Sera Prognostics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SERA)

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Medical Devices CIK: 0001534969
Market Cap 109.74 Mn
P/B 1.34
P/E -3.36
P/S 1,155.18
ROIC (Qtr) -42.77
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -44.83
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.45 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.03
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About

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a company that trades under the symbol SERA, operates in the women's health industry. The company's primary business activities involve the utilization of a proprietary proteomics and bioinformatics platform to improve maternal and neonatal health by discovering, developing, and commercializing blood-based biomarker tests and predictive analytic products and services. Sera Prognostics operates in a significant and growing market, with a focus on providing deep characterization of the biology of pregnancy, which enables the...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 4.08M provide 1360.33x coverage of short-term debt 3000, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 107.19M provides 43.82x coverage of total debt 2.45M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 107.19M provide exceptional 5.28x coverage of deferred revenue 20.32M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of (25.76M) fully covers other non-current liabilities (20.32M) by 1.27x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 107.19M provides 5.11x coverage of working capital 20.99M, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (25.76M) barely covers its investment activities of (27.01M), with a coverage ratio of 0.95, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (27.01M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 13.09M, which is -2.06x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Operating cash flow of (25.76M) provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 20.32M, which is -1.27x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Short-term investments of 39.22M significantly exceed cash reserves of 4.08M, which is 9.61x, indicating potentially excessive yield-seeking behavior at the expense of liquidity.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (25.76M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 5.71M, with a -4.51 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Medical Devices
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ABT Abbott Laboratories 173.80 Bn 32.73 5.47 12.94 Bn
2 SYK Stryker Corp 141.15 Bn 43.48 5.62 15.86 Bn
3 MDT Medtronic plc 123.47 Bn 25.92 3.55 29.10 Bn
4 BSX Boston Scientific Corp 112.80 Bn 38.92 5.62 11.44 Bn
5 EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp 45.66 Bn 33.38 7.76 0.70 Bn
6 DXCM Dexcom Inc 27.52 Bn 32.91 5.90 1.34 Bn
7 STE STERIS plc 24.13 Bn 34.08 4.14 2.05 Bn
8 PODD Insulet Corp 17.33 Bn 70.38 6.87 1.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.97 2.13
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -4.07 2.75
EV to Debt EV to Debt 42.82 17.25
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -3.21 2.89
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -2.95 4.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -4.00 29.36
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.95 25.09
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1,102.62 32.80
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.34 4.73
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -3.36 -2.04
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 40.22
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1.59
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.10
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -0.37
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -2,329.43 196.93
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -531.25 -152.08
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 52.05 8,476.58
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.44
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -1.24 -792.16
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -2.38 3.79
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -1.24 -301.80
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -1.18 -121.44
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 22.22 -87.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -77.31 10.43
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -395.00 38.21
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.55
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.02
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.17 1.80
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.89 4.18
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.03 1.20
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -2,329.43 196.93
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -2,329.43 196.93
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -32,771.60 -2,396.63
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -34,328.42 -2,478.60
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -34,343.16 -2,690.42
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) -62.10 30.80
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -34,343.20 -2,821.53