Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE: NGVC)

Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Grocery Stores CIK: 0001547459
Market Cap 606.74 Mn
P/B 2.76
P/E 12.68
P/S 0.45
ROIC (Qtr) 9.45
Div Yield % 1.93
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 1.62
Total Debt (Qtr) 324.95 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.48
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About

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., often recognized by its stock symbol NGVC, is a company that operates in the natural products retail industry, a subset of the United States grocery industry and the dietary supplement business. As a specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements, the company has a rich history dating back over 68 years and has established a strong reputation and loyal customer base through its focus on high-quality products, engaging customer service experience, and commitment to sustainability. The...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 73.76M provides exceptional 25.85x coverage of interest expenses 2.85M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 73.76M provides strong 21.81x coverage of stock compensation 3.38M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 657.24M provides 63.07x coverage of working capital 10.42M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 657.24M provide robust 20.71x coverage of other current liabilities 31.73M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Free cash flow of 42.67M provides exceptional 14.96x coverage of interest expense 2.85M, showing strong debt service ability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 73.76M barely covers its investment activities of (31.13M), with a coverage ratio of -2.37, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 23.21M against inventory of 127.89M, the 0.18 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 73.76M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (11.71M) with a -6.30 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating earnings of 63.29M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 31.84M, with a 1.99 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Free cash flow of 42.67M represents just -3.38x of debt issuance (12.64M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Grocery Stores
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 KR Kroger Co 50.34 Bn 26.79 0.34 25.20 Bn
2 ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. 10.14 Bn 14.10 0.15 15.43 Bn
3 SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. 6.63 Bn 12.92 0.77 1.86 Bn
4 WMK Weis Markets Inc 1.95 Bn 30.13 0.67 0.18 Bn
5 IMKTA Ingles Markets Inc 1.60 Bn 9.10 0.27 0.54 Bn
6 GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. 1.11 Bn -251.00 0.24 1.81 Bn
7 DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd 0.61 Bn 15.44 0.18 0.35 Bn
8 NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. 0.61 Bn 12.68 0.45 0.32 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.38 0.85
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.50 10.95
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.84 2.65
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 14.56 17.17
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 9.69 4.97
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 21.60 -2.66
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.52 2.07
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.69 0.52
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.76 1.46
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 12.68 -10.31
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.08 -0.52
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 24.50 20.93
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.51 0.46
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 27.49 130.08
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 22.18 -12.18
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 12.09 0.38
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 267.48 36.75
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 21.43 3.04
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 26.93 -54.96
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 17.51 -64.08
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 27.80 -86.63
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 33.36 -219.58
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 31.65 -171.99
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 74.48 3.92
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 6.15 2.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 2.00 1.74
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.11 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.15 0.30
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.07 1.21
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.48 1.90
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 22.18 -12.18
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 22.18 -12.18
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 7.10 1.72
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 4.74 -0.05
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 4.52 -1.40
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 29.80 24.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 3.60 -1.65