Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Academy Sports & Outdoors

NASDAQ: ASO

$46.31 ▲ +0.83 (+1.81%)

At close: Jul 10, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap3.04 Bn

P/E7.94

P/S0.50

Div. Yield0.01

ROIC (Qtr)0.00

Total Debt (Qtr)483.32 Mn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)6.70

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About

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is a full line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer operating in the United States. As of November 1 2025 the company operated 317 stores ranging from 40,000 to 130,000 gross square feet with an average size of about 70,000 gross square feet across 21 contiguous states mainly in the southern region. The stores are predominantly off mall locations within power centers or stand alone buildings. The workforce consisted of approximately 24,000 team members supported by three distribution centers and an online platform that includes a website and a mobile app. The company mission is to provide Fun for All through a localized merchandising strategy that offers a broad assortment of sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, camping gear, patio furniture, outdoor cooking equipment, hunting and fishing gear, and related products. It seeks to deliver value and convenience to shoppers by tailoring product mix to local preferences, and maintaining everyday low prices.

Revenue is generated primarily from merchandise sales in physical stores and through the online channel which comprises the website and mobile app. In the 2025 third quarter net sales were divided among merchandise categories with outdoor representing roughly 32 percent, sports and recreation 21 percent, apparel 25 percent, and footwear 22 percent. The company also derives revenue from services such as buy online pickup in store and ship from store which are allocated to online sales for reporting purposes. New store openings contributed significantly to sales with 24 stores opened since the end of the 2024 third quarter generating 48.6 million of net sales in the 2025 third quarter. Online sales grew 22.2 percent year over year in the quarter and accounted for 10.4 percent of merchandise sales. Comparable sales decreased 0.9 percent in the quarter reflecting lower transaction counts partially offset by higher average ticket. Private label products are offered across all categories and typically carry lower prices than comparable national brand items helping to drive margin improvement. The firm continues to invest in omnichannel capabilities such as mobile app enhancements, website optimization, and fulfillment upgrades to connect further with customers.

The company operates through the following segments: Outdoor, Sports and Recreation, Apparel, and Footwear.

• Outdoor: This segment covers camping gear, patio furniture, outdoor cooking equipment, hunting and fishing equipment, and seasonal items such as trampolines, play sets, bicycles, and severe weather supplies. In the 2025 third quarter outdoor merchandise accounted for approximately 32 percent of net sales.

• Sports and Recreation: This segment includes sporting equipment, fitness equipment, apparel, training and running shoes, and team sports gear. Sports and recreation merchandise represented about 21 percent of net sales in the 2025 third quarter.

• Apparel: This segment consists of work and casual wear, seasonal wear and accessories, licensed apparel for local sports fans, and apparel designed for outdoor activities. Apparel merchandise contributed roughly 25 percent of net sales in the 2025 third quarter.

• Footwear: This segment comprises training and running shoes, work and casual footwear, and other shoe categories. Footwear merchandise made up around 22 percent of net sales in the 2025 third quarter.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc faces competition from national sporting goods retailers such as Dick's Sporting Goods, Bass Pro Shops, and Cabela's as well as from large general merchandise chains and electronic commerce platforms. The company differentiates itself through a broad product assortment, a strong portfolio of private label brands, a localized merchandising approach that tailors offerings to regional preferences, and an expanding omnichannel strategy that integrates stores with its website and mobile app. Its supply chain benefits from multiple distribution centers and direct import capabilities which help manage cost and mitigate tariff exposure. Inventory management tools and markdown strategies support gross margin stability while the firm’s focus on year round core items and seasonal merchandise balances sales throughout the year. These advantages enable the firm to attract value conscious shoppers while maintaining competitive pricing and convenient shopping options across its footprint.

The customer base consists of individual consumers who participate in sports, outdoor recreation, fitness, hunting, fishing, and leisure activities. This includes families, athletes, anglers, hunters, and general shoppers seeking affordable apparel footwear and outdoor gear. The company’s marketing efforts emphasize local relevance such as offering regionally specific apparel for area sports fans, baits and lures for local fishing spots, and beach towels in coastal markets. Loyalty programs and the Academy Credit Card program further engage shoppers and provide data to refine assortment and promotions. The filing does not disclose specific customer names so the description focuses on the types of shoppers served.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Academy Sports + Outdoors is positioned to drive sustainable top-line growth through its aggressive store expansion strategy, with plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2026 that are expected to perform strongly upon launch and contribute meaningfully to comparable sales as they mature into the base. The company's new stores opened from 2022 to 2024 delivered mid-single-digit comp increases and are tracking to exceed year-one performance, creating a growing tailwind as the 2025 vintage rolls into comparable sales throughout 2026. This expansion is concentrated in infill locations within legacy markets, which historically outperform newer market entries due to established brand awareness and customer loyalty, reducing ramp-up risk and accelerating profitability. The company's confidence in this strategy is reinforced by its consistent execution, having already opened 24 stores in 2025 despite macroeconomic headwinds, demonstrating operational discipline in real estate selection and store opening cadence. As these stores mature, their contribution to comparable sales growth will compound, providing a structural advantage that is not fully reflected in current guidance ranges which assume a more conservative outlook on new store productivity.
The relaunch of the My Academy Rewards Mastercard represents a transformative initiative that could significantly expand customer engagement and spending beyond the traditional retail ecosystem, addressing an unmet need for value-conscious consumers who seek rewards on everyday purchases like groceries and gas. By offering 2% back on all external spend redeemable at Academy, the program creates a closed-loop loyalty ecosystem that incentivizes customers to consolidate their spending with the brand, thereby increasing share of wallet and visit frequency. This innovation differentiates Academy from competitors whose private label cards only reward in-store spending, positioning the company to capture a larger portion of household expenditure. With 13 million existing members in the base My Academy Awards tier and plans to fully relaunch and convert cardholders by Q2 ahead of Father’s Day, the program has substantial scale to drive immediate impact. Management highlighted that the loyalty credit card alone could deliver benefits equivalent to the estimated 30 basis point tailwind from the World Cup, suggesting this initiative is a material driver of future comp growth that is currently underappreciated in the midpoint of guidance.
Academy's digital transformation efforts, particularly the integration of AI-powered search and personalization capabilities, are beginning to yield tangible results in e-commerce performance and have the potential to accelerate omnichannel sales growth beyond current expectations. The company reported 13.6% growth in its .com business in 2025, driven by foundational investments in search relevance, AI-enabled data enrichment, image generation for private label apparel, and the launch of Scout—an agentic AI assistant—prior to Christmas. These initiatives are being scaled in 2026 with a planned migration to an AI-based semantic search platform in late Q2 and expanded partnerships with OpenAI and Google to surface products within external AI ecosystems, simplifying discovery for customers using conversational search. The rollout of handheld devices in stores, combined with RFID-enabled inventory visibility, empowers associates to access the endless aisle in real time, bridging the gap between online and in-store experiences. These investments are not merely incremental but represent a strategic shift toward a data-driven, personalized retail model that could significantly improve conversion rates and customer lifetime value, especially as the company continues to attract higher-income households (over $100,000) which grew 10% in 2025 and represent its fastest-growing cohort.
External macroeconomic tailwinds from the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the U.S., the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, and elevated tax refunds are poised to provide meaningful, non-cyclical support to Academy's sales performance in the first half of 2026, with the potential to extend into the second half through increased youth sports participation and sustained patriotic spending. The company anticipates 30 World Cup matches across its footprint, which should drive tourism and foot traffic for licensed team merchandise and tailgating categories, while historically similar events have boosted long-term engagement in youth soccer—a direct feed into its sporting goods business. The 250th anniversary is expected to amplify demand for patriotic merchandise, particularly when combined with national enthusiasm for Team USA, creating a seasonal surge that aligns with Academy's strength in holiday and event-driven selling. Furthermore, the early observation of positive comps in the first seven weeks of Q1—attributed in part to higher tax refunds—suggests these benefits are already materializing, and management's belief that refunds will not be lower next year indicates durability. These factors are not transient but represent structural demand drivers that could compel outperformance relative to guidance, especially if consumer resilience exceeds current assumptions.
Academy's ongoing investments in inventory accuracy and supply chain efficiency, particularly the expansion of RFID tagging to private label apparel and footwear, are poised to deliver sustained improvements in in-stock rates and conversion that are not yet fully priced into expectations. The rollout of RFID scanners to all stores in Q2 2025 improved in-stocks by 500 basis points across 25% of annual volume, directly impacting customer satisfaction and sales conversion. The planned extension of tagging to private branded apparel and footwear will increase coverage to roughly one-third of the sales base by spring 2026, enabling weekly counts and real-time inventory updates for a broader assortment. This initiative reduces lost sales from out-of-stocks, enhances the effectiveness of merchandising investments in trending brands like Jordan and Carhartt, and supports the omnichannel strategy by ensuring online and in-store inventory visibility. Combined with assortment rationalization and the continued rollout of distribution center automation (e.g., Manhattan Active WMS), these supply chain upgrades are creating a more responsive and efficient operational foundation that should margin expansion and sales productivity over time, representing a quiet but powerful compounding advantage.

Academy Sports + Outdoors is positioned to drive sustainable top-line growth through its aggressive store expansion strategy, with plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2026 that are expected to perform strongly upon launch and contribute meaningfully to comparable sales as they mature into the base. The company's new stores opened from 2022 to 2024 delivered mid-single-digit comp increases and are tracking to exceed year-one performance, creating a growing tailwind as the 2025 vintage rolls into comparable sales throughout 2026. This expansion is concentrated in infill locations within legacy markets, which historically outperform newer market entries due to established brand awareness and customer loyalty, reducing ramp-up risk and accelerating profitability. The company's confidence in this strategy is reinforced by its consistent execution, having already opened 24 stores in 2025 despite macroeconomic headwinds, demonstrating operational discipline in real estate selection and store opening cadence. As these stores mature, their contribution to comparable sales growth will compound, providing a structural advantage that is not fully reflected in current guidance ranges which assume a more conservative outlook on new store productivity.
The relaunch of the My Academy Rewards Mastercard represents a transformative initiative that could significantly expand customer engagement and spending beyond the traditional retail ecosystem, addressing an unmet need for value-conscious consumers who seek rewards on everyday purchases like groceries and gas. By offering 2% back on all external spend redeemable at Academy, the program creates a closed-loop loyalty ecosystem that incentivizes customers to consolidate their spending with the brand, thereby increasing share of wallet and visit frequency. This innovation differentiates Academy from competitors whose private label cards only reward in-store spending, positioning the company to capture a larger portion of household expenditure. With 13 million existing members in the base My Academy Awards tier and plans to fully relaunch and convert cardholders by Q2 ahead of Father’s Day, the program has substantial scale to drive immediate impact. Management highlighted that the loyalty credit card alone could deliver benefits equivalent to the estimated 30 basis point tailwind from the World Cup, suggesting this initiative is a material driver of future comp growth that is currently underappreciated in the midpoint of guidance.
Academy's digital transformation efforts, particularly the integration of AI-powered search and personalization capabilities, are beginning to yield tangible results in e-commerce performance and have the potential to accelerate omnichannel sales growth beyond current expectations. The company reported 13.6% growth in its .com business in 2025, driven by foundational investments in search relevance, AI-enabled data enrichment, image generation for private label apparel, and the launch of Scout—an agentic AI assistant—prior to Christmas. These initiatives are being scaled in 2026 with a planned migration to an AI-based semantic search platform in late Q2 and expanded partnerships with OpenAI and Google to surface products within external AI ecosystems, simplifying discovery for customers using conversational search. The rollout of handheld devices in stores, combined with RFID-enabled inventory visibility, empowers associates to access the endless aisle in real time, bridging the gap between online and in-store experiences. These investments are not merely incremental but represent a strategic shift toward a data-driven, personalized retail model that could significantly improve conversion rates and customer lifetime value, especially as the company continues to attract higher-income households (over $100,000) which grew 10% in 2025 and represent its fastest-growing cohort.
External macroeconomic tailwinds from the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the U.S., the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, and elevated tax refunds are poised to provide meaningful, non-cyclical support to Academy's sales performance in the first half of 2026, with the potential to extend into the second half through increased youth sports participation and sustained patriotic spending. The company anticipates 30 World Cup matches across its footprint, which should drive tourism and foot traffic for licensed team merchandise and tailgating categories, while historically similar events have boosted long-term engagement in youth soccer—a direct feed into its sporting goods business. The 250th anniversary is expected to amplify demand for patriotic merchandise, particularly when combined with national enthusiasm for Team USA, creating a seasonal surge that aligns with Academy's strength in holiday and event-driven selling. Furthermore, the early observation of positive comps in the first seven weeks of Q1—attributed in part to higher tax refunds—suggests these benefits are already materializing, and management's belief that refunds will not be lower next year indicates durability. These factors are not transient but represent structural demand drivers that could compel outperformance relative to guidance, especially if consumer resilience exceeds current assumptions.
Academy's ongoing investments in inventory accuracy and supply chain efficiency, particularly the expansion of RFID tagging to private label apparel and footwear, are poised to deliver sustained improvements in in-stock rates and conversion that are not yet fully priced into expectations. The rollout of RFID scanners to all stores in Q2 2025 improved in-stocks by 500 basis points across 25% of annual volume, directly impacting customer satisfaction and sales conversion. The planned extension of tagging to private branded apparel and footwear will increase coverage to roughly one-third of the sales base by spring 2026, enabling weekly counts and real-time inventory updates for a broader assortment. This initiative reduces lost sales from out-of-stocks, enhances the effectiveness of merchandising investments in trending brands like Jordan and Carhartt, and supports the omnichannel strategy by ensuring online and in-store inventory visibility. Combined with assortment rationalization and the continued rollout of distribution center automation (e.g., Manhattan Active WMS), these supply chain upgrades are creating a more responsive and efficient operational foundation that should margin expansion and sales productivity over time, representing a quiet but powerful compounding advantage.

▼ Bear case

Academy Sports + Outdoors faces significant headwinds from the persistent financial strain on its core lower- and middle-income consumer base, which is trading down or opting out of discretionary spending due to elevated costs of living, and this trend is unlikely to reverse despite management's optimism about external tailwinds. The company acknowledged that customers earning under $50,000 annually are under considerable pressure, with traffic declining in this cohort while higher-income households (over $100,000) drove 10% growth—indicating a fundamental shift in the customer mix that may not be sustainable or profitable in the long term. While attracting higher-income shoppers diversifies the base, it risks diluting Academy's core value proposition if it fails to maintain relevance with its traditional audience, potentially leading to lower basket sizes and reduced loyalty among the volume-driving segment. Management's reliance on tax refunds, the World Cup, and the 250th anniversary as temporary boosters does not address the structural issue of stagnant real wages and persistent inflation in essentials, which continues to squeeze disposable income. Furthermore, CFO Carl Ford explicitly warned of rising credit card delinquencies—now double the levels seen at the end of 2024—and expressed concern about weak job growth in 2026, signaling deteriorating consumer financial health that could undermine any short-term sales lifts from episodic events.
The company's aggressive store expansion plan, while presented as a growth engine, carries substantial execution risk and may not deliver the anticipated productivity gains due to increasing competition for prime retail locations, rising construction and labor costs, and the potential for cannibalization of existing store sales. Academy plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2026, a pace similar to 2025's 24 openings, but noted that leasing activity was initially paused due to tariff-induced uncertainty in construction prices, suggesting that the back-half weighting of openings could compress the ramp-up period and strain operational resources. While management cites strong performance from 2022–2024 vintage stores, the company has not disclosed specific metrics on new store payback periods or return on invested capital beyond a general 20% ROIC target, leaving investors to assume profitability without granular proof. Moreover, as the store base expands, the incremental contribution of each new store to total sales diminishes, and the company must contend with higher SG&A leverage from pre-opening costs, training, and marketing—expenses that were cited as a key driver of SG&A growth in 2025. If new store performance falls short of expectations, the drag on overall profitability could offset gains from comparable sales growth, especially in a soft consumer environment.
The anticipated benefits from the My Academy Rewards Mastercard loyalty program may be overstated, as its success hinges on customer adoption of a new credit product in a environment of rising debt aversion and tightening credit standards, particularly among the value-seeking demographic Academy aims to serve. While the card offers 2% cash back on external spend redeemable at Academy, its appeal depends on customers actively using it for everyday purchases like groceries and gas—a behavioral shift that requires significant marketing investment and trust-building. The company acknowledged that the My Academy Awards base tier (13 million members) does not require a credit card, suggesting that many loyal customers may prefer simpler reward mechanisms without the complexity or perceived risk of a new financial product. Furthermore, the program's value proposition—such as the $50 reward after $500 in external spend—may not be sufficiently compelling to drive meaningful changes in spending habits, especially if competitors offer more immediate or flexible rewards. There is also a risk that the program's complexity could dilute the effectiveness of the existing loyalty ecosystem, particularly if the integration of three tiers creates confusion at checkout or in marketing communications, potentially increasing operational costs without proportional returns.
Academy's gross margin expansion trajectory is vulnerable to persistent tariff pressures and promotional elasticity limits, as the company has already extracted significant gains from sourcing diversification and inventory timing, leaving fewer levers for future improvement without risking value perception. The 90 basis point gross margin increase in 2025 was driven largely by lapping prior-year port disruption costs and merchandising efficiency from Nike and Jordan brand launches—not sustainable structural changes. Management admitted that future gross margin gains from expanding the Jordan Brand Shop and softline brands like Birkenstocks will be "partially offset by the impact of continued tariffs, especially in the first half of the year," indicating that tariff headwinds remain a material drag. Furthermore, the company's strategy of raising average unit retails through "promotional optimization" and "strategic AUR increases" has limits; as CFO Carl Ford noted, they are committed to maintaining their value reputation, which constrains how much they can raise prices before triggering customer pushback. With merch margin (inclusive of tariffs) already flat in Q4 2025 despite AUR growth, any further tariff increases or failure to offset them through sourcing could quickly erode margin gains, particularly if the company is forced to deepen promotions to maintain traffic—a scenario that would directly contradict its margin expansion goals.
The company's increasing reliance on higher-income consumers and premium brands introduces execution risk related to assortment relevance, vendor dependency, and potential misalignment with its core operational strengths as a value-driven retailer, which could undermine long-term brand equity and customer trust. Academy's strategy of layering on "better-best" brands like Jordan, Carhartt, and Birkenstocks to attract households earning over $100,000 annually assumes that these customers will remain loyal and increase their share of wallet, but it risks alienating the foundational value-seeking base if the assortment shift feels inauthentic or if promotional cadence decreases. Management acknowledged they are "still a value-based retailer" and actively market to lower-income consumers, yet the data shows a clear divergence in traffic trends—strong growth at the high end, decline at the low end—suggesting the current strategy may already be tilting the business toward a more premium positioning. This shift could lead to higher operating complexity, as premium brands often demand stricter merchandising standards, tighter inventory controls, and increased marketing support, potentially straining the very supply chain and store operations efficiencies that have driven recent success. If Academy fails to balance this duality—offering both value and trend—it may end up satisfying neither segment fully, resulting in lost traffic and degraded conversion across the board.

Academy Sports + Outdoors faces significant headwinds from the persistent financial strain on its core lower- and middle-income consumer base, which is trading down or opting out of discretionary spending due to elevated costs of living, and this trend is unlikely to reverse despite management's optimism about external tailwinds. The company acknowledged that customers earning under $50,000 annually are under considerable pressure, with traffic declining in this cohort while higher-income households (over $100,000) drove 10% growth—indicating a fundamental shift in the customer mix that may not be sustainable or profitable in the long term. While attracting higher-income shoppers diversifies the base, it risks diluting Academy's core value proposition if it fails to maintain relevance with its traditional audience, potentially leading to lower basket sizes and reduced loyalty among the volume-driving segment. Management's reliance on tax refunds, the World Cup, and the 250th anniversary as temporary boosters does not address the structural issue of stagnant real wages and persistent inflation in essentials, which continues to squeeze disposable income. Furthermore, CFO Carl Ford explicitly warned of rising credit card delinquencies—now double the levels seen at the end of 2024—and expressed concern about weak job growth in 2026, signaling deteriorating consumer financial health that could undermine any short-term sales lifts from episodic events.
The company's aggressive store expansion plan, while presented as a growth engine, carries substantial execution risk and may not deliver the anticipated productivity gains due to increasing competition for prime retail locations, rising construction and labor costs, and the potential for cannibalization of existing store sales. Academy plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2026, a pace similar to 2025's 24 openings, but noted that leasing activity was initially paused due to tariff-induced uncertainty in construction prices, suggesting that the back-half weighting of openings could compress the ramp-up period and strain operational resources. While management cites strong performance from 2022–2024 vintage stores, the company has not disclosed specific metrics on new store payback periods or return on invested capital beyond a general 20% ROIC target, leaving investors to assume profitability without granular proof. Moreover, as the store base expands, the incremental contribution of each new store to total sales diminishes, and the company must contend with higher SG&A leverage from pre-opening costs, training, and marketing—expenses that were cited as a key driver of SG&A growth in 2025. If new store performance falls short of expectations, the drag on overall profitability could offset gains from comparable sales growth, especially in a soft consumer environment.
The anticipated benefits from the My Academy Rewards Mastercard loyalty program may be overstated, as its success hinges on customer adoption of a new credit product in a environment of rising debt aversion and tightening credit standards, particularly among the value-seeking demographic Academy aims to serve. While the card offers 2% cash back on external spend redeemable at Academy, its appeal depends on customers actively using it for everyday purchases like groceries and gas—a behavioral shift that requires significant marketing investment and trust-building. The company acknowledged that the My Academy Awards base tier (13 million members) does not require a credit card, suggesting that many loyal customers may prefer simpler reward mechanisms without the complexity or perceived risk of a new financial product. Furthermore, the program's value proposition—such as the $50 reward after $500 in external spend—may not be sufficiently compelling to drive meaningful changes in spending habits, especially if competitors offer more immediate or flexible rewards. There is also a risk that the program's complexity could dilute the effectiveness of the existing loyalty ecosystem, particularly if the integration of three tiers creates confusion at checkout or in marketing communications, potentially increasing operational costs without proportional returns.
Academy's gross margin expansion trajectory is vulnerable to persistent tariff pressures and promotional elasticity limits, as the company has already extracted significant gains from sourcing diversification and inventory timing, leaving fewer levers for future improvement without risking value perception. The 90 basis point gross margin increase in 2025 was driven largely by lapping prior-year port disruption costs and merchandising efficiency from Nike and Jordan brand launches—not sustainable structural changes. Management admitted that future gross margin gains from expanding the Jordan Brand Shop and softline brands like Birkenstocks will be "partially offset by the impact of continued tariffs, especially in the first half of the year," indicating that tariff headwinds remain a material drag. Furthermore, the company's strategy of raising average unit retails through "promotional optimization" and "strategic AUR increases" has limits; as CFO Carl Ford noted, they are committed to maintaining their value reputation, which constrains how much they can raise prices before triggering customer pushback. With merch margin (inclusive of tariffs) already flat in Q4 2025 despite AUR growth, any further tariff increases or failure to offset them through sourcing could quickly erode margin gains, particularly if the company is forced to deepen promotions to maintain traffic—a scenario that would directly contradict its margin expansion goals.
The company's increasing reliance on higher-income consumers and premium brands introduces execution risk related to assortment relevance, vendor dependency, and potential misalignment with its core operational strengths as a value-driven retailer, which could undermine long-term brand equity and customer trust. Academy's strategy of layering on "better-best" brands like Jordan, Carhartt, and Birkenstocks to attract households earning over $100,000 annually assumes that these customers will remain loyal and increase their share of wallet, but it risks alienating the foundational value-seeking base if the assortment shift feels inauthentic or if promotional cadence decreases. Management acknowledged they are "still a value-based retailer" and actively market to lower-income consumers, yet the data shows a clear divergence in traffic trends—strong growth at the high end, decline at the low end—suggesting the current strategy may already be tilting the business toward a more premium positioning. This shift could lead to higher operating complexity, as premium brands often demand stricter merchandising standards, tighter inventory controls, and increased marketing support, potentially straining the very supply chain and store operations efficiencies that have driven recent success. If Academy fails to balance this duality—offering both value and trend—it may end up satisfying neither segment fully, resulting in lost traffic and degraded conversion across the board.

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