Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Great Southern Bancorp

NASDAQ: GSBC

$79.36 ▲ +1.03 (+1.31%)

At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap881.16 Mn

P/E12.36

P/S2.81

Div. Yield0.02

Total Debt (Qtr)25.77 Mn

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About

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. is a bank holding company and the parent of Great Southern Bank, providing a full range of banking and banking related services through its branch network and loan production offices across multiple states. At December 31, 2025 the company reported consolidated total assets of $5.60 billion, net loans of $4.36 billion, deposits of $4.48 billion and total stockholders equity of $636.1 million. The bank operates 88 full service retail banking offices and several commercial loan production offices in states including Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Arkansas and Nebraska. Great Southern Bank offers commercial real estate loans, construction loans, other commercial loans, residential mortgages, home equity loans and consumer loans to its customers. The bank also provides mortgage lending services through a dedicated office in Springfield, Missouri.

The company generates revenue primarily from interest income on its loan portfolio, which includes commercial real estate loans, construction loans, other commercial loans, residential mortgages, home equity loans and consumer loans. Interest income is complemented by deposit service charges, fees on letters of credit, loan servicing income and gains on the sale of loans. Additional noninterest income is derived from investment securities, subsidiaries and fees from loan commitments, prepayments and late payment charges. At December 31, 2025 the bank’s net interest income represented a significant portion of its total revenue, while fee based income contributed to earnings diversity.

Great Southern Bancorp operates in a highly competitive banking environment that includes large national banks such as UMB Bank, U. S. Bank and Bank of America, regional banks, credit unions, finance companies and financial technology firms. Despite this competition the company maintains a strong market position in its core areas by emphasizing community relationships, offering a diversified loan mix and maintaining a well capitalized balance sheet. At December 31, 2025 the bank’s Tier 1 risk based capital ratio exceeded regulatory minimums and it was classified as well capitalized, which supports its ability to withstand economic stress and continue lending. The bank’s market share in the Springfield, Missouri metropolitan area ranked first among local depository institutions with a 13.4% share of deposits as of June 30, 2025. In the St. Louis, Missouri area the bank held a 0.4% deposit market share, ranking forty first among competitors. These positions reflect the bank’s focus on serving local communities while competing with larger national players.

The company serves approximately 192,900 customers consisting of individuals, small and medium sized businesses, commercial real estate developers and institutional clients across its six state footprint. Deposit concentrations are largest in the Springfield and St. Louis areas of Missouri, with additional significant concentrations in the Kansas City, Des Moines, Minneapolis and Quad Cities markets. Loans are also generated in banking centers serving rural communities in Missouri, Iowa and Kansas. The bank’s commercial loan production offices are located in Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Omaha and Phoenix, extending its lending reach beyond the traditional branch network. During 2025 Great Southern associates donated over 6,200 hours to community organizations and contributed nearly $56,000 in monetary donations, demonstrating the bank’s commitment to the communities it serves.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

GSBC demonstrates a resilient and improving net interest margin, which reached 3.71% in Q1 FY26, up from 3.57% in the year-ago quarter and matching the sequential level from Q4 FY25. This improvement occurred despite the absence of approximately $2 million in quarterly income from a terminated interest rate swap, indicating underlying strength in the bank's core lending and funding activities. Management's ability to maintain attractive asset yields while strategically managing funding costs—evidenced by lower interest expense on deposits and borrowings—has allowed the bank to offset headwinds from swap-related income loss. The benefit of $483,000 in collected unbooked interest further supported margin performance, suggesting that non-recurring items are not the sole driver of margin stability. This core operational efficiency positions GSBC to benefit from any future stabilization or increase in market rates without relying on temporary income sources. The disciplined approach to asset-liability management reflects a structural advantage in navigating interest rate volatility, which the market may be underestimating as a sustainable source of earnings power. GSBC
The bank is making strategic, long-term investments in IT infrastructure and customer-facing technologies, including data security upgrades and interactive teller machines (ITMs), which Joseph Turner indicated could add $200,000 to $250,000 per month to expense levels once fully operational over the next 3 to 6 quarters. While these investments will pressure near-term efficiency ratios, they represent a forward-looking commitment to modernizing the franchise and enhancing long-term competitiveness. The projects are focused on improving operational resilience, customer experience, and digital capabilities—areas increasingly critical in community banking. Management’s decision to defer certain hardware and software projects in Q1 FY26 (which reduced expenses by $30,000 year-over-year) signals prudent timing, not a lack of commitment. These expenditures are not discretionary luxuries but necessary investments to retain and grow relationships in a competitive market. The market may be overlooking the potential for these upgrades to drive future fee income growth, improve customer retention, and reduce long-term operational risk, thereby supporting sustainable tangible book value accretion beyond the current quarter. GSBC
GSBC’s capital deployment strategy remains shareholder-friendly and disciplined, with tangible book value per share increasing to $58.27 at March 31, 2026, from $57.50 at December 31, 2025, despite repurchasing 268,664 shares at an average price of $62.55 and paying $0.43 per share in dividends. This growth in tangible book value—achieved through $17.5 million in net income and $4.6 million from stock option exercises—demonstrates that the bank is generating sufficient internal capital to support both returns to shareholders and reinvestment in the franchise. The repurchase activity reflects management’s confidence in intrinsic value, particularly as they continue to view the stock as attractive relative to tangible book value earn-back metrics. With approximately 419,000 shares still available under the repurchase authorization and a strong capital position (11.1% of total assets), GSBC has flexibility to continue returning capital even if loan growth remains modest. The market may be underappreciating the quality of this capital generation, which is supported by excellent asset quality (0.18% nonperforming assets to total assets) and minimal credit costs, allowing for sustainable per-share value creation independent of aggressive loan growth. GSBC

GSBC demonstrates a resilient and improving net interest margin, which reached 3.71% in Q1 FY26, up from 3.57% in the year-ago quarter and matching the sequential level from Q4 FY25. This improvement occurred despite the absence of approximately $2 million in quarterly income from a terminated interest rate swap, indicating underlying strength in the bank's core lending and funding activities. Management's ability to maintain attractive asset yields while strategically managing funding costs—evidenced by lower interest expense on deposits and borrowings—has allowed the bank to offset headwinds from swap-related income loss. The benefit of $483,000 in collected unbooked interest further supported margin performance, suggesting that non-recurring items are not the sole driver of margin stability. This core operational efficiency positions GSBC to benefit from any future stabilization or increase in market rates without relying on temporary income sources. The disciplined approach to asset-liability management reflects a structural advantage in navigating interest rate volatility, which the market may be underestimating as a sustainable source of earnings power. GSBC
The bank is making strategic, long-term investments in IT infrastructure and customer-facing technologies, including data security upgrades and interactive teller machines (ITMs), which Joseph Turner indicated could add $200,000 to $250,000 per month to expense levels once fully operational over the next 3 to 6 quarters. While these investments will pressure near-term efficiency ratios, they represent a forward-looking commitment to modernizing the franchise and enhancing long-term competitiveness. The projects are focused on improving operational resilience, customer experience, and digital capabilities—areas increasingly critical in community banking. Management’s decision to defer certain hardware and software projects in Q1 FY26 (which reduced expenses by $30,000 year-over-year) signals prudent timing, not a lack of commitment. These expenditures are not discretionary luxuries but necessary investments to retain and grow relationships in a competitive market. The market may be overlooking the potential for these upgrades to drive future fee income growth, improve customer retention, and reduce long-term operational risk, thereby supporting sustainable tangible book value accretion beyond the current quarter. GSBC
GSBC’s capital deployment strategy remains shareholder-friendly and disciplined, with tangible book value per share increasing to $58.27 at March 31, 2026, from $57.50 at December 31, 2025, despite repurchasing 268,664 shares at an average price of $62.55 and paying $0.43 per share in dividends. This growth in tangible book value—achieved through $17.5 million in net income and $4.6 million from stock option exercises—demonstrates that the bank is generating sufficient internal capital to support both returns to shareholders and reinvestment in the franchise. The repurchase activity reflects management’s confidence in intrinsic value, particularly as they continue to view the stock as attractive relative to tangible book value earn-back metrics. With approximately 419,000 shares still available under the repurchase authorization and a strong capital position (11.1% of total assets), GSBC has flexibility to continue returning capital even if loan growth remains modest. The market may be underappreciating the quality of this capital generation, which is supported by excellent asset quality (0.18% nonperforming assets to total assets) and minimal credit costs, allowing for sustainable per-share value creation independent of aggressive loan growth. GSBC

▼ Bear case

GSBC’s loan growth remains heavily dependent on temporary reductions in loan repayments rather than sustainable new originations, with total loans increasing nearly $100 million in Q1 FY26 primarily due to lighter-than-average paydowns. Management explicitly acknowledged that had loan payoffs remained consistent with levels from the second half of 2025, loan balances would have been $100 million or more lower, indicating that the reported growth is not reflective of strong organic demand. The increase was concentrated in construction and commercial real estate lending, partially offset by declines in multifamily, suggesting sector-specific imbalances rather than broad-based expansion. Furthermore, the bank continues to monitor isolated examples of slower lease-ups on projects and broader credit concerns amid market volatility, signaling potential weakness in the pipeline of new creditworthy borrowers. This reliance on repayment variability introduces significant unpredictability into future loan growth, making it difficult to model consistent earnings expansion and suggesting that the current balance sheet expansion may be cyclical rather than structural. GSBC
The bank’s net interest income continues to face structural headwinds from the termination of its interest rate swap, which previously contributed approximately $2 million per quarter—a meaningful portion of total net interest income. Although offset in Q1 FY26 by disciplined funding cost management and $483,000 in collected unbooked interest, these offsets are not reliable or scalable long-term solutions. The unbooked interest recoveries are described as sporadic and non-recurring, with Rex Copeland noting similar occurrences in prior quarters ($744,000 in Q1 FY25) but offering no assurance of future payments. Meanwhile, the bank’s liability structure remains sensitive to short-term rate movements, with significant reliance on overnight advances from the FHLB, which could compress margins if deposit betas rise or if short-term funding costs increase faster than asset yields. Management’s assertion that a 25 basis point rate cut would not be impactful relies on the assumption that liabilities reprice quickly—but this also implies vulnerability in a rising rate environment if asset yields lag. The market may be ignoring the erosion of a key historical income driver and the lack of a clear, sustainable replacement for swap-related earnings. GSBC
Expense management, while currently favorable due to one-time benefits, is poised for upward pressure as deferred IT and infrastructure projects resume throughout 2026. The $30,000 year-over-year decline in noninterest expense was driven by a $261,000 insurance reimbursement for legal fees and the postponement of projects that would have increased hardware and software costs—both of which are non-recurring or temporary in nature. As these projects come online, Rex Copeland acknowledged that noninterest expense levels will increase "a bit throughout the year," with Joseph Turner specifying that fully implemented IT upgrades could add $200,000 to $250,000 monthly to expenses. This translates to an additional $2.4 to $3.0 million in quarterly noninterest expense, which would significantly elevate the efficiency ratio from its current 62.85% and erode pretax profitability. Furthermore, the bank’s efficiency ratio and noninterest expense-to-assets ratio already worsened year-over-year (to 62.85% and 2.47%, respectively), indicating that underlying cost pressures are building even before the full impact of new investments. The market may be overlooking the near-term earnings drag from these necessary but costly initiatives, particularly if loan growth does not accelerate to offset rising expenses. GSBC

GSBC’s loan growth remains heavily dependent on temporary reductions in loan repayments rather than sustainable new originations, with total loans increasing nearly $100 million in Q1 FY26 primarily due to lighter-than-average paydowns. Management explicitly acknowledged that had loan payoffs remained consistent with levels from the second half of 2025, loan balances would have been $100 million or more lower, indicating that the reported growth is not reflective of strong organic demand. The increase was concentrated in construction and commercial real estate lending, partially offset by declines in multifamily, suggesting sector-specific imbalances rather than broad-based expansion. Furthermore, the bank continues to monitor isolated examples of slower lease-ups on projects and broader credit concerns amid market volatility, signaling potential weakness in the pipeline of new creditworthy borrowers. This reliance on repayment variability introduces significant unpredictability into future loan growth, making it difficult to model consistent earnings expansion and suggesting that the current balance sheet expansion may be cyclical rather than structural. GSBC
The bank’s net interest income continues to face structural headwinds from the termination of its interest rate swap, which previously contributed approximately $2 million per quarter—a meaningful portion of total net interest income. Although offset in Q1 FY26 by disciplined funding cost management and $483,000 in collected unbooked interest, these offsets are not reliable or scalable long-term solutions. The unbooked interest recoveries are described as sporadic and non-recurring, with Rex Copeland noting similar occurrences in prior quarters ($744,000 in Q1 FY25) but offering no assurance of future payments. Meanwhile, the bank’s liability structure remains sensitive to short-term rate movements, with significant reliance on overnight advances from the FHLB, which could compress margins if deposit betas rise or if short-term funding costs increase faster than asset yields. Management’s assertion that a 25 basis point rate cut would not be impactful relies on the assumption that liabilities reprice quickly—but this also implies vulnerability in a rising rate environment if asset yields lag. The market may be ignoring the erosion of a key historical income driver and the lack of a clear, sustainable replacement for swap-related earnings. GSBC
Expense management, while currently favorable due to one-time benefits, is poised for upward pressure as deferred IT and infrastructure projects resume throughout 2026. The $30,000 year-over-year decline in noninterest expense was driven by a $261,000 insurance reimbursement for legal fees and the postponement of projects that would have increased hardware and software costs—both of which are non-recurring or temporary in nature. As these projects come online, Rex Copeland acknowledged that noninterest expense levels will increase "a bit throughout the year," with Joseph Turner specifying that fully implemented IT upgrades could add $200,000 to $250,000 monthly to expenses. This translates to an additional $2.4 to $3.0 million in quarterly noninterest expense, which would significantly elevate the efficiency ratio from its current 62.85% and erode pretax profitability. Furthermore, the bank’s efficiency ratio and noninterest expense-to-assets ratio already worsened year-over-year (to 62.85% and 2.47%, respectively), indicating that underlying cost pressures are building even before the full impact of new investments. The market may be overlooking the near-term earnings drag from these necessary but costly initiatives, particularly if loan growth does not accelerate to offset rising expenses. GSBC

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Banks - Regional

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	KB	KB Financial Group Inc.	42,090.38 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.01 Mn	56.66 Bn
2	SHG	Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd	33,919.15 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.00 Mn	40.46 Bn
3	BCH	Bank Of Chile	4,123.52 Bn	368.17 Bn	1.57 Mn	0.00 Bn
4	LYG	Lloyds Banking Group plc	360.83 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.00 Mn	42.37 Bn
5	FCAP	First Capital Inc	204.17 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.03 Mn	-
6	LARK	Landmark Bancorp Inc	187.97 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.00 Mn	0.00 Bn
7	NWG	NatWest Group plc	144.82 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.00 Mn	94.66 Bn
8	PNC	Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc.	101.80 Bn	0.00 Bn	0.00 Mn	21.42 Bn

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