PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PRG)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Rental & Leasing Services CIK: 0001808834
Market Cap 1.76 Bn
P/B 3.08
P/E 17.83
P/S 0.68
ROIC (Qtr) 12.42
Div Yield % 0.38
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -1.82
Total Debt (Qtr) 602.69 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.86
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About

PROG Holdings, Inc., commonly known as PRG, operates in the lease-to-own and consumer finance industries, providing transparent and competitive payment options to consumers. Through its three operating segments, Progressive Leasing, Vive, and Four, the company offers a range of payment solutions to individuals and businesses. Progressive Leasing is PRG's largest operating segment, providing e-commerce, app-based, and in-store point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions to consumers and businesses. The segment operates through approximately 23,000 third-party...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 305.38M provides robust 0.51x coverage of total debt 602.69M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 305.38M provides strong 10.45x coverage of stock compensation 29.22M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 295.66M exceeds capital expenditure of 9.72M by 30.43x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 1.19B provide exceptional 35.66x coverage of deferred revenue 33.34M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 305.38M provides strong 9.16x coverage of deferred revenue 33.34M, indicating service delivery capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 305.38M barely covers its investment activities of (112.56M), with a coverage ratio of -2.71, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 305.38M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (20.59M) with a -14.83 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 295.66M represents just -103.38x of debt issuance (2.86M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating earnings of 220.75M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 1.65B, with a 0.13 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 1.65B relative to operating cash flow of 305.38M, which is 5.40x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Rental & Leasing Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 URI United Rentals, Inc. 55.62 Bn 22.30 3.45 15.35 Bn
2 FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. 27.80 Bn -179.72 106.00 3.45 Bn
3 AER AerCap Holdings N.V. 26.27 Bn 7.00 3.08 43.57 Bn
4 UHAL U-Haul Holding Co /NV/ 13.75 Bn 106.91 2.29 8.06 Bn
5 GATX Gatx Corp 9.00 Bn 53.16 6.81 9.03 Bn
6 R Ryder System Inc 8.88 Bn 17.80 0.70 7.65 Bn
7 AL Air Lease Corp 7.23 Bn 6.92 2.40 19.73 Bn
8 HRI Herc Holdings Inc 5.00 Bn 5,004.00 1.14 9.68 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.39 1.32
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 8.87 77.20
EV to Debt EV to Debt 3.57 3.45
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 11.59 -105.66
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 1.09 20.85
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 9.24 -1.38
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.22 3.10
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.83 9.87
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.08 7.72
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 17.83 277.95
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 7.96 3.00
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.70 500.03
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.51 1.19
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 6.85 6.22
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 6.60 -60.94
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -13.45 17.05
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 31.97 54.66
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 41.67 0.10
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 1.81 38.63
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 4.02 5.40
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 22.57 2.84
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 24.65 42.60
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 8.06 243.85
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 134.38 5.41
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 6.47 31.59
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.62 0.54
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.07 0.03
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.21
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.01
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.86 20.57
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 6.60 -60.94
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 6.60 -60.94
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 74.60 35.32
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 8.80 12.98
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 7.47 3.50
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 35.10 42.91
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.50 1.24