Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas E&P CIK: 0001104485
Market Cap 1.65 Bn
P/B 7.66
P/E -196.31
P/S 3.32
ROIC (Qtr) 6.73
Div Yield % 2.39
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -26.14
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.35 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.05
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About

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.48B provides robust 0.63x coverage of total debt 2.35B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B provides strong 98.76x coverage of stock compensation 15.02M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.48B provides 24.82x coverage of SG&A expenses 59.74M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 5.49B provides 116.55x coverage of working capital 47.14M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 5.49B provide robust 16.40x coverage of other current liabilities 335.08M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B barely covers its investment activities of (1.61B), with a coverage ratio of -0.92, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (171.48M) with a -8.65 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 31.65M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of 42.59M, which is 0.74x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of (166.69M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 1.65B, with a -0.10 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating earnings of 413.12M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 815.46M, with a 0.51 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas E&P
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 COP Conocophillips 136.62 Bn 17.10 2.22 23.44 Bn
2 CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd 85.21 Bn 17.67 3.04 12.51 Bn
3 EOG Eog Resources Inc 66.33 Bn -60.48 8.67 8.13 Bn
4 FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. 49.64 Bn -2,818.83 314.47 16.24 Bn
5 OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ 37.18 Bn 15.36 2.56 22.88 Bn
6 WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd 34.64 Bn 11.73 2.51 -
7 TPL Texas Pacific Land Corp 29.74 Bn 126.16 78.66 0.02 Bn
8 DVN Devon Energy Corp/De 18.80 Bn 3.24 1.91 8.55 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.46 1.02
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 6.32 18.21
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.07 54.57
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 38.18 29.98
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 11.45 19.64
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -12.70 39.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.52 1.57
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.04 11.47
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 7.66 2.97
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -196.31 -25.98
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.06 26.80
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 96.70 31.86
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.77 0.78
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -103.15 1.05
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.34 -4.97
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -20.13 -533.65
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -7.88 52.06
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 9.26 -5.45
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -66.95 6.14
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -34.58 105.89
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -65.27 75.94
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -77.26 17.44
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -78.67 3.07
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -290.32 -43.36
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -8.37 149.32
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.43 0.33
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.05 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.06 1.32
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.10 2.37
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.05 0.34
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.34 -4.97
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.34 -4.97
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 51.60 16.19
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 17.35 -16.83
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 9.94 -24.06
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 74.20 58.92
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 7.60 -28.75