Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd/Cn (NYSE: CP)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Railroads CIK: 0000016875
Market Cap 77.60 Bn
P/B 2.34
P/E 25.11
P/S 7.13
ROIC (Qtr) 8.31
Div Yield % 0.51
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 1.66
Total Debt (Qtr) 17.31 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.52
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About

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited, also known as CPKC, is a prominent transportation provider that operates in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company's extensive network spans approximately 20,000 miles, offering rail and intermodal services. CPKC generates revenue through the transportation of bulk commodities, merchandise, and intermodal traffic. The company's primary products include grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur, as well as merchandise such as forest products, energy, chemicals, and plastics. These products cater...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 47.09B provides 2.72x coverage of total debt 17.31B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 3.98B provides 2.13x coverage of SG&A expenses 1.87B, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.98B provides strong 11.32x coverage of inventory 351.45M, indicating efficient inventory management.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.98B provides solid 1.06x coverage of current liabilities 3.77B, showing strong operational health.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.98B provides strong 2.71x coverage of operating expenses 1.47B, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.98B barely covers its investment activities of (1.89B), with a coverage ratio of -2.10, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.98B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (557.25M) with a -7.14 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • High receivables of 1.53B relative to inventory of 351.45M (4.37 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • High financing cash flow of (2.12B) relative to working capital of (1.40B), which is 1.52x suggests concerning dependence on external funding for operational needs.
  • Cash position of 297.83M provides weak coverage of payables of 2.10B, which is 0.14x, indicating potential working capital stress and supplier relationship risks.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Railroads
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 UNP Union Pacific Corp 156.32 Bn 21.90 6.38 32.55 Bn
2 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp 98.17 Bn 49.09 8.45 17.09 Bn
3 CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd/Cn 77.60 Bn 25.11 7.13 17.31 Bn
4 CSX Csx Corp 76.97 Bn 26.64 5.46 18.87 Bn
5 CNI Canadian National Railway Co 67.54 Bn 19.60 5.35 15.71 Bn
6 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp 44.42 Bn 37.97 3.98 5.54 Bn
7 TRN Trinity Industries Inc 2.81 Bn 29.44 1.29 5.94 Bn
8 GBX Greenbrier Companies Inc 0.96 Bn -16.79 0.84 1.77 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.12 1.36
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 17.63 16.53
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.05 2.59
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 15.35 7.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 12.90 18.51
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 39.44 28.00
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.90 1.04
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 6.44 2.75
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.34 3.50
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 25.11 21.48
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.02 2.51
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.90 22.50
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.43 1.27
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 16.02 15.26
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 7.43 0.60
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -8.02 -6.16
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -12.52 35.27
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -39.50 3.76
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 16.90 17.20
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 6.15 -15.55
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 14.39 18.03
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 16.18 15.09
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 19.56 15.15
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 13.44 426.49
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 4.87 -4.94
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.13 0.57
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.16
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.08 0.90
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.63 1.61
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.52 1.04
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 7.43 0.60
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 7.43 0.60
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 55.20 -101.68
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 57.89 -107.52
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 36.30 -114.27
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 67.40 37.55
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 28.40 -117.34