Blue Bird Corp (NASDAQ: BLBD)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery CIK: 0001589526
Market Cap 1.90 Bn
P/B 7.00
P/E 14.63
P/S 1.27
ROIC (Qtr) 37.59
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 6.12
Total Debt (Qtr) 89.15 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.33
Add ratio to table...

About

Blue Bird Corporation, often recognized by its stock symbol "BLBD," is a prominent player in the design and manufacturing of school buses, holding a significant position in the market since its establishment in 1927. The company's operations span across two primary segments: the Bus segment and the Parts segment. Blue Bird's core business activities revolve around the design, engineering, manufacture, and sale of school buses and extended warranties. They operate through an extensive network of over 70 dealers in the U.S. and Canada, and directly...

Read more

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 186.38M provides robust 2.09x coverage of total debt 89.15M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 241.74M provide 48.35x coverage of short-term debt 5M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 186.38M provides strong 12.74x coverage of stock compensation 14.63M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 582.30M provides 6.53x coverage of total debt 89.15M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 186.38M provides exceptional 27.20x coverage of interest expenses 6.85M, showing strong debt service capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 186.38M barely covers its investment activities of (24.43M), with a coverage ratio of -7.63, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Cash reserves of 241.74M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (690000), which is -350.35x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating cash flow of 186.38M barely covers operating expenses of (279000) with a -668.04 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.
  • Free cash flow of 162.64M represents just -29.88x of debt issuance (5.44M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 103.99M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (28.16M), which is -3.69x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 CAT Caterpillar Inc 483.60 Bn 124.96 8.76 43.33 Bn
2 DE Deere & Co 188.47 Bn 68.51 5.30 63.94 Bn
3 PCAR Paccar Inc 68.19 Bn 57.51 3.81 15.85 Bn
4 CNH CNH Industrial N.V. 16.63 Bn 27.85 0.93 27.17 Bn
5 AGCO Agco Corp /De 10.86 Bn 33.29 1.16 2.56 Bn
6 OSK Oshkosh Corp 10.81 Bn 16.71 1.04 1.10 Bn
7 TEX Terex Corp 4.57 Bn 20.69 0.84 2.58 Bn
8 ALG Alamo Group Inc 2.46 Bn 38.76 2.10 0.21 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.74 1.36
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 9.44 2.52
EV to Debt EV to Debt 19.74 36.19
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 9.72 19.84
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 9.37 11.98
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 10.82 10.22
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.93 2.67
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.17 2.22
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 7.00 2.56
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 14.63 19.56
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 116,909.42
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 51.44
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 1.01
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 11.55
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 26.41 6.02
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -40.05 -4.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 77.59 27.84
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -2.90
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 17.39 22.54
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 25.85 2.73
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 20.27 36.64
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 22.96 2,839.65
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 22.39 154.78
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 35.14 -12.49
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 24.32 -11.09
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 2.33 1.00
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.03 0.46
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.81 2.51
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.33 0.43
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 26.41 6.02
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 26.41 6.02
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 13.10 -7.57
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 12.07 -11.88
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 11.61 -14.87
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 21.00 19.78
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 8.70 -16.22