Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASDAQ: GSHD)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance Brokers CIK: 0001726978
Market Cap 1.80 Bn
P/B -17.18
P/E 59.61
P/S 5.09
ROIC (Qtr) 21.14
Div Yield % 8.26
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 15.89
Total Debt (Qtr) 350.65 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -3.34

About

Goosehead Insurance, Inc., also known as GSHD, operates in the insurance industry with a focus on personal lines policies in the United States. The company has disrupted the traditional approach to distributing personal lines policies by offering a differentiated business model and innovative technology platform that delivers a superior experience to its insurance customers. Goosehead's primary business activities include providing home and auto insurance products to individual consumers through its proprietary online quoting platform, Digital...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 54.52M provide 5.65x coverage of short-term debt 9.65M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Tangible assets of 369.22M provide exceptional 108.56x coverage of deferred revenue 3.40M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Robust free cash flow of 65.74M exceeds capital expenditure of 15.37M by 4.28x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 81.11M provides strong 23.85x coverage of deferred revenue 3.40M, indicating service delivery capability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 369.22M provides 8.22x coverage of working capital 44.94M, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 81.11M barely covers its investment activities of (17.97M), with a coverage ratio of -4.51, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 81.11M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (204.53M) with a -0.40 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 54.52M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (2.60M), which is -20.95x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 81.11M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 24.73M, with a 3.28 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Other non-current liabilities of 181.77M represent a high 0.49x of tangible assets 369.22M, suggesting significant long-term obligations without clear asset backing.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Timing of Transfer of Good or Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance Brokers
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MMC Marsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. 92.62 Bn 29.47 4.67 21.43 Bn
2 AON Aon plc 74.51 Bn 27.41 4.38 17.44 Bn
3 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 55.76 Bn 51.09 5.25 13.69 Bn
4 BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. 22.82 Bn 108.30 13.93 7.97 Bn
5 WTW Willis Towers Watson Plc 22.12 Bn 46.77 5.80 5.91 Bn
6 ERIE Erie Indemnity Co 13.10 Bn 45.46 4.72 0.00 Bn
7 CRVL Corvel Corp 3.53 Bn 33.49 3.78 0.02 Bn
8 ARX Accelerant Holdings 2.62 Bn 96.44 4.35 0.12 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 5.10 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 25.39 26.54
EV to Debt EV to Debt 5.87 10.83
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 38.39 15.57
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 25.92 12.32
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 31.32 38.93
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.14 -1,866.90
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.82 2.59
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -17.18 3.17
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 59.61 24.79
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.15 0.83
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 492.50 31.35
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 5.91 1.08
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 226.09 18.16
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.69 -4.53
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -22.15 423.33
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 8.80 -3.76
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -1.10
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 72.99 -9.09
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 68.39 -5.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 136.17 8.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 115.22 -4.46
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 53.85 -68.33
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 9.70 -67.66
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 38.14 52.95
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.88 0.62
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 2.12 0.16
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.13 0.54
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.93 2.11
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -3.34 0.93
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.69 -4.53
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.69 -4.53
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 17.40 6.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 15.15 -108.04
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 9.53 -14.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 45.60 53.35
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 8.50 -17.46