ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics CIK: 0001677250
Market Cap 20.15 Bn
P/B 2.22
P/E 16.23
P/S 3.02
ROIC (Qtr) 90.25
Div Yield % 1.39
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 11.14
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.74 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19
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About

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., known as ZTO, is a leading express delivery company based in China. It is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol ZTO. The company was founded in 2009 and has since expanded its network to include 99 sorting hubs, over 3,900 line-haul routes, and more than 31,000 pickup and delivery outlets across China. ZTO's business model revolves around its network of network partners who operate pickup and delivery outlets under the ZTO brand. These partners are responsible for collecting packages from...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.48B provides robust 0.85x coverage of total debt 1.74B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B provides exceptional 69.74x coverage of minority interest expenses 21.24M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B provides exceptional 35.98x coverage of interest expenses 41.18M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B provides strong 71.58x coverage of stock compensation 20.70M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 11.25B provides 6.48x coverage of total debt 1.74B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B barely covers its investment activities of (249.19M), with a coverage ratio of -5.95, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • High receivables of 336.08M relative to inventory of 6.78M (49.60 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.48B barely covers operating expenses of (145.91M) with a -10.15 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.
  • Retained earnings of 5.78B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (36.27M), which is -159.37x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Short-term investments of 2.34B represent 1.83x of working capital 1.28B, suggesting potentially excessive financial asset allocation versus operational needs.

Products and Services Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Integrated Freight & Logistics
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 FDX Fedex Corp 99.67 Bn 20.28 1.11 37.77 Bn
2 UPS United Parcel Service Inc 98.11 Bn 17.61 1.11 28.59 Bn
3 JBHT Hunt J B Transport Services Inc 28.29 Bn 145.14 7.91 1.60 Bn
4 EXPD Expeditors International Of Washington Inc 22.29 Bn 27.40 2.13 0.56 Bn
5 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. 21.34 Bn 36.35 1.31 1.43 Bn
6 ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 20.15 Bn 16.23 3.02 1.74 Bn
7 GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. 7.46 Bn 83.79 0.58 5.50 Bn
8 LSTR Landstar System Inc 5.11 Bn 28.60 1.06 0.13 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.56 1.04
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 4.77 -0.78
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.07 -1.98
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 4.39 10.54
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 3.59 9.04
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 10.45 -2.76
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.35 0.62
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.06 -0.31
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.22 4.96
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 16.23 15.82
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 0.95
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 22.60 14.92
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.35 0.73
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 5.82 11.81
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 39.08 -430.42
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 12.08 -2,938.62
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -19.79 139.78
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -63.92 -0.23
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 2.11 -442.31
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -0.73 -224.47
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 0.70 -367.92
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 1.04 -191.62
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 3.08 -974.30
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -20.09 -67.17
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -5.63 1.66
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.07 1.29
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout Ratio 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.39 0.97
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.38 3.22
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19 1.06
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 39.08 -430.42
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 39.08 -430.42
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 31.00 17.62
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 171.71 24.68
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 23.50 18.38
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 26.00 20.25
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 18.60 31.04