Mosaic Co (NYSE: MOS)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs CIK: 0001285785
Market Cap 11.47 Bn
P/B 1.05
P/E 12.98
P/S 1.20
ROIC (Qtr) 4.19
Div Yield % 4.20
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 22.81
Total Debt (Qtr) 4.57 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.36
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About

The Mosaic Company (MOS), a Delaware corporation based in Tampa, Florida, is a prominent player in the global fertilizer industry. As a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, MOS operates through three reportable business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol MOS and has a significant presence in the phosphate and potash markets, making it a key contributor to the agricultural sector. Mosaic's primary business...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.10B provides exceptional 36.31x coverage of minority interest expenses 30.30M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.10B provides strong 37.55x coverage of stock compensation 29.30M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 23.58B provides 5.16x coverage of total debt 4.57B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.10B provides 2.08x coverage of SG&A expenses 528.80M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 23.58B provides 37.65x coverage of working capital 626.10M, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.10B barely covers its investment activities of (1.30B), with a coverage ratio of -0.85, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 153.30M against inventory of 3.28B, the 0.05 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.10B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (277M) with a -3.97 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of (203.70M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 1.30B, with a -0.16 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Free cash flow of (203.70M) represents just -0.52x of debt issuance 393.30M, suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Agricultural Inputs
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 CTVA Corteva, Inc. 51.66 Bn 47.22 2.97 2.58 Bn
2 NTR Nutrien Ltd. 33.97 Bn 18.78 1.28 14.18 Bn
3 CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 24.01 Bn 17.27 5.06 3.40 Bn
4 MOS Mosaic Co 11.47 Bn 12.98 1.20 4.57 Bn
5 ICL ICL Group Ltd. 7.35 Bn 19.93 1.04 2.68 Bn
6 SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Co 4.04 Bn 45.09 1.21 2.53 Bn
7 FMC Fmc Corp 1.81 Bn 1.37 0.40 4.58 Bn
8 UAN Cvr Partners, Lp 1.13 Bn 13.61 1.94 0.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.49 0.81
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 4.43 10.02
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.65 10.62
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 9.39 46.09
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 6.09 7.11
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 7.62 9.01
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.06 1.48
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.27 1.04
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.05 0.69
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 12.98 13.22
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.44 1.10
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 22.50 28.62
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.87 1.49
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -135.51 2.06
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 9.86 3.21
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 0.96 10,378.95
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -49.17 20.72
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 4.82 -0.75
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 171.77 -98.96
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 15.83 -212.56
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 181.56 -25.56
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 243.08 257.67
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 239.47 -169.70
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -167.58 -105.41
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 5.18 14.76
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.48 0.49
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.12 0.00
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.66
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.14 1.99
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.36 0.09
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 9.86 3.21
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 9.86 3.21
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 24.40 -162.19
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 15.42 -175.66
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 13.85 -244.07
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 15.60 32.49
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 10.30 -252.26