XPO, Inc. (NYSE: XPO)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Trucking CIK: 0001166003
Market Cap 23.75 Bn
P/B 12.76
P/E 75.14
P/S 2.91
ROIC (Qtr) 7.17
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 4.63
Total Debt (Qtr) 4.09 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.20
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About

XPO, Inc. (XPO), a leading provider of freight transportation services, operates in two reportable segments: North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The company's business is characterized by its proprietary technology, enabling it to efficiently move goods through customers' supply chains in North America and Europe. XPO's main business activities involve providing freight transportation services, including LTL and truckload services, to a wide range of customers across various industries. The company operates a large...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 986M provides strong 12.81x coverage of stock compensation 77M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 6.34B provides 84.48x coverage of working capital 75M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 6.34B provide robust 7.25x coverage of other current liabilities 874M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 986M provides solid 0.63x coverage of current liabilities 1.55B, showing strong operational health.
  • Operating cash flow of 986M fully covers other non-current liabilities 914M by 1.08x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 986M barely covers its investment activities of (616M), with a coverage ratio of -1.60, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating earnings of 656M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 521M, with a 1.26 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Free cash flow of 370M represents just -2.20x of debt issuance (168M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • High depreciation of 521M relative to operating cash flow of 986M, which is 0.53x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.
  • Operating cash flow of 986M barely covers operating expenses of 843M with a 1.17 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Trucking
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 48.73 Bn 782.67 33.27 0.08 Bn
2 XPO XPO, Inc. 23.75 Bn 75.14 2.91 4.09 Bn
3 SAIA Saia Inc 10.38 Bn 36.60 3.21 0.35 Bn
4 TFII TFI International Inc. 10.05 Bn 32.37 1.27 3.33 Bn
5 KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. 9.89 Bn 11.13 1.36 3.22 Bn
6 SNDR Schneider National, Inc. 4.98 Bn 12.00 1.10 0.52 Bn
7 ARCB Arcbest Corp /De/ 2.70 Bn 45.25 0.96 0.46 Bn
8 RXO RXO, Inc. 2.51 Bn -25.14 0.44 0.67 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 3.36 1.82
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 27.91 30.89
EV to Debt EV to Debt 6.73 334.88
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 41.95 41.39
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 23.36 30.41
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 74.38 8.80
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.16 1.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.37 3.58
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 12.76 8.76
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 75.14 71.24
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 1.04
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 27.17
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.34
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 16.21
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.00 2,509.13
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 13.73 -384.47
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 26.02 6.65
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -16.70 -139.40
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 2.35 -265.30
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -5.75 -150.93
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -7.61 -53,829.57
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -19.22 -170.98
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 293.62 59.93
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 2.97 -3.53
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.00 1.07
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.20 0.23
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.05 1.44
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.20 0.64
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.00 2,509.13
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.00 2,509.13
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.40 10.72
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 8.04 1.50
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 5.36 0.13
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 60.40 46.24
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 3.90 -0.55