Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE: HCC)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Coking Coal CIK: 0001691303
Market Cap 4.48 Bn
P/B 2.09
P/E 78.63
P/S 3.42
ROIC (Qtr) 1.23
Div Yield % 0.38
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 29.09
Total Debt (Qtr) 270.94 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.13
Add ratio to table...

About

Warrior Met Coal, Inc., commonly referred to as Warrior Met Coal, is a significant player in the global steel industry, operating as a supplier of steelmaking coal. The company is based in Brookwood, Alabama, and its stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol HCC. Warrior Met Coal is a leading producer of hard coking coal (HCC), a critical component in the production of steel. The company's primary products are HCC, which are used by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. Warrior Met Coal's HCC is known for...

Read more

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 229.25M provides robust 0.85x coverage of total debt 270.94M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 307.85M provide 7.99x coverage of short-term debt 38.51M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 229.25M provides strong 11.49x coverage of stock compensation 19.95M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.78B provides 10.27x coverage of total debt 270.94M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 229.25M provides exceptional 23.53x coverage of interest expenses 9.74M, showing strong debt service capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 229.25M barely covers its investment activities of (405.15M), with a coverage ratio of -0.57, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 229.25M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (17.82M) with a -12.86 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of (182.28M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 411.53M, with a -0.44 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating cash flow of 229.25M provides minimal -89.76x coverage of tax expenses of (2.55M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of 64.19M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 188.56M, with a 0.34 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Coking Coal
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. 4.48 Bn 78.63 3.42 270.94 Mn
2 AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. 2.37 Bn -50.82 1.06 4.97 Mn
3 METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. 0.79 Bn -23.97 1.36 136.66 Mn
4 SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. 0.64 Bn -4.27 0.41 695.70 Mn
5 AREC American Resources Corp 0.24 Bn -6.46 2,523.69 243.35 Mn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.57 1.30
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 19.08 6.27
EV to Debt EV to Debt 16.14 82.62
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 68.15 -5.13
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 18.67 28.89
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -24.00 3.80
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.98 1.41
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.34 1,003.45
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.09 0.54
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 78.63 -1.38
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.20 -22.95
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 29.60 8.30
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.32 0.23
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -9.23 3.54
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 6.59 -2.77
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 15.72 -16.23
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -38.32 109.36
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -60.98 -16.71
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -73.58 -59.90
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -42.70 -32.77
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -77.71 -66.17
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -80.81 -76.68
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -77.45 -73.57
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -50.86 -60.16
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -36.51 -8.29
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.47 0.61
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.03 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.20 1.00
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 3.19 2.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.13 -0.46
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 6.59 -2.77
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 6.59 -2.77
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 19.30 -4,844.46
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 4.90 -5,353.16
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 4.16 -7,817.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 22.90 291.70
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 4.40 -7,817.48