ADT Inc. (NYSE: ADT)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Security & Protection Services CIK: 0001703056
Market Cap 4.95 Bn
P/B 1.30
P/E -9.23
P/S 1.68
ROIC (Qtr) 8.10
Div Yield % 0.71
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 4.35
Total Debt (Qtr) 7.81 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.13
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About

ADT Inc., known by its ticker symbol ADT, is a prominent provider of security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company's mission is to empower people to protect and connect what matters most through innovative offerings, unrivaled safety, and a premium experience. ADT's primary business activities revolve around two segments: Commercial and Small Business (CSB) and Solar. The CSB segment encompasses revenue and operating costs from the sale, installation, servicing, and monitoring of integrated security, interactive,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.97B provides strong 37.77x coverage of stock compensation 52.17M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.39B exceeds capital expenditure of 583.35M by 2.38x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash reserves of 171.03M provide ample 48.95x coverage of acquisition spending 3.49M, enabling strategic growth opportunities.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.97B provides strong 10.35x coverage of inventory 190.44M, indicating efficient inventory management.
  • Tangible assets of 6.23B provide robust 7.89x coverage of other current liabilities 788.97M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.97B barely covers its investment activities of (1.18B), with a coverage ratio of -1.67, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.97B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (191.85M) with a -10.27 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.97B provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 2.34B, which is 0.84x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • High receivables of 400.44M relative to inventory of 190.44M (2.10 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • High financing cash flow of (821.93M) relative to working capital of (489.59M), which is 1.68x suggests concerning dependence on external funding for operational needs.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Security & Protection Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ALLE Allegion plc 14.00 Bn 21.75 3.44 1.98 Bn
2 MSA MSA Safety Inc 7.99 Bn 374.33 5.71 0.63 Bn
3 BCO Brinks Co 6.24 Bn 112.89 1.74 4.32 Bn
4 BRC Brady Corp 4.99 Bn 38.51 4.29 0.18 Bn
5 ADT ADT Inc. 4.95 Bn -9.23 1.68 7.81 Bn
6 CXW CoreCivic, Inc. 2.04 Bn 18.69 0.98 1.04 Bn
7 GEO Geo Group Inc 2.02 Bn 8.48 0.80 1.63 Bn
8 NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc 1.57 Bn 33.18 8.19 0.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.79 1.53
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 20.43 15.25
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.62 44.60
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -44.85 8.47
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 12.57 14.35
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 179.09 28.03
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.55 0.95
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.28 2.53
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.30 3.48
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -9.23 32.21
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.34 106.48
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 28.90 25.28
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.22 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.13 7.91
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.94 -11.72
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 20.31 -7.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -16.47 23.04
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 10.00 -3.73
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -26.10 35.26
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 4.11 87.34
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -21.93 29.11
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -23.71 41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -21.65 37.27
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 25.49 -41.16
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 3.10 7.42
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.32 0.71
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.08 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.12 1.61
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.67 3.37
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.13 1.13
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.94 -11.72
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.94 -11.72
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 51.50 -5.57
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 24.76 -15.45
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 16.33 -14.45
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 80.90 38.13
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 12.50 -16.17