Newmont
NYSE: NEM
$95.04 ▼ -3.16  (-3.22%)
At close: Jul 7, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap101.22 Bn
P/E40.95
P/S4.05
Div. Yield0.01
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)5.08 Bn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)45.85
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About

Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with significant operations and assets across the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada. In addition to gold, the company extracts copper, silver, lead, and zinc as byproducts of its mining activities. Newmont reports attributable proven and probable gold reserves of 118.2 million ounces, measured and indicated gold resources of 88.1…

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Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold CIK: 0001164727

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Newmont Corporation's ability to generate record free cash flow despite temporary operational headwinds demonstrates the resilience of its diversified, high-quality asset base, which continues to deliver consistent performance across volatile conditions. The Q1 FY26 saw the company produce 1.3 million ounces of gold, 50,000 tonnes of copper, and 9 million ounces of silver, with strong byproduct contributions supporting a favorable cost profile. Notably, silver production increased 29% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher grades at Peñasquito, and as the third-largest silver producer globally, Newmont benefited from a supportive silver price environment that enhanced free cash flow generation and unit cost management. This operational strength allowed the company to absorb challenges such as bushfires at Boddington, extreme snowfall at Brucejack, and record rainfall at Tanami, with all sites returning to normal or improved throughput levels by the second quarter. The recovery at Cadia following the April seismic event is progressing ahead of schedule, with underground power and dewatering systems restored and regulatory approval received to begin repairs, positioning the operation to return to 80% capacity within five weeks and full recovery by the end of Q2. This rapid response underscores the effectiveness of Newmont's safety protocols and ground control systems, minimizing disruption to long-term production potential. Furthermore, the company's ongoing capital-efficient plan at Yanacocha to continue mining through 2026 and into 2027 is adding low-cost ounces that are expected to benefit the 2027 production profile, with further upside potential as higher-grade areas are accessed. These factors, combined with a disciplined approach to cost management and productivity improvements, position Newmont to capture sustained value from its world-class portfolio even amid macroeconomic volatility.
  • Newmont Corporation's enhanced capital allocation framework is creating a powerful compounding effect on shareholder returns through systematic share count reduction and disciplined reinvestment, which is underappreciated by the market despite its clear execution in the Q1 FY26. The company generated $3.8 billion in cash flow from operations after working capital and a record $3.1 billion in free cash flow, even after making approximately $1.3 billion in cash tax payments, highlighting the strength of its underlying business model. This excess cash flow is being deployed according to a clear priority structure: first funding sustaining capital ($381 million in Q1), then sustaining the $1.1 billion annual dividend, and finally allocating residual cash to share repurchases. Since the last earnings call, Newmont repurchased $2.4 billion in shares, fully exhausting the prior authorization, and the board has since approved an additional $6 billion repurchase program, bringing total repurchases to $6 billion over 24 months. This aggressive return of capital is not merely a reflection of strong cash flow but a deliberate strategy to drive sustainable per share growth—on a per share basis, free cash flow is already 6% higher than it would have been without the repurchase program. The framework is designed to be sustainable through commodity cycles, maintain a resilient balance sheet anchored by a net cash target of $1 billion ± $2 billion, and maximize long-term value creation. With $8.8 billion in cash and $12.8 billion in total liquidity as of March 31, 2026, and gross debt reduced by an additional $42 million since the prior call, Newmont has ample flexibility to continue executing this framework without compromising operational integrity or growth investments. The market may be underestimating how this disciplined approach compounds over time, turning free cash flow generation into accelerating per share dividend growth and improved metrics like earnings per share and return on equity, even if absolute production or earnings growth moderates.
  • Newmont Corporation is positioning itself to benefit from structural shifts in the gold mining industry through its proactive engagement with host governments and joint venture partners, particularly in Ghana and Nevada, which could unlock long-term operational stability and value creation that is not fully reflected in current market expectations. In Ghana, the government enacted a sliding scale royalty of 5% to 12% based on gold price and adjusted the Growth and Sustainability Levy from 3% to 1%, which Newmont estimates will increase its Ghana operations' AISC by approximately $185 per ounce, translating to a $25 per ounce impact on total Newmont AISC. However, the company is actively working to offset this through global cost and productivity initiatives, and its constructive engagement with the Government of Ghana—including a recent meeting with President Mahama—demonstrates a commitment to maintaining its long-standing partnership and ensuring Ghana remains a priority destination for future investment. This proactive stance reduces the risk of operational disruption and supports the company's ability to navigate evolving fiscal environments through dialogue rather than confrontation. Similarly, in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, Newmont filed a notice of default in February regarding alleged mismanagement at the Fourmile site, but rather than pursuing litigation, it is engaged in an iterative, collaborative process with Barrick to review findings and restore operations to the highest possible level. Management emphasized that the process is orderly, ongoing, and focused on improving joint venture performance, with the hope of resolving it through mutual understanding rather than third-party intervention. This approach prioritizes operational continuity and long-term joint venture health over short-term confrontational tactics, which could preserve the value of one of Newmont's most significant assets. By focusing on technically disciplined, commercially sound engagement rather than escalation, Newmont is mitigating regulatory and partnership risks while reinforcing its reputation as a responsible operator—factors that contribute to sustainable social license to operate and could yield benefits in permitting, community relations, and long-term asset valuation that are not captured in short-term financial metrics.
▼ Bear case
  • Newmont Corporation's reliance on byproduct credits to sustain low all-in sustaining costs (AISC) creates a significant vulnerability to commodity price reversals, particularly in silver and copper, which could rapidly erode the cost advantages highlighted in the Q1 FY26 and undermine the sustainability of its free cash flow generation. Gold by-product AISC per ounce decreased 21% year-over-year to $1,029 in Q1 2026, driven primarily by favorable co-product volumes and sales pricing, especially from silver and copper, which benefited from higher grades at Peñasquito and improved throughput at Cadia. Silver production increased 29% quarter-over-quarter to 9 million ounces, and as the third-largest silver producer globally, Newmont gained substantial cost relief from these byproduct credits. However, this dynamic is inherently volatile—silver and copper prices are subject to independent market forces, and a downturn in either could quickly reverse the cost benefits. For instance, if silver prices were to decline from current levels, the byproduct credit would diminish, directly increasing gold AISC. The company's 2026 guidance assumes silver at $60.00/oz, but the average realized silver price in Q1 was $66.78, meaning any reversion toward or below the guidance assumption would reduce the byproduct benefit. Furthermore, the guidance sensitivity table shows that a $1.00 per ounce change in silver price impacts revenue by only $25 million, indicating that while silver contributes to cost offsets, it is not a dominant revenue driver—yet its influence on AISC is outsized due to the byproduct accounting treatment. This creates a scenario where Newmont's low cost structure is partly dependent on external commodity prices beyond its control, and a sustained decline in silver or copper could push AISC back toward or above the $1,680 guidance level, especially as sustaining capital spend ramps up in the second half of the year. The market may be overlooking how much of the Q1 outperformance was tied to temporary byproduct tailwinds rather than structural cost improvements, making the company's cost guidance appear more achievable than it may prove to be if co-product prices weaken.
  • Newmont Corporation's growing exposure to jurisdictional risks, particularly in Ghana and the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, presents material operational and financial challenges that are being inadequately addressed in management's communications, despite clear signs of increasing complexity and potential for disruption. In Ghana, the government's sliding scale royalty and adjusted Growth and Sustainability Levy are expected to increase AISC for Newmont's Ghana operations by approximately $185 per ounce, translating to a $25 per ounce impact on total corporate AISC—a significant headwind that was not included in the 2026 guidance. While management states it is working to offset this through global cost and productivity initiatives, it provided no concrete plan, timeline, or quantification of how much of this impact can realistically be mitigated, leaving investors to assume the full $25 per ounce may flow through to costs. Furthermore, the news that Ghana is asking Newmont to shift mining operations to local firms by the end of 2026 introduces execution risk: while the company acknowledges technical complexity in certain areas, it did not clarify what percentage of its Ghanaian operations would be affected, nor did it address potential transition costs, productivity losses, or safety implications of relying on less experienced local contractors in technically complex zones. This ambiguity increases uncertainty around the feasibility and cost of compliance. Similarly, in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, the notice of default filed in February remains unresolved, with management describing it as an "open-ended, iterative process" with no set timeline for resolution. The lack of clarity around the nature of the alleged mismanagement, the specific remedies being sought, or the potential for third-party intervention (such as arbitration or litigation) creates significant overhang. Newmont's emphasis on preserving the joint venture relationship and avoiding confrontation may delay necessary corrective actions, and the ongoing uncertainty could impair decision-making, capital allocation, or operational focus at NGM—a critical asset contributing nearly 40% of Newmont's attributable gold production. The market may be underestimating how these geopolitical and partnership risks could compound, particularly if cost pressures in Ghana persist alongside unresolved joint venture issues, potentially forcing Newmont into a position where it must choose between operational compliance, financial performance, or partner relations—none of which are favorable outcomes.
  • Newmont Corporation's capital allocation framework, while disciplined in returning cash to shareholders, may be sacrificing long-term growth potential by prioritizing share repurchases over strategic development capital investments, particularly as the company approaches a production trough in 2026 with meaningful recovery not expected until 2027 and beyond. The company spent only $239 million on development capital in Q1 2026, representing just 17% of its full-year $1.4 billion guidance, with the majority of development spend weighted to the second half of the year. This timing aligns with the guidance that H2 2026 will see 55% of development capital deployment, driven by projects like the Lihir nearshore barrier and Red Chris feasibility work. However, the market may be overestimating the near-term impact of these projects, as many—such as the Lihir nearshore barrier and Red Chris block cave—are multi-year endeavors with production benefits not expected until 2027 or later. Meanwhile, Newmont is aggressively returning capital to shareholders, having already repurchased $2.4 billion in shares since the last earnings call and securing a new $6 billion authorization, bringing total repurchases to $6 billion over 24 months. While this boosts per share metrics, it reduces the cash available for reinvestment in high-return opportunities that could accelerate the recovery from the 2026 trough. The company's own guidance indicates that attributable gold production in 2026 is expected to be approximately 52% weighted to the second half of the year, with the increase driven by Boddington, Tanami, Lihir, Cerro Negro, and Peñasquito—but many of these improvements depend on the successful execution of development projects that are still in early or mid-stages. For instance, the Tanami Expansion 2 project had work fully resume after a temporary pause, with the underground primary crusher commissioned and materials handling system on track for Q2 completion, but full production benefits are not expected until later in the year. Similarly, at Ahafo North, production is ramping up in its first full year of commercial production, but the mine is still in its early stages and has not yet reached steady-state output. By allocating significant excess cash to share repurchases rather than accelerating development capital, Newmont may be delaying the very projects that could drive the anticipated production recovery in H2 2026 and beyond, leaving investors to rely on a timeline that assumes smooth execution without accounting for potential delays, cost overruns, or technical challenges in complex underground projects like block caves at Cadia and Red Chris. This creates a risk that the expected 2027 production uplift could be delayed or diminished, undermining the thesis of near-term growth acceleration that underpins confidence in the stock despite aggressive shareholder returns.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

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1 B Barrick Mining Corp 978.09 Bn236.2772.174.67 Bn
2 TRX TRX GOLD Corp 189.48 Bn16,794.851,991.020.00 Bn
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4 OR OR Royalties Inc. 53.18 Bn157.77163.48-
5 WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. 50.59 Bn-198,625.9126.900.01 Bn
6 AUGO Aura Minerals Inc. 50.25 Bn434.64346.82-
7 FNV FRANCO NEVADA Corp 40.21 Bn208.6719.10-
8 GFI Gold Fields Ltd 30.19 Bn8.463.452.74 Bn