Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Autodesk

NASDAQ: ADSK

$209.79 ▲ +4.53 (+2.21%)

At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap43.31 Bn

P/E29.64

P/S5.77

Div. Yield0.00

Total Debt (Qtr)2.48 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)18.43

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About

Autodesk, Inc. is a global leader in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions. The company serves customers in architecture, engineering, construction, operations, product design, manufacturing, media, and entertainment. Its professional software products enable users to visualize, simulate, and analyze real-world performance early in the design process to foster innovation, optimize designs, streamline workflows, and improve sustainability.

Autodesk generates revenue primarily through subscription-based offerings, including term-based product subscriptions, cloud service offerings, and enterprise business agreements. These hybrid offerings combine desktop software with cloud functionality to provide device-independent, collaborative design workflows. Revenue is derived from a global customer base across multiple industries, with sales conducted through direct and indirect channels, including resellers, distributors, and Solution Providers.

The company operates through the following segments: Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AECO), Manufacturing (MFG), and Media and Entertainment (M&E).

• AECO: This segment provides software solutions for building, infrastructure, and industrial projects. Key products include the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Collection, which features AutoCAD, AutoCAD Civil 3D, and Revit. Additional offerings such as Autodesk Build, BIM Collaborate Pro, BuildingConnected, and Tandem support project management, collaboration, and digital twin capabilities throughout the asset lifecycle.

• MFG: This segment delivers digital design, engineering, manufacturing, and production solutions for manufacturers. Core products include Fusion, Inventor, and the Product Design & Manufacturing Collection, which integrates AutoCAD, Fusion, Vault, and Inventor. Vault provides data management capabilities that accelerate design processes and improve engineering cycle time by enabling secure collaboration and revision control.

• M&E: This segment offers tools for digital sculpting, modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing. Flagship products include Maya, 3ds Max, and the Media & Entertainment Collection, which provides end-to-end creative tools for entertainment creation. Flow Production Tracking supports cloud-based production management for creative teams working on film, games, and visual effects projects.

Autodesk holds a leading position in the competitive markets for design and creation software, facing rivals such as Adobe Systems Incorporated, Bentley Systems, Dassault Systèmes, PTC Inc., Siemens PLM, and Trimble Navigation Limited. The company maintains its competitive edge through sustained investment in research and development, a strong portfolio of industry-specific solutions, and a transition to cloud-based and subscription-driven models that enhance collaboration and accessibility.

Autodesk serves a diverse global customer base that includes architects, engineers, contractors, manufacturers, product designers, game developers, film artists, and construction professionals. Specific customer types span automotive, transportation, industrial machinery, consumer products, building products, and media and entertainment industries, with solutions tailored to enterprises, small businesses, and individual creators across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC regions.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Autodesk's Q1 fiscal 2027 results demonstrated stronger-than-expected momentum with revenue growth of 18% year-over-year and non-GAAP operating margin expansion to 39%, driven by effective execution of its sales reorganization and sustained demand across AECO and Manufacturing segments, which grew 20% and 19% respectively in constant currency, revealing that the company's strategic focus on high-growth verticals is yielding tangible results beyond initial guidance assumptions and positioning it for continued outperformance as the sales model transition normalizes and channel partner incentives align with new business acquisition.
The MaintenX acquisition, valued at approximately $3.6 billion for a business with over $135 million ARR and exceeding 50% growth, represents a strategic cornerstone that will significantly expand Autodesk's addressable market by enabling convergence of design, make, and operate workflows through access to real-time asset performance data, which management explicitly stated will unlock predictive maintenance capabilities and extend the value of digital twins from static to autonomous systems, creating a defensible AI moat that competitors lacking integrated physical-world context cannot replicate.
Autodesk's AI strategy, combining frontier model generation with deterministic engineering validation through parametric and physics-based engines, is uniquely positioned to solve the "last mile" problem of industrial AI by ensuring AI-generated outputs are manufacturable and constructible in the real world, a capability emphasized by the CEO as scarce and critical for customer trust, and reinforced by the MaintenX deal which provides the essential field execution data layer to train and validate these models across asset lifecycles, turning AI from a novelty into a mission-critical operational tool.
The company's capital allocation framework remains disciplined, with plans to absorb MaintenX dilution within fiscal 2027-2029 margin goals while continuing to prioritize organic R&D investment in cloud and AI, and the expectation that MaintenX will follow the same value-creation playbook as the construction expansion—which grew from zero to $600 million LTM revenue and 20%+ growth over five years—suggests the operations segment could become an even larger growth engine due to its broader TAM and deeper integration with Autodesk's existing AI and data infrastructure.
Recent under-the-radar initiatives like the AWS Marketplace collaboration for Fusion products and the reduced Flex minimum for small businesses are quietly expanding Autodesk's reach into underserved segments, lowering friction for adoption and creating new self-serve channels that could drive incremental seat growth and usage-based revenue over time, particularly as the company leverages AWS's AI infrastructure to enhance its cloud platform without significant additional R&D spend, demonstrating a capital-efficient path to market expansion that is not yet fully reflected in current guidance.

Autodesk's Q1 fiscal 2027 results demonstrated stronger-than-expected momentum with revenue growth of 18% year-over-year and non-GAAP operating margin expansion to 39%, driven by effective execution of its sales reorganization and sustained demand across AECO and Manufacturing segments, which grew 20% and 19% respectively in constant currency, revealing that the company's strategic focus on high-growth verticals is yielding tangible results beyond initial guidance assumptions and positioning it for continued outperformance as the sales model transition normalizes and channel partner incentives align with new business acquisition.
The MaintenX acquisition, valued at approximately $3.6 billion for a business with over $135 million ARR and exceeding 50% growth, represents a strategic cornerstone that will significantly expand Autodesk's addressable market by enabling convergence of design, make, and operate workflows through access to real-time asset performance data, which management explicitly stated will unlock predictive maintenance capabilities and extend the value of digital twins from static to autonomous systems, creating a defensible AI moat that competitors lacking integrated physical-world context cannot replicate.
Autodesk's AI strategy, combining frontier model generation with deterministic engineering validation through parametric and physics-based engines, is uniquely positioned to solve the "last mile" problem of industrial AI by ensuring AI-generated outputs are manufacturable and constructible in the real world, a capability emphasized by the CEO as scarce and critical for customer trust, and reinforced by the MaintenX deal which provides the essential field execution data layer to train and validate these models across asset lifecycles, turning AI from a novelty into a mission-critical operational tool.
The company's capital allocation framework remains disciplined, with plans to absorb MaintenX dilution within fiscal 2027-2029 margin goals while continuing to prioritize organic R&D investment in cloud and AI, and the expectation that MaintenX will follow the same value-creation playbook as the construction expansion—which grew from zero to $600 million LTM revenue and 20%+ growth over five years—suggests the operations segment could become an even larger growth engine due to its broader TAM and deeper integration with Autodesk's existing AI and data infrastructure.
Recent under-the-radar initiatives like the AWS Marketplace collaboration for Fusion products and the reduced Flex minimum for small businesses are quietly expanding Autodesk's reach into underserved segments, lowering friction for adoption and creating new self-serve channels that could drive incremental seat growth and usage-based revenue over time, particularly as the company leverages AWS's AI infrastructure to enhance its cloud platform without significant additional R&D spend, demonstrating a capital-efficient path to market expansion that is not yet fully reflected in current guidance.

▼ Bear case

Despite strong headline growth, Autodesk's Q1 results reveal concerning underlying trends, including a decline in unbilled deferred revenue growth to just 4% year-over-year, signaling weakening demand for multi-year contracts as the company reduces discounting to improve price realization, a trade-off that may boost near-term revenue but risks creating a future renewal cliff if customers resist higher annual pricing or shift to competing platforms with more flexible terms, especially given the sales reorganization's temporary disruption to new business productivity that management acknowledges will persist through the year.
The MaintenX acquisition carries significant execution risk, as Autodesk is paying approximately 18x next year's revenue for a business in a competitive maintenance software market where legacy players and niche solutions have struggled to achieve profitability at scale, and while management cites the construction playbook as a blueprint, the operations segment lacks the same clear workflow fragmentation and standardization drivers that made construction a successful adjacency, raising doubts about whether MaintenX can replicate the same go-to-market success without substantial customization and integration effort.
Management's confidence in absorbing MaintenX within existing margin goals overlooks the business's current lower margin profile and the substantial integration costs—including systems harmonization, sales team retraining, and potential customer confusion from overlapping offerings—that historically accompany large tuck-in acquisitions, and the commitment to maintain ~39% non-GAAP operating margin through fiscal 2029 assumes uninterrupted operating leverage from the core business, which may not materialize if sales reorganization headwinds persist or if MaintenX requires greater-than-expected investment to reach scale.
Autodesk's AI strategy, while technologically sound, faces adoption barriers as customers increasingly develop homegrown tools to supplement or replace commercial offerings, a trend acknowledged by the CEO as an ecosystem problem requiring a strong platform to orchestrate, yet the company's reliance on selling AI as a premium feature within its subscription model may limit uptake among cost-sensitive SMBs and mid-market firms, particularly if open-source or AWS-native alternatives offer comparable functionality at lower cost, undermining the monetization potential of its 3D foundation models and agentic workflows.
The company's guidance assumes a broadly stable macroenvironment, but persistent geopolitical tensions, foreign exchange headwinds, and regional economic volatility—especially in EMEA where revenue growth lagged the Americas due to sales reorganization timing and local labor law complexities—pose ongoing risks to international billings, and the dependency on a small number of high-revenue solutions like AutoCAD and AECO products means any slowdown in key verticals such as construction or manufacturing could disproportionately impact overall performance, a vulnerability not fully mitigated by the early-stage MaintenX investment which remains immaterial to total revenue at close.

Despite strong headline growth, Autodesk's Q1 results reveal concerning underlying trends, including a decline in unbilled deferred revenue growth to just 4% year-over-year, signaling weakening demand for multi-year contracts as the company reduces discounting to improve price realization, a trade-off that may boost near-term revenue but risks creating a future renewal cliff if customers resist higher annual pricing or shift to competing platforms with more flexible terms, especially given the sales reorganization's temporary disruption to new business productivity that management acknowledges will persist through the year.
The MaintenX acquisition carries significant execution risk, as Autodesk is paying approximately 18x next year's revenue for a business in a competitive maintenance software market where legacy players and niche solutions have struggled to achieve profitability at scale, and while management cites the construction playbook as a blueprint, the operations segment lacks the same clear workflow fragmentation and standardization drivers that made construction a successful adjacency, raising doubts about whether MaintenX can replicate the same go-to-market success without substantial customization and integration effort.
Management's confidence in absorbing MaintenX within existing margin goals overlooks the business's current lower margin profile and the substantial integration costs—including systems harmonization, sales team retraining, and potential customer confusion from overlapping offerings—that historically accompany large tuck-in acquisitions, and the commitment to maintain ~39% non-GAAP operating margin through fiscal 2029 assumes uninterrupted operating leverage from the core business, which may not materialize if sales reorganization headwinds persist or if MaintenX requires greater-than-expected investment to reach scale.
Autodesk's AI strategy, while technologically sound, faces adoption barriers as customers increasingly develop homegrown tools to supplement or replace commercial offerings, a trend acknowledged by the CEO as an ecosystem problem requiring a strong platform to orchestrate, yet the company's reliance on selling AI as a premium feature within its subscription model may limit uptake among cost-sensitive SMBs and mid-market firms, particularly if open-source or AWS-native alternatives offer comparable functionality at lower cost, undermining the monetization potential of its 3D foundation models and agentic workflows.
The company's guidance assumes a broadly stable macroenvironment, but persistent geopolitical tensions, foreign exchange headwinds, and regional economic volatility—especially in EMEA where revenue growth lagged the Americas due to sales reorganization timing and local labor law complexities—pose ongoing risks to international billings, and the dependency on a small number of high-revenue solutions like AutoCAD and AECO products means any slowdown in key verticals such as construction or manufacturing could disproportionately impact overall performance, a vulnerability not fully mitigated by the early-stage MaintenX investment which remains immaterial to total revenue at close.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

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Investment Thesis

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

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Investment Thesis

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

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