Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE: AESI)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services CIK: 0001984060
Market Cap 1.79 Bn
P/B 1.46
P/E -131.11
P/S 1.60
ROIC (Qtr) 1.35
Div Yield % 8.39
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -14.72
Total Debt (Qtr) 583.61 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.48
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About

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) is a prominent player in the oil and natural gas industry, specifically as a low-cost producer of high-quality proppant. With two operational facilities in Kermit and Monahans, Texas, and a third under construction, AESI is strategically positioned in the Permian Basin. AESI's primary business activities revolve around the production and processing of proppant, with a combined annual capacity of 16.5 million tons. The company's facilities are situated near major highways, facilitating efficient transportation...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 1.89B provides 3.23x coverage of total debt 583.61M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 1.89B provide exceptional 629.39x coverage of deferred revenue 3M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 184.49M provides solid 0.84x coverage of current liabilities 220.57M, showing strong operational health.
  • Operating cash flow of 184.49M provides strong 61.52x coverage of deferred revenue 3M, indicating service delivery capability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 1.89B provides 24.63x coverage of working capital 76.64M, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 184.49M barely covers its investment activities of (408.16M), with a coverage ratio of -0.45, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 184.49M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (118.73M) with a -1.55 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 41.35M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (215.36M), which is -0.19x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • High receivables of 184.62M relative to inventory of 56.81M (3.25 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (18.40M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 202.89M, with a -0.09 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 SLB Slb Limited/Nv 59.56 Bn 20.77 2.67 11.64 Bn
2 BKR Baker Hughes Co 59.13 Bn 22.85 2.13 6.09 Bn
3 FTI TechnipFMC plc 28.99 Bn 127.65 1.96 1.34 Bn
4 HAL Halliburton Co 28.83 Bn 22.47 1.30 8.13 Bn
5 WFRD Weatherford International plc 7.39 Bn 17.15 1.50 1.64 Bn
6 NOV NOV Inc. 7.09 Bn 48.90 0.81 2.34 Bn
7 VAL Valaris Ltd 6.32 Bn 15.83 2.61 1.09 Bn
8 KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 4.56 Bn 91.00 3.58 2.66 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.01 1.17
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.27 -3.30
EV to Debt EV to Debt 3.88 10.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 63.87 4.49
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 10.84 6.54
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -123.05 31.31
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.26 1.36
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.03 2.02
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.46 1.73
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -131.11 20.20
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -0.12 0.42
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) -1,100.00 5.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.99 0.26
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -664.43 6.68
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.66 -10.19
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 51.38 -37.90
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -47.42 1,334.16
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 15.12 4.06
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -74.74 -12.71
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -6.77 19.66
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -73.26 -26.68
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -117.79 39.97
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -112.68 27.30
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 87.42 -867.31
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -26.42 5.49
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.50 0.74
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.31 0.10
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.19 0.62
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.35 2.25
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.48 0.88
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.66 -10.19
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.66 -10.19
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 18.80 16.47
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 3.17 -0.62
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -1.65 4.39
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 16.10 30.41
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -1.20 2.67