Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE: XPOF)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Leisure CIK: 0001802156
Market Cap 242.51 Mn
P/B -1.05
P/E -4.90
P/S 0.77
ROIC (Qtr) -17.05
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -2.12
Total Debt (Qtr) 375.06 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.63
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About

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) is a prominent player in the global fitness industry, holding the position as the largest franchisor of boutique fitness brands. With a presence in 49 US states and 22 additional countries, XPOF operates a diverse platform of ten brands, catering to various fitness verticals such as Pilates, indoor cycling, barre, stretching, rowing, dancing, boxing, running, functional training, and yoga. XPOF's revenue generation primarily stems from its franchise model. This model involves providing support to franchisees who...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 41.46M provide 4.11x coverage of short-term debt 10.10M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 15.43M exceeds capital expenditure of 2.97M by 5.20x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 160.22M provides 26.76x coverage of working capital 5.99M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Retained earnings of (707.65M) represent substantial 3.07x of equity (230.37M), indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Operating cash flow of 18.40M provides strong 3.25x coverage of inventory 5.66M, indicating efficient inventory management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 18.40M barely covers its investment activities of (2.51M), with a coverage ratio of -7.32, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 18.40M provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 103.05M, which is 0.18x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 18.40M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 10.69M, with a 1.72 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • High receivables of 18.64M relative to inventory of 5.66M (3.29 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of (112000) show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 19.04M, with a -0.01 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Leisure
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 AS Amer Sports, Inc. 22.38 Bn 71.89 3.67 1.87 Bn
2 HAS Hasbro, Inc. 13.30 Bn 46.47 3.26 3.32 Bn
3 PLNT Planet Fitness, Inc. 7.78 Bn 37.79 6.04 2.58 Bn
4 GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. 7.40 Bn 80.24 4.75 0.90 Bn
5 LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. 6.29 Bn 21.85 2.16 4.13 Bn
6 MAT Mattel Inc /De/ 5.43 Bn 12.57 1.04 2.59 Bn
7 YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. 3.97 Bn 24.75 2.17 0.22 Bn
8 MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. 2.95 Bn 56.80 2.91 1.20 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.64 1.19
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 31.69 -6.09
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.55 14.49
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -5,207.26 -159.90
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -115.24 -4.06
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 37.79 0.74
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.40 -0.64
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.85 4.65
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -1.05 4.75
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -4.90 12.00
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -0.51
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 3.11
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.22
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 6.13
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 -30.68
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 48.32 -13.50
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 9.77 1,190.33
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 13.88
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -100.78 -111.75
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -121.81 -165.31
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -100.80 -1,562.20
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -52.45 -1,555.34
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -90.91 -377.44
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 4,878.33 10.93
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -0.07 17.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.89 0.73
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.44 3.31
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.06 4.80
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.63 2.35
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -30.68
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 -30.68
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 6.00 -57.55
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -0.04 -65.38
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -15.52 -69.55
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 67.70 46.51
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -15.70 -74.45