Kimbell Royalty Partners
NYSE: KRP
$14.68 ▼ -0.26  (-1.77%)
At close: Jul 27, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap1.75 Bn
P/E41.54
P/S5.55
Div. Yield0.09
Total Debt (Qtr)440.90 Mn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)-22.17
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About

Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in 2015 to own and acquire mineral and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties throughout the United States. The company has elected to be taxed as a corporation for United States federal income tax purposes. As an owner of mineral and royalty interests, it receives a portion of revenues from the production of oil, natural gas, and associated NGLs from the acreage underlying its interests, net…

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Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas E&P CIK: 0001657788

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Kimbell Royalty Partners is positioned to capitalize on accelerating DUC conversion timelines driven by sustained higher oil prices, with management noting that historical six-month conversion periods could shorten significantly in the current commodity environment, and their net DUC and permit inventory may understate actual opportunity by up to 20% when including minor properties, creating a hidden production growth engine not fully reflected in current guidance or market expectations. This is underscored by the company's active rig count of 85 representing 16% of U.S. land rigs and activity expanding beyond the Permian into the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Mid-Con, signaling broader basin diversification that reduces reliance on any single region and enhances resilience to localized price or regulatory shocks, while the line-of-sight wells exceeding maintenance levels provide a clear path to production growth without requiring new capital intensive drilling programs. The recent Mesa Royalties acquisition, valued at $147 million and expected to close in Q2 2026, adds approximately 1,390 Boe/d of production by June 1, 2026, with over 98% of U.S. land rigs operating in counties where Kimbell will hold mineral interests post-close, dramatically increasing geographic coverage and scale in core basins like the Delaware and Midland, and this strategic bolt-on aligns with their role as a leading consolidator in a fragmented $850+ billion sector, where management’s active evaluation of sizable packages suggests further M&A potential once price volatility subsides, creating a runway for accretive growth that the market may be underestimating given the current focus on quarterly results rather than long-term consolidation upside. Kimbell’s capital allocation strategy demonstrates disciplined flexibility, with 75% of cash available for distribution directed to unitholders (72% as tax-advantaged return of capital) and 25% dedicated to debt paydown, maintaining a conservative net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.6x while retaining $184.1 million in undrawn credit capacity, and the authorization to repurchase up to an additional $92.7 million in units at prices below intrinsic value—evidenced by the Q1 repurchase of 500,000 units at $14.60—provides dual levers to enhance unitholder value through yield accretion and debt reduction without compromising distribution stability, a balance that supports both income generation and balance sheet strength in a volatile commodity environment.
▼ Bear case
  • Kimbell Royalty Partners faces significant execution risk in integrating the Mesa Royalties acquisition, as the deal involves issuing 6.9 million new common units valued at $103 million, which could dilute existing unitholders if the anticipated production of 1,390 Boe/d and $45.91/Boe cash margin fail to materialize due to operational delays, lower-than-expected well performance, or integration challenges in stacking pay zones across the Delaware and Midland basins, particularly since the acquired assets include overlapping acreage with existing Kimbell rigs (5 of 13 rigs), potentially creating redundant infrastructure or conflicts in development pacing that management did not adequately address in the Q&A. The company’s reliance on rising oil prices to drive activity and DUC conversions is a structural vulnerability, as highlighted by management’s acknowledgment that oil price volatility has caused potential sellers to walk away from M&A deals due to divergent price outlooks, and while current WTI at $91 supports optimism, any reversal in macro conditions—such as escalation in the Middle East conflict or demand destruction from global slowdowns—could rapidly reverse the favorable drilling environment, especially given that 53% of production is liquids-weighted and natural gas prices remain subdued at $3.32/Mcf, leaving the portfolio exposed to downside commodity swings without sufficient hedging protection beyond 2027. Despite strong cash generation, Kimbell’s net debt of $440.9 million and trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of $258.9 million leave limited room for error, with the 1.6x leverage ratio already incorporating the full benefit of recent distribution cuts to unitholders (75% payout ratio), and any deterioration in operating performance—whether from declining well productivity, rising G&A costs beyond the current $2.31/BOE cash G&A, or failure to offset production declines with new drilling—could quickly pressure covenants or force a reduction in distributions, undermining the tax-advantaged yield narrative that currently supports unit valuation, particularly as the market may be ignoring the declining trend in net income attributable to common units, which fell from $0.20 in Q1 2025 to just $0.04 in Q1 2026.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer Comparison

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3 FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. 55.39 Bn276.973.6413.90 Bn
4 WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd 41.28 Bn12.233.1811.96 Bn
5 OXY-WT Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ 32.80 Bn8.091.6415.67 Bn
6 EQT EQT Corp 32.48 Bn10.873.415.77 Bn
7 TPL Texas Pacific Land Corp 27.36 Bn50.3832.61-
8 DVN Devon Energy Corp/De 26.53 Bn10.791.568.39 Bn