Forward Air Corp (NASDAQ: FWRD)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics CIK: 0000912728
Market Cap 737.55 Mn
P/B 5.28
P/E -6.36
P/S 0.30
ROIC (Qtr) 5.12
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -3.69
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.16 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 15.43
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About

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is a prominent player in the freight and logistics industry, offering less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and intermodal drayage services across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company specializes in expedited freight, truckload, and intermodal services, primarily catering to the premium segments of the markets it serves. Forward Air's operations are divided into two segments: Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust tangible asset base of 1.34B provides 14.51x coverage of working capital 92.45M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 1.34B provide robust 6.17x coverage of other current liabilities 217.28M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Cash reserves of 140.35M provide solid 1.40x coverage of other non-current liabilities 99.97M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Cash reserves of 140.35M provide comfortable 2.72x coverage of tax obligations 51.58M, showing strong fiscal management.
  • Cash position of 140.35M represents healthy 1.52x of working capital 92.45M, demonstrating strong operational liquidity.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 49.88M barely covers its investment activities of (34.68M), with a coverage ratio of -1.44, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Cash reserves of 140.35M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (10.98M), which is -12.79x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 49.88M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 13.15M, with a 3.79 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of 138.41M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 149.57M, with a 0.93 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Operating cash flow of 49.88M provides minimal 0.71x coverage of tax expenses of 70.22M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Integrated Freight & Logistics
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 FDX Fedex Corp 99.67 Bn 20.28 1.11 37.77 Bn
2 UPS United Parcel Service Inc 98.11 Bn 17.61 1.11 28.59 Bn
3 JBHT Hunt J B Transport Services Inc 28.29 Bn 145.14 7.91 1.60 Bn
4 EXPD Expeditors International Of Washington Inc 22.29 Bn 27.40 2.13 0.56 Bn
5 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. 21.34 Bn 36.35 1.31 1.43 Bn
6 ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 20.15 Bn 16.23 3.02 1.74 Bn
7 GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. 7.46 Bn 83.79 0.58 5.50 Bn
8 LSTR Landstar System Inc 5.11 Bn 28.60 1.06 0.13 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.00 1.04
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 56.24 -0.78
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.30 -1.98
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 20.27 10.54
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 10.60 9.04
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 106.67 -2.76
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 3.80 0.62
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.12 -0.31
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 5.28 4.96
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -6.36 15.82
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 0.95
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 14.92
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.73
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 11.81
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.75 -430.42
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 33.56 -2,938.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 1.59 139.78
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -0.23
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 163.72 -442.31
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 126.16 -224.47
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 119.43 -367.92
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 94.79 -191.62
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 82.91 -974.30
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 155.37 -67.17
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 11.99 1.66
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.89 1.29
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.31 0.97
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.20 3.22
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 15.43 1.06
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.75 -430.42
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.75 -430.42
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 11.50 17.62
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 5.54 24.68
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -1.83 18.38
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 41.40 20.25
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -4.60 31.04