Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Chemicals CIK: 0001309402
Market Cap 888.02 Mn
P/B 1.16
P/E -7.32
P/S 0.42
ROIC (Qtr) 3.65
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -26.57
Total Debt (Qtr) 568.92 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.74
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About

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE), a prominent player in the biorefining industry, has established itself as a leading producer of low-carbon fuels since its inception in 2004. Headquartered in Iowa, the company has expanded its operations beyond the United States, becoming a significant value-added agricultural technology company. GPRE's primary business activities encompass the production of ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, and renewable corn oil, along with grain procurement, commodity marketing, and fuel storage and transportation services. GPRE's...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 230.13M provide 3.90x coverage of short-term debt 59.06M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 110.86M provides exceptional 398.79x coverage of minority interest expenses 278000, showing strong core operations.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 1.58B provides 2.77x coverage of total debt 568.92M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Cash position of 230.13M provides exceptional 827.81x coverage of minority interest expenses 278000, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 110.86M fully covers other non-current liabilities 27.86M by 3.98x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 110.86M barely covers its investment activities of 162.13M, with a coverage ratio of 0.68, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 110.86M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (721000) with a -153.76 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 253.57M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of (142.71M), with a -1.78 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating cash flow of 110.86M provides minimal -2.14x coverage of tax expenses of (51.75M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of (96.36M) show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 98.43M, with a -0.98 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Chemicals
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 DOW Dow Inc. 22.27 Bn -8.49 0.56 19.60 Bn
2 CE Celanese Corp 6.07 Bn 3.05 0.57 13.13 Bn
3 MEOH Methanex Corp 4.41 Bn 45.97 2.24 3.64 Bn
4 OLN OLIN Corp 3.95 Bn 50.79 0.65 3.30 Bn
5 HUN Huntsman CORP 2.92 Bn 8.95 0.39 2.40 Bn
6 REX REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp 1.12 Bn 22.21 1.72 0.02 Bn
7 TROX Tronox Holdings plc 1.06 Bn -9.74 0.40 3.46 Bn
8 GPRE Green Plains Inc. 0.89 Bn -7.32 0.42 0.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.78 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 11.08 10.63
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.16 4.16
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -12.75 -392.22
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 39.40 11.31
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 4.85 18.26
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.38 1.76
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.59 4.23
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.16 1.69
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -7.32 -53.47
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -168.21 -12.67
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 17.68
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.50
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1,007.72
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -1.26 -82.93
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 407.70 22.09
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 9.90 4.03
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -8.48
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -44.60 -121.97
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -27.69 -25.84
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -123.10 -147.36
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -126.81 -143.26
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -39.53 -108.77
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 432.14 -91.55
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 4.96 0.31
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.33 0.63
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) -0.02 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.86 1.02
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.80 2.84
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.74 1.19
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -1.26 -82.93
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -1.26 -82.93
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 0.10 -96.08
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -4.61 -110.82
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -8.27 -114.07
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 6.50 10.84
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -5.80 -117.97