X Financial (NYSE: XYF)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0001725033
Market Cap 271.28 Mn
P/B 0.24
P/E 1.08
P/S 0.25
ROIC (Qtr) 116.35
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 23.92
Total Debt (Qtr) 480.79 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.43

About

X Financial Inc., or XYF, is a leading online personal finance company based in China. Established in 2014 and controlled by Mr. Yue (Justin) Tang, the company specializes in facilitating loans to prime borrowers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions. X Financial's operations are driven by its proprietary big data-driven technology, which enables it to establish strategic partnerships with financial institutions and manage borrower risk effectively. The company's main business activities involve providing differentiated loan...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.06B provides 4.28x coverage of total debt 480.79M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 2.06B provide exceptional 31.15x coverage of deferred revenue 66.06M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Retained earnings of 773.40M provide strong 145.62x coverage of intangibles 5.31M, indicating quality earnings retention.
  • Cash position of 217.69M provides strong 3.30x coverage of deferred revenue 66.06M, ensuring service delivery capability.
  • Retained earnings of 773.40M represent substantial 0.69x of equity 1.11B, indicating strong internal capital generation.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 0 provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 66.06M, which is 0x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Tax assets of 42.68M provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 135.72M, which is 0.31x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.
  • Cash position of 217.69M provides only -2361.65x coverage of interest expenses of (92177.95), indicating potential refinancing risks in a rising rate environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 0 provides minimal 0x coverage of tax expenses of 64.36M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating cash flow of 0 barely covers operating expenses of 155.51M with a 0 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets -0.09 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -0.93 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt -0.40 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -0.62 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -0.76 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -0.94 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap -0.72 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev -0.18 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.24 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 1.08 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % 0.00 4.82
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -3,429.23 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 1.07 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 32.65 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 35.95 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 36.81 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 52.93 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF Growth (1y) % 0.00 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 55.32 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.08 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout Ratio 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.43 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -3,429.23 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -3,429.23 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % 0.00 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 203.35 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 28.57 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 43.60 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 22.80 -23.76