Tractor Supply Co /De/ (NASDAQ: TSCO)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Specialty Retail CIK: 0000916365
Market Cap 28.42 Bn
P/B 12.33
P/E 25.23
P/S 1.93
ROIC (Qtr) 14.39
Div Yield % 2.05
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 7.23
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.72 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.22
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About

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), a prominent name in the retail industry, is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. Operating under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply, the company is publicly traded on the NASDAQ stock exchange. TSCO's primary business activities revolve around catering to the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, animal and pet owners, and those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle. With a strong presence in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and rural communities, TSCO operates...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.83B provides exceptional 26.30x coverage of interest expenses 69.49M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.83B provides strong 33.51x coverage of stock compensation 54.53M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.11B exceeds capital expenditure of 720.77M by 1.54x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 10.48B provides 12.40x coverage of working capital 844.81M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 10.48B provide robust 12.60x coverage of other current liabilities 831.69M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.83B barely covers its investment activities of (860.66M), with a coverage ratio of -2.12, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 184.64M against inventory of 3.25B, the 0.06 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.83B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (483.55M) with a -3.78 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 184.64M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (139.90M), which is -1.32x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of 1.11B represents just -11.47x of debt issuance (96.52M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Specialty Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. 32.20 Bn 27.06 2.69 2.57 Bn
2 WSM Williams Sonoma Inc 29.62 Bn 25.19 3.40 1.47 Bn
3 TSCO Tractor Supply Co /De/ 28.42 Bn 25.23 1.93 5.72 Bn
4 DKS Dick'S Sporting Goods, Inc. 24.98 Bn 88.10 4.64 7.70 Bn
5 CASY Caseys General Stores Inc 24.65 Bn 59.49 1.65 2.92 Bn
6 BBY Best Buy Co Inc 17.85 Bn 11.66 0.41 4.09 Bn
7 MUSA Murphy USA Inc. 15.91 Bn 61.33 1.35 2.75 Bn
8 FIVE Five Below, Inc 11.68 Bn 37.94 2.64 2.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 3.06 2.23
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 24.28 14.70
EV to Debt EV to Debt 5.81 79.39
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 22.16 -40.16
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 17.43 11.51
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 46.22 -286.14
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.17 6.33
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.26 2.39
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 12.33 32.78
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 25.23 -36.32
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.29 -4.05
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 43.80 14.19
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.91 0.71
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 43.56 18.58
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 21.41 4.43
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -7.81 13.87
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -0.89 33.75
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 5.08 0.00
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 0.71 -272.99
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 3.16 588.45
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 0.31 29.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -1.09 -92.23
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 0.48 -121.86
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 75.38 71.80
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 4.74 2.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.42 1.24
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.19 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.07 0.74
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.30 3.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.22 25.92
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 21.41 4.43
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 21.41 4.43
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 12.80 -42.64
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 9.66 -131.12
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 9.21 -64.70
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 36.50 30.93
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 7.20 -65.71