Green Plains
NASDAQ: GPRE
$16.95 ▼ -0.25  (-1.45%)
At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap1.18 Bn
P/E90.00
P/S0.61
Div. Yield0.00
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)458.24 Mn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)-25.89
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About

Green Plains Inc is a renewable fuels and agricultural technology company headquartered in Iowa. It produces low carbon intensity ethanol and related co products such as high protein feeds and corn oil from locally sourced corn. The company operates nine biorefineries across the Midwest with a combined annual corn processing capacity of approximately 287 million bushels. Its core activities include ethanol production storage and transportation as well as marketing of…

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Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Chemicals CIK: 0001309402

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Green Plains' Q1 FY26 results demonstrate a strong operational turnaround, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by $95 million year-over-year. The company's focus on operational excellence, favorable pricing environment, and cost structure simplification has driven this improvement. The carbon program contributed $55 million of EBITDA in its first full quarter, highlighting the significant value generated by this initiative. The company's ability to achieve high production rates, set new records at several facilities, and maintain strong ethanol, corn oil, and protein yields underscores the sustainability of these production rates and the potential for continued growth. The company's carbon strategy is a key growth driver, with the potential to generate $200 million to $225 million of EBITDA for FY26. The successful completion of construction and start-up of carbon sequestration projects, along with near long-term capture rates, positions Green Plains to maximize the value of 45Z production tax credits. The company's disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on sustaining CapEx, efficiency and CI improvement projects, and potential growth opportunities, indicates a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value. The structural backdrop for Green Plains' products, including ethanol, corn oil, and protein, is highly positive, with strong sustainable demand and improving pricing dynamics. The company's proactive risk management strategy, including hedging adjustments, demonstrates a disciplined approach to protecting margins and cash flow. The company's strong balance sheet, with over $200 million in cash and restricted cash, provides financial flexibility for capital deployment and growth initiatives. The company's focus on operational excellence, carbon strategy, and disciplined capital allocation positions Green Plains for sustained growth and improved financial performance.
  • Green Plains' commercial strategy is well-positioned to capitalize on favorable market dynamics. The Renewable Fuel Standard's finalized renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027 support strong demand for the company's low CI corn oil. The company's ultra-high protein product continues to gain recognition as a differentiated high-quality ingredient, driving strong demand and pricing. The company's hedging strategy, focused on downside protection and upside participation, has proven effective in capturing attractive margins. The strong demand for U.S. ethanol exports, driven by mandated blending and compliance requirements, provides margin support and balances the market. The company's risk management philosophy, spanning the full margin stack, ensures total margin protection and cost certainty. The current margins, co-product pricing, and carbon contribution support a stronger result in Q2 FY26. The company's disciplined commercial risk management and growing demand for products position Green Plains for continued margin and cash flow growth.
  • Green Plains' capital allocation strategy is focused on driving long-term value creation. The company's sustaining CapEx of $15 million to $25 million ensures the reliability and safety of its fleet. The company's efficiency and CI improvement projects, with short payback periods, aim to enhance the earnings power of the base plants for years to come. The company's plan to retire $60 million of the 2027 convertible notes at maturity demonstrates a commitment to strengthening the balance sheet. The company's growth projects, such as building grain storage at Wood River, Nebraska, and engineering low-energy distillation upgrades at York, Nebraska, reflect a focus on reliability, efficiency, and reducing carbon intensity scores. These projects are expected to structurally increase cash generation and improve the earnings power of the plants. The company's thoughtful capital allocation strategy positions Green Plains for sustained growth and improved financial performance.
▼ Bear case
  • Green Plains faces potential risks related to the seasonality of its business. The company's Q1 FY26 results, while strong, were achieved during a traditionally challenging period. The company's guidance for FY26 EBITDA contribution from 45Z production tax credits assumes high utilization rates, but the company will need to balance spring and fall maintenance activities, which could impact the 45Z cash generation. The company's ability to maintain high utilization rates and capture efficiency throughout the year will be critical to achieving its guidance. The company's reliance on high utilization rates and capture efficiency introduces operational risks that could impact its financial performance.
  • Green Plains' financial performance is subject to fluctuations in commodity prices and market conditions. The company's gross margins remain well above historical averages, but they are influenced by factors such as corn prices, ethanol demand, and energy commodity prices. The company's ability to manage these risks through hedging and risk management strategies is crucial for protecting margins and cash flow. The company's exposure to input costs, such as corn and natural gas, introduces volatility in its financial results. The company's reliance on favorable market dynamics for its products, including ethanol, corn oil, and protein, poses risks if market conditions deteriorate. The company's financial performance could be impacted by changes in commodity prices, demand dynamics, and energy markets.
  • Green Plains' carbon strategy, while a significant growth driver, introduces compliance and audit risks. The company's ability to monetize its 45Z tax credits is subject to compliance requirements and audit processes. The company's heavy lift in ensuring compliance with PWA and obtaining the highest level of tax credits poses execution risks. The company's focus on dotting all its I's and crossing all its T's to get the best value for those tax credits highlights the complexity and potential challenges in monetizing these credits. The company's financial performance could be impacted by delays or challenges in monetizing its 45Z tax credits.
  • Green Plains' growth projects and capital allocation strategy introduce execution risks. The company's plans to build grain storage at Wood River, Nebraska, and engineer low-energy distillation upgrades at York, Nebraska, are subject to successful execution and realization of expected benefits. The company's ability to replicate these projects across its fleet and achieve the expected improvements in reliability, efficiency, and carbon intensity scores will be critical to structurally increasing cash generation. The company's capital allocation strategy, while disciplined, introduces risks related to the successful execution of growth projects and the achievement of expected returns. The company's financial performance could be impacted by delays, cost overruns, or underperformance of its growth projects.
  • Green Plains faces risks related to the regulatory environment and policy changes. The company's financial performance is influenced by the Renewable Fuel Standard and other regulatory frameworks. Changes in regulatory requirements, such as the removal of the iLUC penalty for corn, can impact the company's carbon intensity scores and financial results. The company's ability to navigate the regulatory environment and adapt to policy changes will be crucial for its long-term success. The company's financial performance could be impacted by adverse regulatory changes or policy developments.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Chemicals
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 CE Celanese Corp 5.19 Bn-305.450.5512.55 Bn
2 MEOH Methanex Corp 4.49 Bn-83.591.222.71 Bn
3 OLN OLIN Corp 2.69 Bn-14.550.403.00 Bn
4 BAK Braskem Sa 1.98 Bn-8.330.159.61 Bn
5 REX REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp 1.49 Bn17.712.29-
6 GPRE Green Plains Inc. 1.18 Bn90.000.610.46 Bn
7 TROX Tronox Holdings plc 1.02 Bn-2.180.353.16 Bn
8 LXU Lsb Industries, Inc. 0.88 Bn18.771.370.45 Bn