US Foods Holding USFD

NYSE USFD

$97.47 -5.61 (-5.45%)

As of: Sep 9, 2026 · 3:59 PM EDT

Key Stats

Market Cap21.36 Bn

P/E29.34

P/S0.53

Div. Yield0.00

Total Debt (Qtr)5.41 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)4.46

Add ratio to table…

About

US Foods Holding Corp. operates as a broadline foodservice distributor in the United States, supplying a wide range of fresh, frozen, and dry food products as well as non food items to approximately 250,000 customer locations. The company serves independent restaurants, chain restaurants, healthcare facilities, hospitality venues, government agencies, and educational institutions through a network of over 70 distribution centers, more than 6,500 trucks, and over 90 cash and carry locations. Its operations are supported by a proprietary ecommerce platform MOXē, a fleet that enables scheduled and rapid deliveries, and a portfolio of exclusive brands that emphasize quality and innovation.

The company generates revenue primarily from the sale of food products across categories such as meats and seafood, dry grocery, refrigerated and frozen grocery, dairy, equipment disposables and supplies, beverage products, and produce. In fiscal year 2025, sales of meats and seafood reached $13,974 million, dry grocery contributed $6,685 million, refrigerated and frozen grocery totaled $6,635 million, dairy amounted to $4,214 million, equipment disposables and supplies equaled $3,631 million, beverage products generated $2,338 million, and produce accounted for $1,947 million. Total net sales for the year were $39,424 million. Beyond product sales, US Foods Holding Corp. earns revenue from its MOXē ecommerce platform, the Pronto delivery program, US Foods Direct online offerings, and the CHEFSTORE cash and carry locations, which together provide value added services such as menu planning, inventory management, and food cost analysis. A sales force of more than 4,000 associates engages with customers at local, regional, and national levels to drive these revenues.

US Foods Holding Corp. holds a leading position among national broadline foodservice distributors, competing primarily with Sysco Corporation and Performance Food Group Company. Its competitive advantages stem from a nationwide scale that includes over 70 distribution facilities, a fleet exceeding 6,500 vehicles, and more than 90 cash and carry locations. The MOXē platform integrates ordering, inventory, and business analytics tools, helping customers improve efficiency and streamline operations. A strong portfolio of exclusive brands provides differentiated quality and price points across numerous product categories. These capabilities enable the company to offer a broad assortment, reliable service, and tailored solutions to a diverse customer base.

The company serves a broad mix of customers including independent restaurants, regional and national restaurant chains, healthcare systems such as hospitals and nursing homes, hospitality operators like hotels, country clubs, and casinos, government agencies, and educational institutions from K to 12 schools to colleges and universities. While no single customer accounted for more than 2% of total sales in fiscal year 2025, the top 50 customers represented approximately 42% of net sales. Group purchasing organizations contributed roughly 27% of revenue, reflecting the importance of consolidated buying groups in the healthcare, hospitality, education, and government sectors.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

The company's accelerated adoption of AI-driven tools like MenuIQ, with 15% of independent customers using it within two months of launch—double initial expectations—demonstrates a powerful, underappreciated catalyst for sustainable margin expansion and customer retention. This rapid uptake signals strong product-market fit and positions US Foods to deepen wallet share through data-driven insights that help operators optimize menu profitability, reduce waste, and improve operational efficiency. As these tools scale, they will likely increase switching costs for customers, enhance sales force effectiveness by enabling more value-based conversations, and drive higher attachment rates to premium services, creating a virtuous cycle of growth that transcends traditional volume-driven metrics. The success of MenuIQ also validates the broader digital transformation strategy, suggesting that upcoming innovations under the MOXY platform could unlock similar adoption rates and further differentiate the company in a commoditized industry.
The structural shift to a 100% variable sales compensation model, launching companywide next month with a phased rollout over two to three years, represents a significant, under-discussed growth lever that aligns seller incentives directly with profitable growth initiatives like wallet penetration and premium service adoption. Unlike the previous 50/50 model, this change will strongly motivate the sales force to prioritize high-margin opportunities such as private label (currently at 54% penetration with 45% of core independent customers above 60%), Pronto, and Signature—particularly as management emphasized that the new structure will "heavily incent" the sale of exclusive brands. Early feedback from pilots indicates strong engagement, and the focus on individualized transitions suggests minimal disruption while maximizing long-term efficacy. This alignment could unlock accelerated growth in high-potential segments like hospitality, where the new Signature program—modeled after the successful Vitals healthcare initiative—is gaining traction and targets complex needs like labor management and event profitability, opening doors to higher-value contracts and deeper relationships.
Despite near-term headwinds from weather and fuel costs, the company's underlying momentum remains robust, as evidenced by April independent case growth holding steady at Q1 levels—a signal of durable trends post-disruption that the market may be overlooking. This resilience, combined with 20 consecutive quarters of independent restaurant share gains and 22nd with healthcare customers, reflects a structural advantage in winning and retaining business within fragmented, high-retention segments. Furthermore, the company's ability to grow adjusted gross profit per case ($0.23, or 2.9%) faster than adjusted operating expenses per case ($0.14, or 2.3%)—driven by self-help initiatives like UMOS (now in 70 markets) and indirect procurement savings (on track for >$75M annually, up from $45M)—demonstrates operating leverage that is not yet fully reflected in valuation. These efficiencies, coupled with a net leverage of 2.6x (below peers and with no long-term debt maturities until 2028), provide significant financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives, repurchase shares ($1B remaining authorization), and pursue tuck-in M&A, which the CEO described as having an "extremely strong" pipeline, reinforcing confidence in long-term compounding ability even amid macro uncertainty.

The company's accelerated adoption of AI-driven tools like MenuIQ, with 15% of independent customers using it within two months of launch—double initial expectations—demonstrates a powerful, underappreciated catalyst for sustainable margin expansion and customer retention. This rapid uptake signals strong product-market fit and positions US Foods to deepen wallet share through data-driven insights that help operators optimize menu profitability, reduce waste, and improve operational efficiency. As these tools scale, they will likely increase switching costs for customers, enhance sales force effectiveness by enabling more value-based conversations, and drive higher attachment rates to premium services, creating a virtuous cycle of growth that transcends traditional volume-driven metrics. The success of MenuIQ also validates the broader digital transformation strategy, suggesting that upcoming innovations under the MOXY platform could unlock similar adoption rates and further differentiate the company in a commoditized industry.
The structural shift to a 100% variable sales compensation model, launching companywide next month with a phased rollout over two to three years, represents a significant, under-discussed growth lever that aligns seller incentives directly with profitable growth initiatives like wallet penetration and premium service adoption. Unlike the previous 50/50 model, this change will strongly motivate the sales force to prioritize high-margin opportunities such as private label (currently at 54% penetration with 45% of core independent customers above 60%), Pronto, and Signature—particularly as management emphasized that the new structure will "heavily incent" the sale of exclusive brands. Early feedback from pilots indicates strong engagement, and the focus on individualized transitions suggests minimal disruption while maximizing long-term efficacy. This alignment could unlock accelerated growth in high-potential segments like hospitality, where the new Signature program—modeled after the successful Vitals healthcare initiative—is gaining traction and targets complex needs like labor management and event profitability, opening doors to higher-value contracts and deeper relationships.
Despite near-term headwinds from weather and fuel costs, the company's underlying momentum remains robust, as evidenced by April independent case growth holding steady at Q1 levels—a signal of durable trends post-disruption that the market may be overlooking. This resilience, combined with 20 consecutive quarters of independent restaurant share gains and 22nd with healthcare customers, reflects a structural advantage in winning and retaining business within fragmented, high-retention segments. Furthermore, the company's ability to grow adjusted gross profit per case ($0.23, or 2.9%) faster than adjusted operating expenses per case ($0.14, or 2.3%)—driven by self-help initiatives like UMOS (now in 70 markets) and indirect procurement savings (on track for >$75M annually, up from $45M)—demonstrates operating leverage that is not yet fully reflected in valuation. These efficiencies, coupled with a net leverage of 2.6x (below peers and with no long-term debt maturities until 2028), provide significant financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives, repurchase shares ($1B remaining authorization), and pursue tuck-in M&A, which the CEO described as having an "extremely strong" pipeline, reinforcing confidence in long-term compounding ability even amid macro uncertainty.

▼ Bear case

The company's reliance on passing through only 30%-40% of fuel cost increases via surcharges—with a one-month lag—creates a persistent margin vulnerability that management may be understating, particularly if diesel prices remain elevated or volatile through the second half of 2026. Although one-third of 2026 fuel gallons are locked in via fixed-price contracts, the remaining two-thirds are exposed to spot market fluctuations, and the delayed recovery mechanism means that sudden price spikes (like those seen in April) can erode profitability before being offset. This structural exposure is compounded by the fact that weather-related disruptions caused nearly double the distribution center closure days versus the prior year, leading to irreversible demand loss and higher fixed costs without corresponding revenue—a combination that directly pressured operating cash flow, which fell to $294 million (down from $391 million YoY) due to reduced working capital benefits. While management cites self-help initiatives, the persistence of these external headwinds suggests that operational improvements may not be sufficient to insulate profitability if macro conditions worsen, especially given that consumer sentiment remains at historic lows and could further suppress discretionary dining.
The company's same-store sales growth in the chain restaurant segment remains negative at -2.3%, indicating a continued inability to gain traction with a significant portion of the foodservice market, and raising concerns about the durability of its growth model beyond its core focus areas. Although independent, healthcare, and hospitality segments are showing strength, the chain channel's decline—consistent with industry foot traffic trends per Black Box—suggests that broader economic pressures, such as persistent inflation in key categories or shifting consumer preferences toward home cooking, could limit the scalability of its current strategy. Furthermore, while private label penetration is stable at 54% for core independent customers, there is no clear evidence of accelerating momentum beyond the current levels, and the opportunity to meaningfully increase this metric may be constrained by customer loyalty to national brands or limited SKU rationalization in key categories like center-of-the-plate (COP), where the company is investing (e.g., Stock Yards expansion) but has not yet demonstrated commensurate sales velocity or margin contribution.
The upcoming transition to a 100% variable sales compensation plan, while intended to drive alignment and growth, carries meaningful execution risk that could disrupt sales force productivity and morale during the multi-year rollout, potentially offsetting anticipated benefits. Management acknowledged that it may take two to three years for the majority of the sales force to fully transition, and while they emphasize a gradual, individualized approach, the shift from a hybrid model to pure commission introduces income volatility for tenured reps—many of whom have been with the company for over two decades and previously enjoyed 100% commission in earlier eras. This change could lead to increased turnover, reduced call activity, or a shift toward lower-effort, lower-margin accounts if reps perceive insufficient support or unclear territory dynamics, particularly in a challenging macro environment. Although early feedback from pilots was positive, the lack of detailed metrics on early-stage performance post-launch leaves open the possibility that the anticipated uplift in wallet penetration and new account generation may be slower or less pronounced than expected, especially if the sales force remains preoccupied with income stability during the transition.

The company's reliance on passing through only 30%-40% of fuel cost increases via surcharges—with a one-month lag—creates a persistent margin vulnerability that management may be understating, particularly if diesel prices remain elevated or volatile through the second half of 2026. Although one-third of 2026 fuel gallons are locked in via fixed-price contracts, the remaining two-thirds are exposed to spot market fluctuations, and the delayed recovery mechanism means that sudden price spikes (like those seen in April) can erode profitability before being offset. This structural exposure is compounded by the fact that weather-related disruptions caused nearly double the distribution center closure days versus the prior year, leading to irreversible demand loss and higher fixed costs without corresponding revenue—a combination that directly pressured operating cash flow, which fell to $294 million (down from $391 million YoY) due to reduced working capital benefits. While management cites self-help initiatives, the persistence of these external headwinds suggests that operational improvements may not be sufficient to insulate profitability if macro conditions worsen, especially given that consumer sentiment remains at historic lows and could further suppress discretionary dining.
The company's same-store sales growth in the chain restaurant segment remains negative at -2.3%, indicating a continued inability to gain traction with a significant portion of the foodservice market, and raising concerns about the durability of its growth model beyond its core focus areas. Although independent, healthcare, and hospitality segments are showing strength, the chain channel's decline—consistent with industry foot traffic trends per Black Box—suggests that broader economic pressures, such as persistent inflation in key categories or shifting consumer preferences toward home cooking, could limit the scalability of its current strategy. Furthermore, while private label penetration is stable at 54% for core independent customers, there is no clear evidence of accelerating momentum beyond the current levels, and the opportunity to meaningfully increase this metric may be constrained by customer loyalty to national brands or limited SKU rationalization in key categories like center-of-the-plate (COP), where the company is investing (e.g., Stock Yards expansion) but has not yet demonstrated commensurate sales velocity or margin contribution.
The upcoming transition to a 100% variable sales compensation plan, while intended to drive alignment and growth, carries meaningful execution risk that could disrupt sales force productivity and morale during the multi-year rollout, potentially offsetting anticipated benefits. Management acknowledged that it may take two to three years for the majority of the sales force to fully transition, and while they emphasize a gradual, individualized approach, the shift from a hybrid model to pure commission introduces income volatility for tenured reps—many of whom have been with the company for over two decades and previously enjoyed 100% commission in earlier eras. This change could lead to increased turnover, reduced call activity, or a shift toward lower-effort, lower-margin accounts if reps perceive insufficient support or unclear territory dynamics, particularly in a challenging macro environment. Although early feedback from pilots was positive, the lack of detailed metrics on early-stage performance post-launch leaves open the possibility that the anticipated uplift in wallet penetration and new account generation may be slower or less pronounced than expected, especially if the sales force remains preoccupied with income stability during the transition.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer group

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Food Distribution

S.No.	Ticker	Company	match	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	SYY	Sysco Corp	primary	39.01 Bn	22.22	0.46	13.52 Bn
2	USFD	US Foods Holding Corp.	primary	21.36 Bn	29.34	0.53	5.41 Bn
3	PFGC	Performance Food Group Co	primary	14.87 Bn	41.37	0.22	5.01 Bn
4	CHEF	Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.	primary	4.27 Bn	46.45	0.97	0.72 Bn
5	UNFI	United Natural Foods Inc	primary	2.71 Bn	-73.34	0.09	1.67 Bn
6	KRT	Karat Packaging Inc.	primary	0.93 Bn	18.11	1.89	0.03 Bn
7	WILCF	G Willi Food International Ltd	primary	0.37 Bn	15.76	1.87	-
8	HFFG	HF Foods Group Inc.	primary	0.09 Bn	-2.69	0.07	0.18 Bn

US Foods Holding USFD

About

Investment Thesis

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Create an account

Sign In

Reset Password