Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI)

Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Discount Stores CIK: 0001639300
Market Cap 6.85 Bn
P/B 3.74
P/E 30.61
P/S 2.70
ROIC (Qtr) 8.59
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 18.59
Total Debt (Qtr) 670.71 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.37
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About

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is a prominent player in the retail industry, specifically dealing with closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States. The company operates a chain of stores that offer a wide variety of brand name products at discounted prices, creating a unique shopping experience for its customers. Ollie's main business activities revolve around buying and selling closeout merchandise and excess inventory from major manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The company has a significant presence...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 261.93M provides strong 13.90x coverage of stock compensation 18.84M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.18B provides 3.25x coverage of total debt 670.71M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 261.93M provides solid 0.72x coverage of current liabilities 361.59M, showing strong operational health.
  • Retained earnings of 1.52B provide full 2.65x coverage of long-term debt 574.41M, indicating strong internal capital position.
  • Operating cash flow of 261.93M fully covers other non-current liabilities 86.45M by 3.03x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 261.93M barely covers its investment activities of (218.01M), with a coverage ratio of -1.20, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 144.70M against inventory of 702.83M, the 0.21 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Free cash flow of 154.07M represents just -128.83x of debt issuance (1.20M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 261.93M is outpaced by equity issuance of (21M) (-12.47 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • Short-term investments of 41.31M exceed receivables of 2.54M by 16.28x, indicating potentially inefficient capital allocation given collection cycle needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Products and Services Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Discount Stores
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 WMT Walmart Inc. 1,493.21 Bn 103.91 3.66 68.42 Bn
2 COST Costco Wholesale Corp /New 443.66 Bn 356.36 5.82 8.10 Bn
3 TGT Target Corp 61.67 Bn 21.00 0.82 20.04 Bn
4 DG Dollar General Corp 32.90 Bn 23.24 0.83 16.51 Bn
5 DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 27.88 Bn -9.55 1.47 7.66 Bn
6 BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. 13.09 Bn 22.76 0.62 2.70 Bn
7 OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. 6.85 Bn 30.61 2.70 0.67 Bn
8 PSMT Pricesmart Inc 4.69 Bn 31.14 0.87 0.33 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.55 2.61
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 27.79 36.59
EV to Debt EV to Debt 10.85 13.49
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 24.74 37.61
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 22.11 35.41
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 47.25 66.89
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.06 1.06
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.87 2.05
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.74 12.39
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 30.61 59.65
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 2,558.05
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 19.94
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 1.57
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 21.35
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 12.56
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 22.35 -8.17
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 12.44 36.06
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -7.48
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 7.66 -44.54
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 9.58 0.21
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 6.47 -49.73
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 6.47 -68.31
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 7.67 -17.04
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 82.49 37.06
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 14.11 10.99
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.89 1.82
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.40 0.20
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.50 1.14
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.37 1.24
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 12.56
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 12.56
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 13.70 4.61
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 11.60 0.99
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 11.60 2.30
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 40.70 24.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 8.80 1.03