Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz KSPI

NASDAQ KSPI
$107.67 -0.14 (-0.13%)
As of: Sep 4, 2026 · 3:57 PM EDT
Key Stats
Market Cap20.53 Bn
P/E0.01
P/S0.00
Div. Yield0.00
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About

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz operates as a leading provider of mobile-based Super App services in Kazakhstan, integrating marketplace, payments, and fintech solutions within a unified platform for consumers and merchants. The company's core business revolves around its two-sided Super App model, comprising the Kaspi.kz Super App for consumers and the Kaspi Pay Super App for merchants, which together facilitate a wide range of daily transactions and services. By combining…

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Sectors: Financial Services Technology Sector rationale The company's core revenue is driven by its Fintech Platform (interest on loans, BNPL, and deposit spreads) and Payments Platform (merchant acquiring fees), which are classic financial services activities. A secondary sector of Technology is justified because the company operates a substantial Marketplace Platform (e-commerce, classifieds, and digital advertising) and builds its own proprietary Super App ecosystem and biometric identity technology. Industries: +1 more Money Center Banks Money Center Banks Primary Kaspi.kz operates as a large-scale bank holding a charter that integrates retail and commercial banking with capital markets and payments. It generates significant revenue from deposit account spreads and interest on consumer and merchant loans, while simultaneously operating a massive payments and marketplace ecosystem. Digital Marketplaces Digital Marketplaces Secondary The company operates a Marketplace Platform that connects third-party merchants with consumers for e-Commerce, e-Grocery, and e-Cars, earning commissions on these third-party sales. Payment Processing Payment Processing Secondary The Payments Platform provides merchant acquiring services, Kaspi QR for in-store payments, and B2B payment settlement, earning revenue from merchant acquiring fees. Classified using BQ-MICS CIK: 0001985487
Bull & bear

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Kaspi's e-commerce segment is exhibiting robust growth, with GMV increasing by 41% year-over-year, driven by a 43% rise in transactions and a 44% year-over-year growth in the frequency of quarterly purchases. This growth is not just limited to Kazakhstan but also extends to Turkey, where the company is making significant strides. The increasing engagement of the consumer base is a positive indicator, as it opens up more opportunities for monetization through advertising, delivery, and fintech services. The company's focus on the front end of the consumer and merchant relationship positions it well to capitalize on the growing trend of e-commerce and the future integration of AI agents in the purchasing process.
  • The company's strategic investments in Hepsiburada are beginning to yield results, with the marketplace GMV growing by 19% year-over-year on a constant currency pro forma basis. The inclusion of Hepsiburada has contributed to the overall growth of the marketplace segment, with revenue up 49% and EBITDA up 12%. The transition from offline to online retail is gathering momentum, and Kaspi is well-positioned to benefit from this shift. The company's ability to drive order growth and increase the take rate is a testament to its strong market position and effective execution of its strategy.
  • Kaspi's fintech segment is showing signs of strength, with an average net loan portfolio growth of 23% and a fintech yield of 6% year-over-year. The company is prioritizing longer-duration loans that generate more revenue, which is a positive development for its bottom line. The risk metrics, such as first and second payment default rates and delinquency rates, are stable and at low levels, indicating a healthy portfolio. The cost of risk is broadly flat year-over-year, and the NPL ratio is moving up due to the portfolio shifting towards lower-risk merchant finance and secured products.
  • The company's recent $600 million capital raise at a 5.9% rate provides it with the flexibility to fund growth initiatives across both Kazakhstan and Turkey. This financial maneuvering strengthens Kaspi's position to invest in its strategic priorities, such as enhancing the consumer experience in Turkey and driving engagement on the platform. The involvement of Tencent as a shareholder brings strategic synergies and a wealth of knowledge in the super app business model, which could further enhance Kaspi's innovative capabilities and market positioning.
▼ Bear case
  • Kaspi's payments segment is experiencing take rate compression, driven by a change in product mix in favor of Kaspi QR and Kaspi B2B payments. This trend is consistent with long-run trends and is likely to continue, impacting the revenue growth of the payments segment. The EBITDA metric for payments excludes interest revenue, which is around 1/4 of payments revenue and grew about 26% year-over-year. While the payments business remains highly profitable and cash generative, the slower revenue growth could pose challenges to its overall financial performance.
  • The company's guidance for the full year includes a GMV growth of around 20% and TPV growth of 15%, with TFE growth trending below the 5% guidance. The slower growth in TFE is a result of the company's deliberate choice to prioritize longer-duration loans that generate more revenue. While this strategy is beneficial for the bottom line, it could lead to a divergence between loan portfolio growth and TFE growth, which may raise concerns among investors about the sustainability of this approach.
  • Kaspi's net income is flat year-over-year, driven by higher interest expense due to increased funding costs in Kazakhstan and Turkey, as well as the inclusion of Hepsiburada, which has COGS for 3 months versus 2 months previously. The company's investments in Hepsiburada and other growth initiatives are weighing on profitability, and while the company aims to keep EBITDA around breakeven this year, the slower growth in subsequent quarters could pose challenges to achieving this goal.
  • The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on the electronic supply chain could pose risks to Kaspi's marketplace growth in Kazakhstan. While the current macro situation is more positive than negative for Kazakhstan, any escalation in geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact the company's operations. Additionally, the company's reliance on the Kazakhstan market for a significant portion of its revenue exposes it to country-specific risks, such as regulatory changes and economic fluctuations.
  • The company's strategic focus on increasing consumer engagement and frequency of purchases in Turkey, while admirable, comes with significant investment requirements. The shift in the portfolio towards lower-risk merchant finance and secured products, while beneficial for risk management, could also lead to a slower pace of loan origination and revenue growth. The company's ability to execute on its strategic priorities and deliver on its guidance will be crucial in determining its long-term success.

Segment consolidation items [axis] Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer group

Peer Comparison

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