Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Specialty Retail CIK: 0001403568
Market Cap 32.20 Bn
P/B 12.23
P/E 27.06
P/S 2.69
ROIC (Qtr) 23.62
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 12.95
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.57 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.98
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About

Ulta Beauty, Inc., commonly recognized by its ticker symbol ULTA, holds a prominent position in the beauty industry as the largest specialty retailer in the United States. The company boasts an extensive network of over 1,350 physical stores and an e-commerce platform, offering a diverse assortment of products and services. Ulta Beauty's operations span across several beauty categories, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, and salon styling tools. Ulta Beauty's main business activities revolve around providing...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.36B provides robust 0.53x coverage of total debt 2.57B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.36B provides exceptional 329.55x coverage of interest expenses 4.12M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.36B provides strong 29.92x coverage of stock compensation 45.42M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 6.61B provides 2.57x coverage of total debt 2.57B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.04B exceeds capital expenditure of 317.18M by 3.28x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.36B barely covers its investment activities of (731.95M), with a coverage ratio of -1.86, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 204.92M against inventory of 2.74B, the 0.07 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Cash reserves of 204.92M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (386.79M), which is -0.53x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 1.58B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 624.27M, with a 2.53 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 624.27M relative to operating cash flow of 1.36B, which is 0.46x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Specialty Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. 32.20 Bn 27.06 2.69 2.57 Bn
2 WSM Williams Sonoma Inc 29.62 Bn 25.19 3.40 1.47 Bn
3 TSCO Tractor Supply Co /De/ 28.42 Bn 25.23 1.93 5.72 Bn
4 DKS Dick'S Sporting Goods, Inc. 24.98 Bn 88.10 4.64 7.70 Bn
5 CASY Caseys General Stores Inc 24.65 Bn 59.49 1.65 2.92 Bn
6 BBY Best Buy Co Inc 17.85 Bn 11.66 0.41 4.09 Bn
7 MUSA Murphy USA Inc. 15.91 Bn 61.33 1.35 2.75 Bn
8 FIVE Five Below, Inc 11.68 Bn 37.94 2.64 2.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 4.88 2.23
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 25.21 14.70
EV to Debt EV to Debt 13.30 79.39
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 21.72 -40.16
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 15.59 11.51
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 32.88 -286.14
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.06 6.33
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.86 2.39
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 12.23 32.78
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 27.06 -36.32
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -4.05
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 14.19
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.71
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 18.58
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 382.52 4.43
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 25.33 13.87
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 15.27 33.75
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 0.00
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -0.65 -272.99
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 1.63 588.45
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -0.21 29.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -0.58 -92.23
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 4.11 -121.86
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 4.62 71.80
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 6.85 2.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.71 1.24
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.08 0.74
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.33 3.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.98 25.92
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 382.52 4.43
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 382.52 4.43
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 18.40 -42.64
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 13.16 -131.12
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 13.13 -64.70
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 39.20 30.93
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 9.90 -65.71