Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: LUMN)

Sector: Communication Services Industry: Telecom Services CIK: 0000018926
Market Cap 8.05 Bn
P/B -6.86
P/E -4.87
P/S 0.63
ROIC (Qtr) -2.04
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -4.16
Total Debt (Qtr) 17.95 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -15.30
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About

Lumen Technologies, Inc., often referred to as Lumen, is a prominent player in the technology and communications industry, offering an extensive range of integrated products and services to both domestic and global business customers, as well as domestic mass markets. The company boasts one of the world's most interconnected networks, enabling customers to swiftly adapt digital programs, enhance efficiencies, expedite market access, and reduce costs. Lumen's primary offerings include its flagship brand, Lumen, which caters to the enterprise and...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 2.40B provide 6.54x coverage of short-term debt 367M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 4.86B provides strong 113.12x coverage of stock compensation 43M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 4.86B provides 1.64x coverage of SG&A expenses 2.97B, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 29.88B provides 6.26x coverage of working capital 4.78B, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 29.88B provide robust 12.07x coverage of other current liabilities 2.48B, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 4.86B barely covers its investment activities of (3.50B), with a coverage ratio of -1.39, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 4.86B provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 7.20B, which is 0.68x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Free cash flow of 1.35B provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 3.51B, with a 0.39 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating cash flow of 4.86B provides minimal -7.22x coverage of tax expenses of (674M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of (965M) show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 2.83B, with a -0.34 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Consolidation Items Breakdown of Revenue (2020)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Telecom Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. 247.58 Bn 22.52 2.80 118.74 Bn
2 T At&T Inc. 210.50 Bn 12.86 1.15 155.04 Bn
3 VZ Verizon Communications Inc 202.20 Bn 11.00 1.54 181.64 Bn
4 CMCSA Comcast Corp 180.83 Bn 58.43 5.08 98.94 Bn
5 VOD Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co 44.88 Bn 3.20 0.62 60.54 Bn
6 CHT Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd 33.41 Bn 26.87 4.32 1.20 Bn
7 SATS EchoStar CORP 32.60 Bn -2.52 2.15 30.58 Bn
8 CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. /Mo/ 32.03 Bn 6.42 0.58 96.20 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.72 0.87
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 5.07 7.73
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.37 40.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -25.55 2.24
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 10.38 2.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 18.22 33.34
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 3.06 1.71
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.94 5.12
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -6.86 2.16
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -4.87 76.35
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -0.17
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.05
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.79
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 8.04
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -0.71 -2.53
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -28.89 19.27
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -9.05 61.85
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -2.07
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 23.71 373.65
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 57.28 192.47
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -1.79 814.56
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -3.24 -29.03
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 23.50 141.81
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -20.65 78.17
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -8.98 -10.71
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.37 0.60
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.61 0.68
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.21 1.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -15.30 -0.46
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -0.71 -2.53
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -0.71 -2.53
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.70 46.49
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -7.60 -51.60
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -18.33 27.73
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 47.10 55.49
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -13.00 26.33