Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Coking Coal CIK: 0001704715
Market Cap 2.37 Bn
P/B 1.49
P/E -50.82
P/S 1.06
ROIC (Qtr) -1.17
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -21.60
Total Debt (Qtr) 4.97 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.00
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About

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., or AMR, is a mining company based in Tennessee that operates in the metallurgical coal industry. The company's primary business activities involve the production and sale of metallurgical coal, also known as met coal, and thermal coal. These products are used in various applications, including steel production, industrial processes, and power generation. AMR operates primarily in the Central Appalachian (CAPP) coal basin, which spans across Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The company owns and operates...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 182.22M provides robust 36.64x coverage of total debt 4.97M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 408.52M provide 192.79x coverage of short-term debt 2.12M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 182.22M provides strong 13.59x coverage of stock compensation 13.41M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Operating cash flow of 182.22M provides exceptional 63.45x coverage of interest expenses 2.87M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 1.89B provides 379.63x coverage of total debt 4.97M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 182.22M barely covers its investment activities of (217.95M), with a coverage ratio of -0.84, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 182.22M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (415000) with a -439.08 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 408.52M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (38.04M), which is -10.74x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating cash flow of 182.22M provides minimal -22.22x coverage of tax expenses of (8.20M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of (51.87M) show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 173.47M, with a -0.30 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Coking Coal
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. 4.48 Bn 78.63 3.42 270.94 Mn
2 AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. 2.37 Bn -50.82 1.06 4.97 Mn
3 METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. 0.79 Bn -23.97 1.36 136.66 Mn
4 SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. 0.64 Bn -4.27 0.41 695.70 Mn
5 AREC American Resources Corp 0.24 Bn -6.46 2,523.69 243.35 Mn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.82 1.30
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 10.55 6.27
EV to Debt EV to Debt 386.47 82.62
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -37.05 -5.13
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 13.40 28.89
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 46.08 3.80
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.81 1.41
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.86 1,003.45
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.49 0.54
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -50.82 -1.38
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -112.16 -22.95
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 8.30
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.23
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 3.54
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -18.06 -2.77
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 35.14 -16.23
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -15.69 109.36
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -16.71
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -111.92 -59.90
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -76.11 -32.77
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -112.52 -66.17
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -113.37 -76.68
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -112.80 -73.57
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -91.76 -60.16
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -66.76 -8.29
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.95 0.61
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.63 1.00
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 3.95 2.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.00 -0.46
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -18.06 -2.77
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -18.06 -2.77
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 5.50 -4,844.46
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -2.33 -5,353.16
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -2.46 -7,817.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 10.80 291.70
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -2.10 -7,817.48