Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LW)

Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Packaged Foods CIK: 0001679273
Market Cap 7.17 Bn
P/B -9.45
P/E 22.62
P/S 2.33
ROIC (Qtr) 8.09
Div Yield % 0.79
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 1.07
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.92 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.23
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About

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW), a prominent player in the frozen potato products market, is a company that has made a significant impact on the industry. With a robust presence in North America and an expanding footprint in international markets, Lamb Weston has established itself as a leader in the production, distribution, and marketing of value-added frozen potato products. The company's operations span across various countries and regions, providing a diverse range of products to a wide customer base. Lamb Weston's primary source of revenue...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 969.40M provides strong 25.71x coverage of stock compensation 37.70M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 665.50M exceeds capital expenditure of 303.90M by 2.19x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 969.40M provides 1.54x coverage of SG&A expenses 629.50M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 969.40M fully covers other non-current liabilities 524.60M by 1.85x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 6.12B provides 10.07x coverage of working capital 607.90M, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 969.40M barely covers its investment activities of (300.40M), with a coverage ratio of -3.23, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 82.70M against inventory of 1.12B, the 0.07 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 969.40M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (206.90M) with a -4.69 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 665.50M represents just -3.26x of debt issuance (204.40M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating earnings of 734.60M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 388M, with a 1.89 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Packaged Foods
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 KHC Kraft Heinz Co 28.20 Bn -4.82 1.13 21.22 Bn
2 GIS General Mills Inc 26.99 Bn 20.72 1.54 13.73 Bn
3 JBS Jbs N.V. 17.81 Bn 10.08 0.23 23.92 Bn
4 MKC Mccormick & Co Inc 16.10 Bn 44.21 3.77 4.00 Bn
5 HRL Hormel Foods Corp /De/ 12.37 Bn 18.03 1.34 2.86 Bn
6 SJM J M SMUCKER Co 11.08 Bn 19.60 1.97 7.91 Bn
7 PPC Pilgrims Pride Corp 10.32 Bn 9.54 0.56 3.29 Bn
8 MICC Magnum Ice Cream Co N.V. 9.71 Bn 28.17 1.04 4.02 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.99 1.47
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 19.56 29.75
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.86 27.85
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 14.95 86.88
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 13.73 -156.20
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 44.00 -5.67
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.01 1.15
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.37 7.32
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -9.45 8.48
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 22.62 14.45
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.90 4.58
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 53.00 3.76
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.48 0.65
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 31.00 22.76
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 4.09 6.64
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 66.04 -118.07
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 4.68 43.48
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 2.78 0.66
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 7.69 -48.16
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 7.10 -152.35
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 6.53 -50.79
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 5.71 -54.94
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 9.41 -28.10
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 642.38 7.02
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 0.43 439.70
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.88 1.01
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.16 0.12
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.06 0.86
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.43 2.60
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.23 2.21
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 4.09 6.64
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 4.09 6.64
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 17.30 -919.13
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 11.35 -1,474.87
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 8.57 -1,537.76
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 22.10 26.98
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.10 -1,538.60