Winmark Corp (NASDAQ: WINA)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Specialty Retail CIK: 0000908315
Market Cap 2.29 Bn
P/B 94.83
P/E 204.54
P/S 53.82
ROIC (Qtr) 133.33
Div Yield % 0.23
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.22
Total Debt (Qtr) 62.55 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -2.37
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About

Winmark Corp, popularly known by its ticker symbol WINA, is a prominent player in the franchising industry, with a focus on sustainability and small business formation. The company operates by providing guidance and support to entrepreneurs interested in managing one of its award-winning resale franchises, including Plato's Closet, Once Upon A Child, Play It Again Sports, Style Encore, and Music Go Round. As of December 30, 2023, Winmark boasted 1,319 franchises in operation across the United States and Canada, with over 2,800 available territories. Winmark's...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 44.83M provides robust 0.72x coverage of total debt 62.55M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Robust free cash flow of 44.66M exceeds capital expenditure of 172700 by 258.59x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 44.83M provides exceptional 17.74x coverage of interest expenses 2.53M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 44.83M provides strong 12.27x coverage of stock compensation 3.65M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 44.83M provides 1.66x coverage of SG&A expenses 27.04M, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 44.83M barely covers its investment activities of (172700), with a coverage ratio of -259.59, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 44.83M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (39.73M) with a -1.13 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • High receivables of 1.65M relative to inventory of 283700 (5.83 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 44.66M represents just -7.44x of debt issuance (6M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Tangible assets of 50.76M provide limited backing for working capital of 35.83M, which is 1.42x, suggesting increased operational risk in market downturns.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Specialty Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. 32.20 Bn 27.06 2.69 2.57 Bn
2 WSM Williams Sonoma Inc 29.62 Bn 25.19 3.40 1.47 Bn
3 TSCO Tractor Supply Co /De/ 28.42 Bn 25.23 1.93 5.72 Bn
4 DKS Dick'S Sporting Goods, Inc. 24.98 Bn 88.10 4.64 7.70 Bn
5 CASY Caseys General Stores Inc 24.65 Bn 59.49 1.65 2.92 Bn
6 BBY Best Buy Co Inc 17.85 Bn 11.66 0.41 4.09 Bn
7 MUSA Murphy USA Inc. 15.91 Bn 61.33 1.35 2.75 Bn
8 FIVE Five Below, Inc 11.68 Bn 37.94 2.64 2.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 42.65 2.23
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 141.96 14.70
EV to Debt EV to Debt 36.64 79.39
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 114.51 -40.16
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 111.90 11.51
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -13,675.81 -286.14
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.00 6.33
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 53.97 2.39
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 94.83 32.78
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 204.54 -36.32
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.04 -4.05
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 96.30 14.19
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 11.22 0.71
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 89.27 18.58
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 21.90 4.43
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 41.28 13.87
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 6.94 33.75
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -12.34 0.00
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 2.06 -272.99
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 3.05 588.45
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 2.69 29.27
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 3.60 -92.23
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 1.92 -121.86
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 5.91 71.80
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 4.24 2.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.57 1.24
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.88 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 5.51 0.74
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 5.96 3.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -2.37 25.92
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 21.90 4.43
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 21.90 4.43
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 66.80 -42.64
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 65.50 -131.12
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 62.51 -64.70
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 96.30 30.93
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 48.80 -65.71