Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ: SCVL)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Retail CIK: 0000895447
Market Cap 591.44 Mn
P/B 2.12
P/E 46.02
P/S 0.64
ROIC (Qtr) 5.01
Div Yield % 1.58
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -3.17
Total Debt (Qtr) 362.79 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.53

About

Shoe Carnival Inc., often recognized by its ticker symbol SCVL, operates in the retail industry, specifically as a leading omnichannel seller of family footwear. The company's primary business model involves a "bricks" first, omnichannel approach, which aims to deliver a superior footwear shopping experience with national brand offerings. This approach provides customers with easy access to a wide variety of branded footwear for athletics, daily activities, and special events, allowing them to choose their preferred delivery channel. Shoe Carnival...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 81.81M provides exceptional 605.99x coverage of interest expenses 135000, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 1.11B provides 3.07x coverage of total debt 362.79M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 81.81M provides strong 10.03x coverage of stock compensation 8.16M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Retained earnings of 803.95M provide full 2.59x coverage of long-term debt 310.88M, indicating strong internal capital position.
  • Free cash flow of 35.09M provides exceptional 259.94x coverage of interest expense 135000, showing strong debt service ability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 81.81M barely covers its investment activities of (46.27M), with a coverage ratio of -1.77, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 94.37M against inventory of 435.30M, the 0.22 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 81.81M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (16.30M) with a -5.02 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 94.37M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (378000), which is -249.65x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 76.86M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 92.45M, with a 0.83 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Concentration Risk Type Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Concentration Risk Type Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Apparel Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 TJX Tjx Companies Inc /De/ 258.23 Bn 187.23 12.14 13.19 Bn
2 ROST Ross Stores, Inc. 72.84 Bn 60.07 5.37 5.19 Bn
3 LULU lululemon athletica inc. 20.56 Bn 11.81 1.86 1.76 Bn
4 BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. 19.19 Bn 34.23 1.71 5.94 Bn
5 GAP Gap Inc 11.39 Bn 14.10 0.73 5.52 Bn
6 URBN Urban Outfitters Inc 6.47 Bn 13.23 1.08 1.18 Bn
7 BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. 5.75 Bn 26.25 2.65 0.70 Bn
8 ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co /De/ 4.83 Bn 9.24 0.93 1.13 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.65 1.40
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 22.96 10.76
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.11 4.34
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 48.45 -65.50
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 10.44 7.78
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 36.68 15.40
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.30 2.07
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.82 1.41
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.12 6.30
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 46.02 240.04
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.55 0.87
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 27.60 12.36
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.59 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 45.60 14.72
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 569.36 9.50
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -24.72 2.00
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 22.18 97.51
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 11.43 4.12
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -22.67 -5.24
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -11.01 -28.04
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -23.81 -4.11
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -23.57 -9.48
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -22.91 -7.53
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -52.60 -177.06
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -4.29 -2.43
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.98 1.42
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.13 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.67 0.44
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 4.06 1.64
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.53 1.24
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 569.36 9.50
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 569.36 9.50
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.80 1.59
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 6.72 -10.83
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 6.71 -4.08
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 36.50 41.09
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 5.10 -5.43