Barrick Mining
NYSE: B
$36.85 ▼ -1.26  (-3.32%)
At close: Jul 7, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap978.09 Bn
P/E236.27
P/S72.17
Div. Yield0.00
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)4.67 Bn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)66.71
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About

Barrick engages in the responsible production and sale of gold and copper, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. The company operates mines across North America, South America, Africa and the Middle East, delivering metals to global markets through a diversified portfolio of assets. Barrick generates revenue primarily from the sale of gold bullion to the spot market and independent refineries, the sale of gold and copper concentrate to…

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Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold CIK: 0000756894

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Barrick Mining Corporation possesses one of the industry's largest and most valuable reserve bases, with attributable proven and probable gold reserves totaling 85 million ounces and measured and indicated resources of 150 million ounces as of year-end 2025, providing a multi-decade production foundation that remains significantly underappreciated by the market focused on near-term volatility; this extensive resource pipeline, particularly the high-potential ARC discovery at Kibali which added 3.5 million ounces to resources including 1 million ounces converted to reserves, offers substantial organic growth leverage that is not being priced into current valuations despite management's explicit commitment to further drilling in 2026 to expand this high-grade discovery. The operational review conducted in late 2025 has fundamentally reset Barrick's execution framework across North America, with mine plans rebuilt from the bottom up using actual achievable productivities rather than top-down targets, resulting in a disciplined approach that delivered record Q4 throughput at the Carlin roaster and the best sixty days of processing performance since the Nevada joint venture's formation, yet the market continues to view Nevada production as structurally declining despite clear evidence of operational stabilization and improving trends in January performance that suggest a sustainable inflection point is underway. The pending IPO of Barrick's North American gold assets represents a materially underrecognized value catalyst, as management emphasized the current portfolio is substantially undervalued within the corporate structure and the IPO will "shine a light on that valuation" to drive a rerate for all shareholders, with the process targeting completion by late 2026 and early indications suggesting an initial offering of 10-15% of the Nevada gold mines and Fourmile assets, which could unlock significant sum-of-the-parts value without triggering the conglomerate discount concerns management explicitly addressed during Q&A. Despite generating $7.7 billion in operating cash flow and $3.9 billion in free cash flow for 2025—a 194% year-over-year increase—the market has not fully appreciated the durability of this cash generation profile, which is underpinned by operating leverage demonstrated through steadily increasing EBITDA margins tracking gold prices higher, enabling the company to reinvest $3 billion back into the business while returning $1.5 billion via share repurchases and increasing dividends by 140% quarter-over-quarter to 42¢ per share, all while maintaining a net cash position of $2 billion and funding future growth initiatives without reliance on external financing. Barrick's strategic resolution of the Mali dispute and restoration of operational control at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, achieved without asset sale discussions despite investor inquiries, positions the company to benefit from steady production ramp-up throughout 2026 with guidance of 260-290,000 attributable ounces, yet the market overlooks this Africa/Middle East region's seventh consecutive year of meeting production guidance and the potential for incremental output as underground mines are fully commissioned and open pit operations resume in the second half of the year.
▼ Bear case
  • Barrick Mining Corporation faces persistent metallurgical challenges at its Pascua-Lama (PV) asset where recovery rates remain significantly below feasibility study expectations, with current performance at approximately 75-76% versus the targeted 84%, and despite extensive test work in 2025 and an updated 43-101 report due at the end of February, management acknowledged that achieving the target recovery will require years of optimization and blending of weathered stockpiles, creating a material overhang on long-term production forecasts that is not adequately reflected in guidance assuming life-of-mine extension to 2048. The company's capital allocation shift toward an exclusive focus on dividends—evidenced by the non-renewal of the annual share buyback program and adoption of a policy targeting 50% of attributable free cash flow for payouts—may limit financial flexibility during downturns, particularly as C1 cash costs increased in Q4 due to higher maintenance and interim power expenses, and with no forward-looking cost or CapEx guidance provided for 2027 and beyond, investors lack visibility into whether operating leverage can be sustained if gold prices stabilize or decline from current elevated levels. Despite management's characterization of Nevada as stabilized, gold production guidance for 2026 ranges from 2.9 to 3.25 million ounces, which represents a year-over-year decline from the 3.26 million ounces produced in 2025 (adjusted to ~3.0 million ounces excluding divested assets), and with production expected to be split 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half of 2026, the reliance on second-half ramp-ups from Loulo-Gounkoto and Goldrush introduces execution risk that could delay anticipated production recovery if African operations face renewed instability or permitting delays. The North American IPO process, while positioned as a value-unlocking initiative, remains encumbered by unresolved structural complexities including pending discussions with Newmont regarding JV ownership change clauses and an ongoing security situation review in Balochistan that delayed record financing, suggesting that the path to completion by late 2026 may face unforeseen legal, regulatory, or geopolitical hurdles that could diminish expected proceeds or prolong the timeline, thereby delaying the anticipated valuation rerate. Barrick's substantial reserve base of 85 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves carries inherent risk of future downgrades, as the resource base includes 43 million ounces of inferred resources that require conversion through costly drilling campaigns, and with reserves calculated using a conservative $1,500 per ounce gold price assumption (modestly higher than last year), any sustained drop in gold prices below this threshold could trigger reserve revisions that undermine the long-term production outlook, particularly given the company's history of asset sales when properties did not fit its tier-one strategic filter.

Segment consolidation items [axis] Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Geographical areas [axis] Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Gold
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 B Barrick Mining Corp 978.09 Bn236.2772.174.67 Bn
2 TRX TRX GOLD Corp 189.48 Bn16,794.851,991.020.00 Bn
3 NEM NEWMONT Corp /DE/ 101.22 Bn40.954.055.08 Bn
4 OR OR Royalties Inc. 53.18 Bn157.77163.48-
5 WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. 50.59 Bn-198,625.9126.900.01 Bn
6 AUGO Aura Minerals Inc. 50.25 Bn434.64346.82-
7 FNV FRANCO NEVADA Corp 40.21 Bn208.6719.10-
8 GFI Gold Fields Ltd 30.19 Bn8.463.452.74 Bn