Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO)

Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Grocery Stores CIK: 0001771515
Market Cap 1.11 Bn
P/B 0.93
P/E -251.00
P/S 0.24
ROIC (Qtr) 0.59
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.41
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.81 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.51
Add ratio to table...

About

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., often recognized by its stock symbol GO, is a high-growth retail company specializing in the sale of quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products through a network of independently operated stores. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California and has a rich history dating back to 1946. Grocery Outlet's unique business model, which revolves around its "WOW!" deals, sets it apart from traditional retailers. The company's business model is based on sourcing products at significant discounts from suppliers...

Read more

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 189.34M provides strong 169.35x coverage of stock compensation 1.12M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 2.51B provides 21.10x coverage of working capital 118.76M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Strong free cash flow of (28.30M) provides 2.86x coverage of acquisition spending (9.89M), indicating disciplined M&A strategy.
  • Operating cash flow of 189.34M fully covers other non-current liabilities 59.16M by 3.20x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Tangible assets of 2.51B provide robust 24.39x coverage of other current liabilities 102.75M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 189.34M barely covers its investment activities of (250.92M), with a coverage ratio of -0.75, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 52.12M against inventory of 417.85M, the 0.12 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Cash reserves of 52.12M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (9.89M), which is -5.27x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of (28.30M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 217.64M, with a -0.13 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating earnings of 24.46M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 123.58M, with a 0.20 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Grocery Stores
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 KR Kroger Co 50.34 Bn 26.79 0.34 25.20 Bn
2 ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. 10.14 Bn 14.10 0.15 15.43 Bn
3 SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. 6.63 Bn 12.92 0.77 1.86 Bn
4 WMK Weis Markets Inc 1.95 Bn 30.13 0.67 0.18 Bn
5 IMKTA Ingles Markets Inc 1.60 Bn 9.10 0.27 0.54 Bn
6 GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. 1.11 Bn -251.00 0.24 1.81 Bn
7 DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd 0.61 Bn 15.44 0.18 0.35 Bn
8 NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. 0.61 Bn 12.68 0.45 0.32 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.84 0.85
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 14.90 10.95
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.56 2.65
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 115.34 17.17
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 19.06 4.97
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -99.68 -2.66
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.53 2.07
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.62 0.52
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.93 1.46
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -251.00 -10.31
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -0.52
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 20.93
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.46
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 130.08
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.91 -12.18
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -18.57 0.38
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -24.07 36.75
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 3.04
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -25.39 -54.96
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -21.85 -64.08
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -71.52 -86.63
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -103.31 -219.58
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -107.69 -171.99
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 66.25 3.92
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 6.57 2.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.36 1.74
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.13 0.30
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.30 1.21
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.51 1.90
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.91 -12.18
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.91 -12.18
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 3.20 1.72
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 0.54 -0.05
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -0.05 -1.40
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 30.20 24.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -0.10 -1.65