Trimble
NASDAQ: TRMB
$52.43 ▼ -1.30  (-2.42%)
At close: Jul 8, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap12.33 Bn
P/E27.03
P/S3.34
Div. Yield0.00
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)1.41 Bn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)11.81
Add ratio to table…

About

Trimble is a leading technology solutions and platform provider that connects office professionals and field workers across industries that build, maintain, and move the world. The company specializes in transforming workflows through digital and physical integration, enabling productivity, efficiency, and sustainability in construction, geospatial, natural resources, utilities, and transportation sectors. Trimble’s solutions span software, hardware, and cloud-based…

Read more ↓
Sector: Technology Industry: Scientific & Technical Instruments CIK: 0000864749

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Trimble's hybrid monetization strategy is gaining significant traction, with consumption-based AI products like SketchUp AI and autonomous procurement/quotation tools already generating consumption-based revenue where nearly all AI credits associated with named user licenses are being consumed monthly, indicating strong user engagement and validating the company's shift toward higher-margin, usage-based pricing models that expand its addressable market beyond traditional license seats.
  • The Document Crunch acquisition establishes a new AI-powered risk management category targeting contract intelligence and compliance automation, creating cross-sell opportunities across Trimble Construction One's project management, estimating, and ERP workflows, leveraging Trimble's proprietary data ecosystem of over 30 million managed projects and 50 million Trimble Connect users to build defensible network effects and defensible AI extensibility in the high-risk construction industry where over 80% of projects exceed budget and average claims exceed $60 million.
  • Trimble's Connect & Scale strategy is demonstrating tangible results through geographic expansion, with Trimble Construction One extending into Asia Pacific and European AECO growth outpacing North America, while Field Systems showcased innovation at ConExpo with support for new machine categories, dynamic swing booms, and ground-penetrating radar integration, reinforcing the company's leadership in connecting physical and digital workflows across its ecosystem.
  • Management affirmed the company remains on track to achieve its 2027 targets of $3 billion ARR, $4 billion revenue, and 30% EBITDA margin, supported by strong operating leverage evidenced by a 150 basis point EBITDA margin expansion to 27.4% in Q1 and guidance for 29.7% full-year EBITDA margin, while maintaining a conservative net leverage ratio of 1.1x and returning $317 million to shareholders via share repurchases in Q1 alone, leaving $608 million in remaining authorization.
▼ Bear case
  • Management explicitly acknowledged reduced visibility in the hardware business due to Middle East conflict, tariff policy uncertainty, and tougher year-over-year comparisons in the back half of the year, which were incorporated into guidance and could constrain growth in the Field Systems segment where operating margin declined slightly due to OpEx timing and growth initiatives, signaling potential headwinds in the hardware-dependent segments despite software strength.
  • While Trimble raised full-year revenue guidance by only $15 million despite beating Q1 revenue by $35 million, management explicitly stated they avoid raising guidance after the first quarter to maintain model consistency, suggesting the strong start may not be sustainable and implying conservatism in the back half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties like tariff policy and Middle East conflict that could constrain growth in Transportation & Logistics and Field Systems.
  • The company's reliance on hybrid monetization models remains unproven at scale, with consumption-based AI products like SketchUp AI and autonomous procurement/quotation tools still in early adoption phases where most user AI credits are consumed monthly but the long-term pricing power, customer retention, and ability to convert consumption into sustainable higher-margin revenue streams remain unproven, creating execution risk in monetizing AI beyond initial user engagement.
  • Despite strong ARR growth of 13% to $2.435 billion, the Transportation & Logistics segment showed only 7% revenue growth and 9% ARR growth in a constrained freight market, with operating margin expansion of 300 basis points to 24.2% potentially driven by one-time factors like the mobility divestiture rather than structural improvement, raising concerns about the segment's ability to sustain growth and margin expansion if freight market conditions do not meaningfully improve.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Scientific & Technical Instruments
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 COHR Coherent Corp. 3,591.32 Bn8,242.43543.973.19 Bn
2 NOVT Novanta Inc 69.39 Bn1,291.6169.040.24 Bn
3 KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. 57.75 Bn58.8610.172.53 Bn
4 TDY Teledyne Technologies Inc 30.63 Bn32.804.922.48 Bn
5 FTV Fortive Corp 19.14 Bn-1,495.034.523.49 Bn
6 TRMB Trimble Inc. 12.33 Bn27.033.341.41 Bn
7 CGNX Cognex Corp 11.87 Bn83.3011.34-
8 ST Sensata Technologies Holding plc 6.78 Bn139.801.822.83 Bn