Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0001647639
Market Cap 4.51 Bn
P/B 6.06
P/E 139.97
P/S 4.66
ROIC (Qtr) 0.76
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 70.90
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.95 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.62

About

Upstart Holdings, Inc., often referred to as Upstart, operates as a prominent artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, connecting millions of consumers to over 100 banks and credit unions. The company's primary business activities revolve around facilitating connections between consumers and lending partners offering personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small-dollar loans. Upstart's value proposition hinges on its AI models that utilize over 1,600 variables and are trained on over...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust R&D investment of 257.91M at 0.50x of SG&A 512.72M demonstrates strong commitment to innovation and future growth.
  • Strong R&D investment of 257.91M at 14.40x of capex 17.91M shows balanced investment in innovation and infrastructure.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.84B provides 42.32x coverage of intangibles 67.06M, indicating robust asset quality.
  • Cash position of 836.90M fully covers payables of 93.40M by 8.96x, showing strong vendor relationship management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (367.20M) barely covers its investment activities of (386.82M), with a coverage ratio of 0.95, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (386.82M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 257.91M, which is -1.50x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (367.20M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 129.31M, with a -2.84 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of (367.20M) provides minimal -1173.17x coverage of tax expenses of 313000, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Free cash flow of (385.11M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 17.91M, with a -21.51 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.84 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -14.55 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.74 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 164.33 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 127.14 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -13.88 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.19 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.53 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 6.06 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 139.97 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -117.40 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 27.62 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 119.15 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 122.05 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 119.35 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 119.35 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 117.71 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -368.52 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 73.29 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.33 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.62 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 5.80 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 3.36 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 3.36 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 3.30 -23.76