Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE: GRBK)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Residential Construction CIK: 0001373670
Market Cap 3.53 Bn
P/B 1.96
P/E 10.42
P/S 1.67
ROIC (Qtr) 16.20
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -4.69
Total Debt (Qtr) 348.47 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19
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About

Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is a diversified homebuilding and land development company based in the United States. Its main business activities encompass the acquisition and development of land, the construction of homes, and the provision of mortgage and title services. Green Brick's operations span several segments, each with a unique focus, and it generates revenue through the sale of its homes. The company's segments include Trophy Signature Homes, CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes, Centre Living Homes, and GRBK GHO Homes....

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 162.20M provides robust 0.47x coverage of total debt 348.47M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 162.20M provides strong 14.04x coverage of stock compensation 11.55M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.48B provides 7.12x coverage of total debt 348.47M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 158.09M exceeds capital expenditure of 4.11M by 38.49x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Retained earnings of 1.51B provide strong 1682.03x coverage of intangibles 898000, indicating quality earnings retention.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 162.20M barely covers its investment activities of (39.70M), with a coverage ratio of -4.09, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 175.44M against inventory of 2.10B, the 0.08 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 162.20M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (2.88M) with a -56.42 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 175.44M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (35.60M), which is -4.93x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating cash flow of 162.20M provides minimal 1.78x coverage of tax expenses of 91.31M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Residential Construction
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ 56.51 Bn 105.92 7.04 5.55 Bn
2 TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. 29.11 Bn 76.92 7.08 2.79 Bn
3 PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ 28.02 Bn 12.63 1.62 2.16 Bn
4 LEN Lennar Corp /New/ 23.56 Bn -229.13 7.79 4.08 Bn
5 NVR Nvr Inc 21.52 Bn 16.06 2.13 1.05 Bn
6 IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. 8.62 Bn -487.54 19.34 0.99 Bn
7 TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corp 6.86 Bn 8.06 0.82 2.26 Bn
8 MTH Meritage Homes CORP 5.67 Bn 12.52 0.97 1.83 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.48 1.47
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 22.70 43.01
EV to Debt EV to Debt 10.57 37.82
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 8.56 48.76
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 8.28 112.58
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 23.29 11.82
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.04 1.26
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.74 3.28
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.96 9.23
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.42 -14.72
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 117.80 8.23
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 6.29
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.54
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 96.10
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 142.03
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 36.77 27.50
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 67.65 196.58
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 4.02
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -3.45 -29.39
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 1.26 -30.05
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -3.18 -31.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -3.18 -32.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -1.80 -25.62
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 647.53 341.90
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 3.33 -14.63
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.85 1.00
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.02 0.13
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.23
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.81
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19 0.58
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 142.03
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 142.03
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 20.60 10.57
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 20.35 9.64
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 20.35 9.44
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 31.80 22.26
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 16.00 7.17