Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Walmart

NASDAQ: WMT

$109.47 ▲ +1.07 (+0.99%)

At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap862.66 Bn

P/E37.36

P/S1.19

Div. Yield0.00

ROIC (Qtr)0.01

Total Debt (Qtr)47.56 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)6.08

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About

Walmart Inc. is a people led technology powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in retail stores and through eCommerce and to access its service offerings. Each week the company serves approximately 280 million customers who visit more than 10,900 stores in 19 countries and use its numerous eCommerce websites and mobile applications.

The company generates revenue primarily from the sale of merchandise through its retail stores, warehouse clubs and eCommerce platforms. Net sales consist of groceries, general merchandise, health and wellness products and other categories such as fuel, financial services, advertising, marketplace and fulfillment services. Membership fees from Sam's Club and Walmart+ also contribute to operating income.

The company operates through the following segments: Walmart U. S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U. S.

• Walmart U. S. operates 4,611 stores across all 50 states, Washington D. C. and Puerto Rico under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands. It provides a seamless omnichannel experience integrating retail stores and eCommerce, including site to store pickup and delivery. The segment sells groceries, general merchandise such as electronics, toys, apparel and home goods, and health and wellness products including pharmacy and optical services. Walmart U. S. also offers private label brands like Great Value and Equate, advertising solutions for brands, supply chain and fulfillment services to online marketplace sellers, and financial services such as money transfers and check cashing.

• Walmart International operates 5,743 stores across 18 countries outside the United States through wholly owned subsidiaries in Canada, Chile, China and Africa and majority owned subsidiaries in India, Mexico and Central America. It offers retail and wholesale formats including supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs and cash and carry stores along with eCommerce through websites and mobile applications. The segment provides an omnichannel experience with pickup and delivery services from approximately 3,300 locations. Walmart International sells groceries, general merchandise and health and wellness products, leveraging both global private brands and market specific brands such as Aurrera and Lider. It also builds advertising, marketplace, fulfillment, financial services and healthcare offerings in its international markets.

• Sam's Club U. S. operates 601 membership only warehouse clubs in 44 states and Puerto Rico and runs samsclub.com and the Sam's Club mobile application. It offers two membership tiers: Club membership for a fifty dollar annual fee and Plus membership for a one hundred ten dollar annual fee, providing benefits such as free curbside pickup, free delivery from club, fuel discounts and Scan & Go mobile checkout. The segment sells groceries, general merchandise including home improvement, technology and entertainment items, health and wellness services such as pharmacy, optical and hearing care, and fuel. Sam's Club U. S. also provides the Member's Mark private label brand, advertising solutions for brands, operational insights for suppliers, and additional services such as tire and battery installation, photo and tech assistance, and certain financial services.

Walmart Inc. holds a leading position in the global retail industry as one of the largest retailers by revenue and store count. The company competes with brick and mortar stores, eCommerce platforms, omnichannel retailers, discount and department stores, supermarkets, supercenter type stores, membership only warehouse clubs, gasoline stations and social commerce platforms. Its competitive advantages stem from its everyday low pricing strategy, everyday low cost focus, extensive supply chain network, scale, technology investments including AI powered tools, and a robust omnichannel model that integrates physical stores with digital services.

The company serves a broad base of individual consumers and families who shop for groceries, household goods, apparel and electronics across its retail stores and eCommerce sites. Sam's Club U. S. additionally serves small business owners and institutions that require bulk purchasing and warehouse club services. Walmart International serves customers in diverse markets ranging from urban centers to rural communities in the countries where it operates.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Walmart's strategic shift toward higher-margin commerce solutions like advertising, marketplace, and membership is creating a durable profit engine that is underappreciated by the market. These businesses collectively represented approximately one-third of operating income in Q1 FY27, with advertising growing 36% in Walmart U.S. and membership fee revenue increasing 17% enterprise-wide. The acceleration in marketplace sales—up nearly 50% in the U.S.—is being fueled by deeper integration with fulfillment services, where units shipped same-day or next-day through Walmart Fulfillment Services grew nearly 150% in Q1. This creates a virtuous cycle: broader assortment attracts more sellers, which drives advertising spend and membership engagement, all while leveraging the existing store and club network as low-cost fulfillment infrastructure. The market is underestimating how this mix shift insulates earnings from core retail volatility, particularly as higher-margin businesses scale without proportional capital investment, improving long-term return on invested capital.
Walmart's AI-native transformation, exemplified by Sparky, is unlocking incremental customer value and engagement that is not yet fully reflected in financial performance. Weekly active users of Sparky grew over 100% in the last quarter, with response quality improving 40% year-to-date, and Sparky users exhibit an average order value 35% higher than non-users. Beyond convenience, Sparky now enables personalized replenishment, meal planning, and in-store reordering, shifting usage from general merchandise discovery to everyday essentials like food and consumables—where units purchased through Sparky have grown more than 4x since the prior quarter. This behavioral shift increases basket size and frequency, directly boosting transaction growth and units per transaction, which were already the strongest in six quarters in the U.S. The market overlooks how AI-driven personalization is deepening customer relationships and increasing lifetime value, particularly as Sparky expands into Spanish-language support and cross-border marketplace integration in Canada and Mexico, creating a scalable platform for global engagement.
Sam’s Club’s Member’s Mark Community, now exceeding 150,000 participants—a threefold increase in two years—is a hidden catalyst for sustainable differentiation and pricing power that the market is ignoring. This co-creation model drives product innovation, with member feedback directly shaping over 400,000 activities, from prototype testing to flavor surveys, resulting in exclusive offerings like Ultra-Filtered Milk Shakes and apparel co-designed with millennial and Gen Z members. The community’s influence was instrumental in achieving the 'Made Without' milestone across 100% of Member’s Mark food and beverage products, removing over 40 unwanted ingredients without compromising taste or value—a private brand industry benchmark. By transforming membership from transactional to relational engagement, Sam’s Club is increasing retention, willingness to pay, and organic advocacy, particularly as members spend 4x more than nonmembers overall and 7x more on eCommerce annually. The market fails to recognize how this engagement engine strengthens the Membership value proposition beyond fuel savings, creating a defensible moat in a competitive landscape where rivals struggle to replicate authentic co-creation at scale.

Walmart's strategic shift toward higher-margin commerce solutions like advertising, marketplace, and membership is creating a durable profit engine that is underappreciated by the market. These businesses collectively represented approximately one-third of operating income in Q1 FY27, with advertising growing 36% in Walmart U.S. and membership fee revenue increasing 17% enterprise-wide. The acceleration in marketplace sales—up nearly 50% in the U.S.—is being fueled by deeper integration with fulfillment services, where units shipped same-day or next-day through Walmart Fulfillment Services grew nearly 150% in Q1. This creates a virtuous cycle: broader assortment attracts more sellers, which drives advertising spend and membership engagement, all while leveraging the existing store and club network as low-cost fulfillment infrastructure. The market is underestimating how this mix shift insulates earnings from core retail volatility, particularly as higher-margin businesses scale without proportional capital investment, improving long-term return on invested capital.
Walmart's AI-native transformation, exemplified by Sparky, is unlocking incremental customer value and engagement that is not yet fully reflected in financial performance. Weekly active users of Sparky grew over 100% in the last quarter, with response quality improving 40% year-to-date, and Sparky users exhibit an average order value 35% higher than non-users. Beyond convenience, Sparky now enables personalized replenishment, meal planning, and in-store reordering, shifting usage from general merchandise discovery to everyday essentials like food and consumables—where units purchased through Sparky have grown more than 4x since the prior quarter. This behavioral shift increases basket size and frequency, directly boosting transaction growth and units per transaction, which were already the strongest in six quarters in the U.S. The market overlooks how AI-driven personalization is deepening customer relationships and increasing lifetime value, particularly as Sparky expands into Spanish-language support and cross-border marketplace integration in Canada and Mexico, creating a scalable platform for global engagement.
Sam’s Club’s Member’s Mark Community, now exceeding 150,000 participants—a threefold increase in two years—is a hidden catalyst for sustainable differentiation and pricing power that the market is ignoring. This co-creation model drives product innovation, with member feedback directly shaping over 400,000 activities, from prototype testing to flavor surveys, resulting in exclusive offerings like Ultra-Filtered Milk Shakes and apparel co-designed with millennial and Gen Z members. The community’s influence was instrumental in achieving the 'Made Without' milestone across 100% of Member’s Mark food and beverage products, removing over 40 unwanted ingredients without compromising taste or value—a private brand industry benchmark. By transforming membership from transactional to relational engagement, Sam’s Club is increasing retention, willingness to pay, and organic advocacy, particularly as members spend 4x more than nonmembers overall and 7x more on eCommerce annually. The market fails to recognize how this engagement engine strengthens the Membership value proposition beyond fuel savings, creating a defensible moat in a competitive landscape where rivals struggle to replicate authentic co-creation at scale.

▼ Bear case

Walmart’s dependence on fuel-sensitive logistics exposes the business to persistent margin pressure that management is understating, particularly as elevated diesel prices continue to strain distribution and fulfillment operations. The company absorbed approximately $175 million—or 250 basis points—of operating income growth in Q1 FY27 due to higher-than-planned fuel costs, a headwind CFO John Rainey acknowledged could grow larger in Q2 if prices remain elevated. While Walmart reiterated its full-year guidance, it did so by assuming the first quarter would be the lowest for operating income growth, implying a significant recovery is expected in later quarters—a assumption that may not hold if fuel prices stay above $4.60 per gallon, as suggested by recent geopolitical tensions. The average fuel fill-up at Walmart stations falling below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022 signals ongoing consumer stress, which could suppress discretionary spending and increase pressure to absorb costs rather than pass them on, directly eroding margins in its lowest-margin grocery segment.
The company’s reliance on transient tailwinds like elevated tax refunds to drive general merchandise strength creates a risky foundation for sustained growth, as these benefits are fading and not being replaced by equivalent structural drivers. CFO Rainey explicitly noted that higher tax returns likely muted the impact of high gas prices in Q1, warning that consumer pressure would increase as those effects lapse in Q2. General merchandise comps were positive in the U.S., but this was partly driven by tax stimulus—a factor Walmart admitted was contributing to outsized growth in categories like fashion and beauty. As this tailwind dissipates, the underlying demand for general merchandise may prove weaker than suggested, especially as lower-income consumers remain budget-conscious and higher-income shoppers show signs of shifting spending toward experiences over goods. The market is ignoring how the lack of durable, non-cyclical drivers in core merchandise could leave Walmart vulnerable to a growth slowdown once temporary supports vanish.
Walmart’s aggressive rollback strategy—now at approximately 7,200 active rollbacks, up over 20% year-over-year—risks training customers to wait for promotions and undermining everyday low price (EDLP) credibility, particularly as competitors increase price investments to regain market share. While management highlights rollbacks as a response to consumer price sensitivity, the sheer scale and frequency of promotions suggest a growing reliance on tactical pricing rather than intrinsic value perception. This approach could condition customers to delay purchases until rollbacks occur, compressing margins and increasing promotional complexity. Simultaneously, rivals are openly discussing price offensives to take back share, and Walmart’s willingness to use price gaps to defend share—acknowledged by CEO Furner—implies a potential margin-eroding price war. The market overlooks how this dynamic could force Walmart into a high-cost, low-margin trap where winning share requires sacrificing profitability, especially as its scale advantage diminishes in the face of agile, digitally-native competitors.

Walmart’s dependence on fuel-sensitive logistics exposes the business to persistent margin pressure that management is understating, particularly as elevated diesel prices continue to strain distribution and fulfillment operations. The company absorbed approximately $175 million—or 250 basis points—of operating income growth in Q1 FY27 due to higher-than-planned fuel costs, a headwind CFO John Rainey acknowledged could grow larger in Q2 if prices remain elevated. While Walmart reiterated its full-year guidance, it did so by assuming the first quarter would be the lowest for operating income growth, implying a significant recovery is expected in later quarters—a assumption that may not hold if fuel prices stay above $4.60 per gallon, as suggested by recent geopolitical tensions. The average fuel fill-up at Walmart stations falling below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022 signals ongoing consumer stress, which could suppress discretionary spending and increase pressure to absorb costs rather than pass them on, directly eroding margins in its lowest-margin grocery segment.
The company’s reliance on transient tailwinds like elevated tax refunds to drive general merchandise strength creates a risky foundation for sustained growth, as these benefits are fading and not being replaced by equivalent structural drivers. CFO Rainey explicitly noted that higher tax returns likely muted the impact of high gas prices in Q1, warning that consumer pressure would increase as those effects lapse in Q2. General merchandise comps were positive in the U.S., but this was partly driven by tax stimulus—a factor Walmart admitted was contributing to outsized growth in categories like fashion and beauty. As this tailwind dissipates, the underlying demand for general merchandise may prove weaker than suggested, especially as lower-income consumers remain budget-conscious and higher-income shoppers show signs of shifting spending toward experiences over goods. The market is ignoring how the lack of durable, non-cyclical drivers in core merchandise could leave Walmart vulnerable to a growth slowdown once temporary supports vanish.
Walmart’s aggressive rollback strategy—now at approximately 7,200 active rollbacks, up over 20% year-over-year—risks training customers to wait for promotions and undermining everyday low price (EDLP) credibility, particularly as competitors increase price investments to regain market share. While management highlights rollbacks as a response to consumer price sensitivity, the sheer scale and frequency of promotions suggest a growing reliance on tactical pricing rather than intrinsic value perception. This approach could condition customers to delay purchases until rollbacks occur, compressing margins and increasing promotional complexity. Simultaneously, rivals are openly discussing price offensives to take back share, and Walmart’s willingness to use price gaps to defend share—acknowledged by CEO Furner—implies a potential margin-eroding price war. The market overlooks how this dynamic could force Walmart into a high-cost, low-margin trap where winning share requires sacrificing profitability, especially as its scale advantage diminishes in the face of agile, digitally-native competitors.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Discount Stores

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	WMT	Walmart Inc.	862.66 Bn	37.36	1.19	47.56 Bn
2	COST	Costco Wholesale Corp /New	410.89 Bn	48.09	1.44	5.69 Bn
3	TGT	Target Corp	61.06 Bn	17.52	0.57	15.42 Bn
4	DG	Dollar General Corp	25.36 Bn	16.76	0.59	4.58 Bn
5	DLTR	Dollar Tree, Inc.	22.75 Bn	848.11	1.15	2.93 Bn
6	BJ	BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.	11.75 Bn	20.56	0.53	0.77 Bn
7	PSMT	Pricesmart Inc	5.65 Bn	35.18	0.99	0.12 Bn
8	TBBB	Bbb Foods Inc	4.68 Bn	3.93	1.03	0.02 Bn

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Investment Thesis

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

Research Tools

Developers

About

Investment Thesis

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

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