Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Security & Protection Services CIK: 0000923796
Market Cap 2.02 Bn
P/B 1.33
P/E 8.48
P/S 0.80
ROIC (Qtr) 5.77
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 13.13
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.63 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.07
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About

GEO Group Inc., often referred to as GEO, operates in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities. The company is based in the United States, with additional operations in Australia and South Africa. It provides a variety of services, including secure facility management, reentry services, electronic monitoring and supervision services, and community-based services. GEO's main business activities revolve around the provision of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 353.90M provide 18.43x coverage of short-term debt 19.20M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 2.93B provides 11.17x coverage of working capital 262.69M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Cash reserves of 353.90M provide robust 0.84x coverage of current liabilities 422.63M, indicating strong short-term solvency.
  • Tangible assets of 2.93B provide robust 8.76x coverage of other current liabilities 334.71M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Cash reserves of 353.90M provide solid 1.39x coverage of other non-current liabilities 255.48M, indicating strong liquidity.

Bear case

  • Free cash flow of 26.34M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 182.07M, with a 0.14 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • High depreciation of 129.69M relative to operating cash flow of 208.41M, which is 0.62x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.
  • Free cash flow of 26.34M represents just -0.17x of debt issuance (158.63M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 208.41M shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of (48000), which is -4341.92x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.
  • Retained earnings of 262.49M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (15.61M), which is -16.82x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Security & Protection Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ALLE Allegion plc 14.00 Bn 21.75 3.44 1.98 Bn
2 MSA MSA Safety Inc 7.99 Bn 374.33 5.71 0.63 Bn
3 BCO Brinks Co 6.24 Bn 112.89 1.74 4.32 Bn
4 BRC Brady Corp 4.99 Bn 38.51 4.29 0.18 Bn
5 ADT ADT Inc. 4.95 Bn -9.23 1.68 7.81 Bn
6 CXW CoreCivic, Inc. 2.04 Bn 18.69 0.98 1.04 Bn
7 GEO Geo Group Inc 2.02 Bn 8.48 0.80 1.63 Bn
8 NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc 1.57 Bn 33.18 8.19 0.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.94 1.53
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 17.10 15.25
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.19 44.60
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 7.38 8.47
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 9.60 14.35
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 135.30 28.03
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.77 0.95
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.41 2.53
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.33 3.48
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 8.48 32.21
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 106.48
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 25.28
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 7.91
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.91 -11.72
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -127.49 -7.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 62.04 23.04
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -3.73
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 63.38 35.26
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -17.73 87.34
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 95.36 29.11
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 582.62 41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 561.54 37.27
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -86.24 -41.16
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -1.46 7.42
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.66 0.71
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.84 1.61
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.62 3.37
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.07 1.13
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.91 -11.72
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.91 -11.72
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 24.20 -5.57
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 19.07 -15.45
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 12.52 -14.45
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 25.50 38.13
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 9.40 -16.17