ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Eli Lilly

NYSE: LLY

$1,179.11 ▲ +9.94 (+0.85%)

At close: Jul 17, 2026 · 4:03 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap1,066.16 Bn

P/E42.18

P/S14.76

Div. Yield0.01

ROIC (Qtr)0.00

Total Debt (Qtr)43.37 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)55.54

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About

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products. The company aims to unite caring with discovery to create medicines that improve life for people worldwide. It operates in approximately 90 countries and maintains manufacturing sites in the United States, Europe and Asia. Eli Lilly and Company focuses its research and development efforts on cardiometabolic health, oncology, immunology and neuroscience to address unmet medical needs. The company’s portfolio includes insulin analogs, glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists, anticancer agents, immunomodulators and neuroscience therapeutics. Its products are distributed through a network that reaches hospitals, clinics and retail outlets in nearly all major markets.

Revenue is generated primarily from the sale of its pharmaceutical products to wholesalers, pharmacy benefit managers, insurers, plan sponsors, employers, managed care organizations, group purchasing organizations, government and long term care institutions, hospitals and retail pharmacies. In the United States, 3 wholesale distributors, McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc., and Cardinal Health, Inc., each accounted for a significant portion of consolidated revenue in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The company also earns revenue through collaborations and licensing agreements with other biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms that collaborate to develop and market certain products. The company’s collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim for Jardiance and with Incyte for Olumiant generate milestone payments, royalties and profit sharing. LillyDirect, a direct to patient platform, enables select medicines to be shipped from third party pharmacies to patients while offering adherence support tools and disease education resources. International sales are supported by local sales forces and third party distributors that adapt marketing and distribution to meet regional regulatory requirements.

The company operates through the following segments:

• Human pharmaceutical products: This segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets medicines across therapeutic areas including cardiometabolic health, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.

Eli Lilly and Company ranks among the largest global pharmaceutical companies, competing with firms such as Pfizer, Merck, Novo Nordisk, and Roche. Its competitive advantages stem from a deep pipeline of innovative medicines, strong intellectual property protection, extensive global manufacturing footprint, and strategic collaborations with other biotechnology firms. The company’s ability to bring differentiated products to market quickly helps it maintain relevance in highly therapeutic areas where effectiveness, safety, and payer coverage are critical. Lilly’s sustained investment in research and development, which employed approximately 12,000 scientists and technical staff at the end of 2025, fuels a steady flow of new drug candidates and line extensions. The firm’s scale enables it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers and payers while maintaining a diversified geographic revenue base that reduces reliance on any single market. The company’s pipeline includes candidates such as insulin efsitora alfa and orforglipron, which are under regulatory review for diabetes and obesity. Continuous investment in manufacturing capacity has expanded production sites in the United States, Europe and Asia to meet growing demand.

The company serves a diverse customer base that includes major wholesale distributors such as McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc., and Cardinal Health, Inc.; numerous pharmacy benefit managers; insurers; hospitals; physicians; and patients. Through its LillyDirect platform, Eli Lilly and Company also reaches individual consumers seeking home delivery of prescribed medicines. Long term care facilities, managed care organizations and government agencies constitute important purchasers for therapies addressing chronic conditions such as diabetes and cancer. Physician offices and academic medical centers serve as key prescribers who influence product adoption through clinical guidelines and formulary recommendations. Retail pharmacies and chain drug stores provide final dispensing points that connect Lilly’s medicines with everyday consumers. No single customer other than the 3 major wholesalers accounted for more than 10% of consolidated revenue in recent years.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Eli Lilly's Foundayo oral GLP-1 pill is gaining significant traction despite modest initial prescription numbers, with over 20,000 patients treated and more than 8,000 prescribers, a third of whom are new to oral GLP-1s, indicating strong organic demand and expanding the addressable market beyond injectable users; this early adoption, coupled with the pill's unique convenience of being taken without food or water restrictions, positions it to capture patients averse to injections and supports long-term market share growth in the obesity space, which the company estimates could reach $100 billion by the 2030s, with Foundayo's scalability enabling rapid global rollout as regulatory reviews progress in over 40 countries for obesity and type 2 diabetes indications.
The upcoming Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, effective July 1, 2026, will provide access to Foundayo and Zepbound for approximately 20 million eligible Medicare Part D patients at a $50 monthly copay, creating a substantial new patient pool that is currently underserved due to high out-of-pocket costs, and this initiative, combined with Lilly's Lilly Employer Connect platform targeting employer-sponsored coverage, addresses a critical barrier to adoption and could drive persistent, long-term utilization as evidenced by the strong persistency rates observed in Zepbound and Mounjaro users, thereby unlocking a multi-year growth catalyst that is not yet fully reflected in current guidance.
Lilly's retatrutide triple agonist is demonstrating best-in-class efficacy, with the 12 mg dose achieving 28.3% average weight loss over 80 weeks and 45.3% of participants reaching ≥30% weight loss—a threshold historically associated with bariatric surgery—while the 4 mg dose delivered 19.0% weight loss with a lower discontinuation rate than placebo, offering a favorable tolerability profile that could broaden appeal; these results, combined with improvements in cardiometabolic markers and obesity-related conditions like sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis, position retatrutide as a potential next pillar of Lilly's obesity portfolio that could launch as early as next year and significantly extend the company's lead over Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss market.
The company's aggressive business development strategy, fueled by GLP-1-driven financial strength, is expanding into high-potential areas such as vaccines and infectious diseases through acquisitions of Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics, and Vaccine Company for up to $3.8 billion, targeting unmet needs like a better-tolerated shingles vaccine (amezosvatein) with Phase 2 data showing only 7.3% moderate-to-severe side effects versus 33% for GSK's Shingrix, and a potential first-ever EBV vaccine; this diversification leverages Lilly's scale and cash flow to build future growth engines beyond cardiometabolic health, reducing reliance on any single franchise and creating optionality in neuroscience, immunology, and oncology through deals like Centessa for sleep disorders and Orna for autoimmune diseases.
Lilly's manufacturing expansion in Indiana, now exceeding $21 billion since 2020 with an additional $4.5 billion commitment, is securing domestic supply chain resilience for Foundayo, retatrutide, and genetic medicines, with the Lebanon Advanced Therapies facility enabling clinical and commercial production of advanced therapies and the Lebanon API site poised to become the largest in U.S. history by 2027; this vertical integration mitigates risks from global supply chain disruptions and tariff pressures, supports margin stability through localized production, and underpins the company's ability to scale new product launches efficiently, a structural advantage that competitors may struggle to replicate quickly.

Eli Lilly's Foundayo oral GLP-1 pill is gaining significant traction despite modest initial prescription numbers, with over 20,000 patients treated and more than 8,000 prescribers, a third of whom are new to oral GLP-1s, indicating strong organic demand and expanding the addressable market beyond injectable users; this early adoption, coupled with the pill's unique convenience of being taken without food or water restrictions, positions it to capture patients averse to injections and supports long-term market share growth in the obesity space, which the company estimates could reach $100 billion by the 2030s, with Foundayo's scalability enabling rapid global rollout as regulatory reviews progress in over 40 countries for obesity and type 2 diabetes indications.
The upcoming Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, effective July 1, 2026, will provide access to Foundayo and Zepbound for approximately 20 million eligible Medicare Part D patients at a $50 monthly copay, creating a substantial new patient pool that is currently underserved due to high out-of-pocket costs, and this initiative, combined with Lilly's Lilly Employer Connect platform targeting employer-sponsored coverage, addresses a critical barrier to adoption and could drive persistent, long-term utilization as evidenced by the strong persistency rates observed in Zepbound and Mounjaro users, thereby unlocking a multi-year growth catalyst that is not yet fully reflected in current guidance.
Lilly's retatrutide triple agonist is demonstrating best-in-class efficacy, with the 12 mg dose achieving 28.3% average weight loss over 80 weeks and 45.3% of participants reaching ≥30% weight loss—a threshold historically associated with bariatric surgery—while the 4 mg dose delivered 19.0% weight loss with a lower discontinuation rate than placebo, offering a favorable tolerability profile that could broaden appeal; these results, combined with improvements in cardiometabolic markers and obesity-related conditions like sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis, position retatrutide as a potential next pillar of Lilly's obesity portfolio that could launch as early as next year and significantly extend the company's lead over Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss market.
The company's aggressive business development strategy, fueled by GLP-1-driven financial strength, is expanding into high-potential areas such as vaccines and infectious diseases through acquisitions of Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics, and Vaccine Company for up to $3.8 billion, targeting unmet needs like a better-tolerated shingles vaccine (amezosvatein) with Phase 2 data showing only 7.3% moderate-to-severe side effects versus 33% for GSK's Shingrix, and a potential first-ever EBV vaccine; this diversification leverages Lilly's scale and cash flow to build future growth engines beyond cardiometabolic health, reducing reliance on any single franchise and creating optionality in neuroscience, immunology, and oncology through deals like Centessa for sleep disorders and Orna for autoimmune diseases.
Lilly's manufacturing expansion in Indiana, now exceeding $21 billion since 2020 with an additional $4.5 billion commitment, is securing domestic supply chain resilience for Foundayo, retatrutide, and genetic medicines, with the Lebanon Advanced Therapies facility enabling clinical and commercial production of advanced therapies and the Lebanon API site poised to become the largest in U.S. history by 2027; this vertical integration mitigates risks from global supply chain disruptions and tariff pressures, supports margin stability through localized production, and underpins the company's ability to scale new product launches efficiently, a structural advantage that competitors may struggle to replicate quickly.

▼ Bear case

Eli Lilly's Foundayo launch is facing slower-than-expected prescription uptake, with only 5,612 prescriptions in the third week post-launch and 7,335 in the fourth week, significantly below the 22,000 weekly prescriptions needed to meet consensus sales expectations of $160 million for Q2, and while the company cites over 20,000 patients treated and 8,000 prescribers, a third of whom are new to oral GLP-1s, the modest weekly script trends suggest potential challenges in converting awareness to sustained demand, particularly as patients and prescribers may remain hesitant due to the drug's novelty and lack of established heart-benefit data compared to Novo's Wegovy pill, which benefits from brand recognition and cardiovascular outcomes data.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, while expanding access to obesity medicines for seniors, includes strict eligibility criteria that exclude patients already receiving GLP-1s for type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, or fatty liver disease through their Part D plans, and requires prior authorization, which could limit real-world uptake; furthermore, employer coverage of GLP-1s is under pressure, with surveys indicating 5% of large employers plan to drop coverage in 2027 and 10% unlikely to continue due to cost concerns, as the net cost to employers remains high at $569–$664 per employee monthly even after discounts, and the long-term value proposition is questioned when patients discontinue therapy after weight loss goals are met, undermining the sustainability of employer-sponsored programs.
Retatrutide's promising efficacy is accompanied by notable side effects at higher doses, including nausea in 42.4%, diarrhea in 32.0%, and vomiting in 25.3% of patients on the 12 mg dose, with discontinuation rates due to adverse events reaching 11.3%—more than double the placebo rate—and while the 4 mg dose shows improved tolerability, its 19.0% weight loss is only comparable to Zepbound's high-dose results, suggesting retatrutide may not offer a clear differentiation in efficacy over existing therapies at tolerable doses, and the company's own data indicate that weight loss plateaus at lower doses, limiting its potential to capture patients seeking maximal weight reduction without significant side effect burden.
Lilly's aggressive acquisition spree, with over $30 billion spent in deals this year and plans for up to $25 billion in additional investments, raises concerns about capital allocation discipline and integration risk, particularly as the company ventures into unfamiliar territories like vaccines and infectious diseases where it has no marketed products and faces regulatory uncertainty under the current administration; the deals for Curevo, LimmaTech, and Vaccine Company are based on early-stage assets with no near-term revenue expectations, and while framed as preventive strategies, the long payoff period and execution risk in complex biological areas like EBV or shingles vaccines could divert focus and resources from core franchises without guaranteed returns, especially if clinical trials fail or regulatory approvals are delayed.
The obesity and diabetes drug market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with Deloitte reporting that obesity treatments now account for 38% of projected commercial inflows from the late-stage pipeline of the top 20 pharma companies, creating a "bubble" where profitability is driven by a small number of blockbuster assets; this overreliance increases vulnerability to therapeutic-area-specific shocks such as unexpected safety findings, regulatory setbacks, or competitive entrants, and if GLP-1/GIP assets were excluded, the industry's R&D returns would fall to just 2.9%, highlighting that Lilly's current growth trajectory is heavily dependent on the sustained success of its incretin portfolio, which could face headwinds from biosimilar competition, pricing pressure, or shifting reimbursement landscapes as seen in the Medicaid access losses in certain states that negatively impacted Zepbound prescription growth in the high single digits during Q1.

Eli Lilly's Foundayo launch is facing slower-than-expected prescription uptake, with only 5,612 prescriptions in the third week post-launch and 7,335 in the fourth week, significantly below the 22,000 weekly prescriptions needed to meet consensus sales expectations of $160 million for Q2, and while the company cites over 20,000 patients treated and 8,000 prescribers, a third of whom are new to oral GLP-1s, the modest weekly script trends suggest potential challenges in converting awareness to sustained demand, particularly as patients and prescribers may remain hesitant due to the drug's novelty and lack of established heart-benefit data compared to Novo's Wegovy pill, which benefits from brand recognition and cardiovascular outcomes data.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, while expanding access to obesity medicines for seniors, includes strict eligibility criteria that exclude patients already receiving GLP-1s for type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, or fatty liver disease through their Part D plans, and requires prior authorization, which could limit real-world uptake; furthermore, employer coverage of GLP-1s is under pressure, with surveys indicating 5% of large employers plan to drop coverage in 2027 and 10% unlikely to continue due to cost concerns, as the net cost to employers remains high at $569–$664 per employee monthly even after discounts, and the long-term value proposition is questioned when patients discontinue therapy after weight loss goals are met, undermining the sustainability of employer-sponsored programs.
Retatrutide's promising efficacy is accompanied by notable side effects at higher doses, including nausea in 42.4%, diarrhea in 32.0%, and vomiting in 25.3% of patients on the 12 mg dose, with discontinuation rates due to adverse events reaching 11.3%—more than double the placebo rate—and while the 4 mg dose shows improved tolerability, its 19.0% weight loss is only comparable to Zepbound's high-dose results, suggesting retatrutide may not offer a clear differentiation in efficacy over existing therapies at tolerable doses, and the company's own data indicate that weight loss plateaus at lower doses, limiting its potential to capture patients seeking maximal weight reduction without significant side effect burden.
Lilly's aggressive acquisition spree, with over $30 billion spent in deals this year and plans for up to $25 billion in additional investments, raises concerns about capital allocation discipline and integration risk, particularly as the company ventures into unfamiliar territories like vaccines and infectious diseases where it has no marketed products and faces regulatory uncertainty under the current administration; the deals for Curevo, LimmaTech, and Vaccine Company are based on early-stage assets with no near-term revenue expectations, and while framed as preventive strategies, the long payoff period and execution risk in complex biological areas like EBV or shingles vaccines could divert focus and resources from core franchises without guaranteed returns, especially if clinical trials fail or regulatory approvals are delayed.
The obesity and diabetes drug market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with Deloitte reporting that obesity treatments now account for 38% of projected commercial inflows from the late-stage pipeline of the top 20 pharma companies, creating a "bubble" where profitability is driven by a small number of blockbuster assets; this overreliance increases vulnerability to therapeutic-area-specific shocks such as unexpected safety findings, regulatory setbacks, or competitive entrants, and if GLP-1/GIP assets were excluded, the industry's R&D returns would fall to just 2.9%, highlighting that Lilly's current growth trajectory is heavily dependent on the sustained success of its incretin portfolio, which could face headwinds from biosimilar competition, pricing pressure, or shifting reimbursement landscapes as seen in the Medicaid access losses in certain states that negatively impacted Zepbound prescription growth in the high single digits during Q1.

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Drug Manufacturers - General

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	LLY	ELI LILLY & Co	1,066.16 Bn	42.18	14.76	43.37 Bn
2	JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	611.69 Bn	29.07	6.35	54.99 Bn
3	ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	444.34 Bn	122.04	7.07	64.53 Bn
4	AZN	Astrazeneca Plc	284.94 Bn	23.78	2,793.52	-24.45 Bn
5	MRK	Merck & Co., Inc.	224.23 Bn	25.00	3.41	49.12 Bn
6	AMGN	Amgen Inc	195.12 Bn	25.02	5.24	57.32 Bn
7	GILD	Gilead Sciences, Inc.	156.45 Bn	16.36	5.26	22.17 Bn
8	PFE	Pfizer Inc	136.01 Bn	11,334.57	5.56	64.46 Bn

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