CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs CIK: 0001324404
Market Cap 24.01 Bn
P/B 5.70
P/E 17.27
P/S 5.06
ROIC (Qtr) 19.66
Div Yield % 1.71
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 21.09
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.40 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.70
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About

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), a prominent player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, is a leading manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products. The company's operations span across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, making it a global entity with a significant presence in the North American market. CF Industries generates revenue through the production and sale of various nitrogen products, including anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), and ammonium nitrate...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.63B provides robust 0.78x coverage of total debt 3.40B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 1.84B provide 17.02x coverage of short-term debt 108M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 11.23B provides 3.31x coverage of total debt 3.40B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.63B provides exceptional 16.35x coverage of interest expenses 161M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.63B provides strong 58.51x coverage of stock compensation 45M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.63B barely covers its investment activities of (903M), with a coverage ratio of -2.92, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.63B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (334M) with a -7.88 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating earnings of 1.92B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 891M, with a 2.15 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Retained earnings of 4.20B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (231M), which is -18.16x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Tax assets of 125M provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 888M, which is 0.14x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Agricultural Inputs
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 CTVA Corteva, Inc. 51.66 Bn 47.22 2.97 2.58 Bn
2 NTR Nutrien Ltd. 33.97 Bn 18.78 1.28 14.18 Bn
3 CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 24.01 Bn 17.27 5.06 3.40 Bn
4 MOS Mosaic Co 11.47 Bn 12.98 1.20 4.57 Bn
5 ICL ICL Group Ltd. 7.35 Bn 19.93 1.04 2.68 Bn
6 SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Co 4.04 Bn 45.09 1.21 2.53 Bn
7 FMC Fmc Corp 1.81 Bn 1.37 0.40 4.58 Bn
8 UAN Cvr Partners, Lp 1.13 Bn 13.61 1.94 0.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.82 0.81
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 18.16 10.02
EV to Debt EV to Debt 7.60 10.62
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 11.02 46.09
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 13.13 7.11
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -68.45 9.01
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.07 1.48
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.44 1.04
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 5.70 0.69
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 17.27 13.22
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.13 1.10
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 24.10 28.62
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.00 1.49
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 18.67 2.06
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 11.89 3.21
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 47.51 10,378.95
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -2.08 20.72
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 5.26 -0.75
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 20.54 -98.96
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 12.82 -212.56
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 19.61 -25.56
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 17.56 257.67
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 30.96 -169.70
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 187.02 -105.41
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 22.13 14.76
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.47 0.49
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.00
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.40 0.66
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.27 1.99
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.70 0.09
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 11.89 3.21
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 11.89 3.21
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 41.70 -162.19
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 28.43 -175.66
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 26.04 -244.07
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 36.90 32.49
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 20.50 -252.26