Arcbest
NASDAQ: ARCB
$144.81 ▼ -0.34  (-0.23%)
At close: Jul 8, 2026 · 3:36 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap3.12 Bn
P/E57.15
P/S0.77
Div. Yield0.00
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)223.65 Mn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)3.28
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About

ArcBest Corporation is a multibillion dollar integrated logistics company that leverages technology and a full suite of solutions across multiple modes of transportation to meet customer supply chain needs. The company serves as a single end to end logistics partner with global reach. Headquartered in Fort Smith Arkansas and incorporated in Delaware in 1966 it traces its origins to a local Arkansas freight hauler started over a century ago. Today it employs about fourteen…

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Sector: Industrials Industry: Trucking CIK: 0000894405

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • ArcBest’s Asset-Based segment is demonstrating resilient demand fundamentals masked by top-line revenue decline, with daily shipments up 6% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and 2% in July 2025, reflecting successful onboarding of over 100 new core LTL accounts; this volume growth, despite a 1% decline in weight per shipment in Q2 and 2% in July, indicates the company is capturing higher-frequency, lower-weight shipments from resilient sectors like e-commerce and healthcare, which are less sensitive to industrial and housing downturns, positioning the segment to benefit disproportionately when macroeconomic conditions improve as these accounts tend to be sticky and high-retention; the sequential improvement in asset-based operating ratio by 310 basis points, within the typical seasonal range, shows operational leverage is already kicking in as fixed costs are spread over growing shipment counts, and cost per shipment improved both year-over-year and sequentially due to productivity gains from AI-driven route optimization and dock management systems, suggesting margin expansion is poised to accelerate once revenue per hundredweight stabilizes; moreover, the 5.9% GRI effective August 4, combined with 4% contract and deferred rate increases, provides a clear path to pricing power recovery, and management’s confidence that the GRI timing is typical and needed from a deflationary cost standpoint implies they expect minimal pushback, especially as the company has successfully prepared customers for NMFC changes with minimal disruption, indicating strong pricing discipline and customer trust; finally, the upcoming Investor Day on September 29 represents a rare catalyst in a decade for ArcBest to articulate long-term targets, potentially unveiling margin expansion goals beyond current guidance and highlighting the scalability of its integrated model, where Managed Solutions’ double-digit growth feeds LTL and Truckload profitability, creating a self-reinforcing network effect that peers relying on 3PLs cannot replicate, which could trigger a reevaluation of ArcBest’s valuation multiple as investors recognize its structural advantage in capturing complex, value-added logistics spend. ArcBest
▼ Bear case
  • ArcBest’s Asset-Light segment remains structurally challenged despite recent profitability, with Q2 2025 revenue down 13% year-over-year and July daily revenue down 7%, driven by strategic reduction in less profitable Truckload volumes that has not yet been offset by sufficient Managed Solutions scale; while Managed revenue hit an all-time high, its smaller shipment sizes and lower revenue per shipment continue to drag on segment revenue per shipment, which declined 7% year-over-year in Q2 and remains pressured, indicating the segment’s mix shift toward lower-yielding business may be sacrificing top-line growth for marginal profitability gains that are fragile and reversible if Truckload demand rebounds unexpectedly or if Managed growth slows due to increased competition in the 3PL space; moreover, the company’s expectation of Asset-Light non-GAAP operating income ranging from breakeven to $1 million in Q3 2025 reflects limited margin expansion potential, and the reliance on productivity improvements—such as the 15% gain cited in Asset-Light—may be nearing diminishing returns, especially as wage pressures persist and union labor costs in the Asset-Based segment continue to rise, with a $3 million year-over-year increase in workers’ comp costs already impacting Q2 results, signaling that cost savings from operational efficiencies are being offset by escalating labor expenses; additionally, the 5.9% GRI, while framed as typical, is being implemented in a period where historical seasonality shows only one month of GRI impact in Q3 versus two months this year, yet management acknowledged the volume subject to GRI is not as great as in prior years due to customers shifting to contract pricing, limiting the increase’s revenue contribution and suggesting pricing power is weaker than implied, particularly as competitors may respond with promotional pricing to retain share in a soft market; finally, the CEO transition introduces execution risk, as Judy McReynolds’ retirement at year-end removes a leader with deep credibility in navigating cyclical downturns, and while Seth Runser is experienced, the market may question whether he can sustain the same level of strategic discipline and innovation momentum, especially if the Investor Day fails to deliver concrete, differentiated long-term targets beyond current operational improvements, leaving investors without a clear vision for how ArcBest will outperform peers in a prolonged freight recession or defend its market share against larger, scale-advantaged carriers that are increasing investments in automation and network optimization. ArcBest

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Trucking
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 TFII TFI International Inc. 160.26 Bn1,790.6520.372.45 Bn
2 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 45.40 Bn42.188.320.04 Bn
3 XPO XPO, Inc. 24.25 Bn69.692.923.28 Bn
4 KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. 12.57 Bn370.671.681.14 Bn
5 SAIA Saia Inc 11.19 Bn43.873.440.11 Bn
6 SNDR Schneider National, Inc. 6.37 Bn65.101.120.40 Bn
7 RXO RXO, Inc. 4.69 Bn-44.680.820.45 Bn
8 ARCB Arcbest Corp /De/ 3.12 Bn57.150.770.22 Bn