Origin Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: ORGN)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Chemicals CIK: 0001802457
Market Cap 22.05 Mn
P/B 0.07
P/E -0.32
P/S 0.88
ROIC (Qtr) -26.20
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -43.22
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.67 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.02
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About

Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) is a company that operates in the innovative materials and sustainable solutions industry. Its main business activities revolve around the development of a proprietary biomass conversion technology that can replace petroleum-based materials with decarbonized materials. The company's mission is to enable the world's transition to sustainable materials. Origin Materials' operations span across various countries, with a focus on creating versatile chemical "building blocks" from biomass. The company generates revenue...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 34.06M provide 16.53x coverage of short-term debt 2.06M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 327.29M provides 57.69x coverage of total debt 5.67M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 327.29M provides 4.62x coverage of working capital 70.85M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Short-term investments of 20.28M provide solid 2.18x coverage of other current liabilities 9.30M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Tangible assets of 327.29M provide robust 35.18x coverage of other current liabilities 9.30M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (29.58M) barely covers its investment activities of 16.98M, with a coverage ratio of -1.74, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of 16.98M provide weak support for R&D spending of 13.12M, which is 1.29x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • High receivables of 17.99M relative to inventory of 635000 (28.33 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (29.58M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 9.12M, with a -3.24 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (52.40M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 22.82M, with a -2.30 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Chemicals
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 DOW Dow Inc. 22.27 Bn -8.49 0.56 19.60 Bn
2 CE Celanese Corp 6.07 Bn 3.05 0.57 13.13 Bn
3 MEOH Methanex Corp 4.41 Bn 45.97 2.24 3.64 Bn
4 OLN OLIN Corp 3.95 Bn 50.79 0.65 3.30 Bn
5 HUN Huntsman CORP 2.92 Bn 8.95 0.39 2.40 Bn
6 REX REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp 1.12 Bn 22.21 1.72 0.02 Bn
7 TROX Tronox Holdings plc 1.06 Bn -9.74 0.40 3.46 Bn
8 GPRE Green Plains Inc. 0.89 Bn -7.32 0.42 0.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets -0.02 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 0.19 10.63
EV to Debt EV to Debt -1.02 4.16
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 0.08 -392.22
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 0.08 11.31
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 0.11 18.26
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap -0.26 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev -0.23 4.23
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.07 1.69
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -0.32 -53.47
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -12.67
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 17.68
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.50
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1,007.72
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -417.10 -82.93
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -32.72 22.09
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -39.60 4.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -8.48
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 14.03 -121.97
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 6.70 -25.84
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 15.63 -147.36
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 15.89 -143.26
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 18.97 -108.77
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 31.26 -91.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -88.38 0.31
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.08 0.63
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 2.56 1.02
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 6.33 2.84
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.02 1.19
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -417.10 -82.93
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -417.10 -82.93
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -229.70 -96.08
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -272.29 -110.82
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -272.94 -114.07
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 1.80 10.84
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -275.00 -117.97