in land acquisition during a potential buyer's market, especially given that contract land deposits net declined 3% in dollar value to $4.70 billion despite flat unit backlog, suggesting the company may be overpaying for land or failing to replenish its pipeline at attractive costs, which could impair future gross margins and limit long-term growth options if the housing market remains subdued.
  • NVR's mortgage banking segment faces hidden vulnerability from declining capture rates and secondary market dependencies, with the Q1 2026 capture rate falling to 83% from 86% in Q1 2025, indicating that the company is losing origination share to competitors even among its own homebuilding customers, while mortgage closed loan production decreased 27% to $1.05 billion, and the segment's income before tax declined only 17% due to non-recurring benefits from stock option-related tax savings (which added $12.6 million in Q1 2026 versus $2.7 million in Q1 2025), meaning that core mortgage profitability is deteriorating more sharply than reported, and if interest rates stay high or regulatory pressures increase in the secondary market, this traditionally stable earnings contributor could become a meaningful drag on overall performance.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Residential Construction
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ 40.90 Bn12.751.237.11 Bn
2 PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ 23.36 Bn12.381.421.82 Bn
3 LEN Lennar Corp /New/ 19.77 Bn9.890.600.69 Bn
4 NVR Nvr Inc 17.18 Bn13.871.750.91 Bn
5 TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. 15.08 Bn10.831.850.90 Bn
6 TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corp 6.96 Bn10.260.910.79 Bn
7 IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. 5.97 Bn23.442.031.11 Bn
8 MTH Meritage Homes CORP 4.78 Bn12.51-3.491.81 Bn