Capital One Financial Corp (NYSE: COF)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0000927628
Market Cap 111.93 Bn
P/B 0.98
P/E 102.41
P/S 3.87
ROIC (Qtr) 0.73
Div Yield % 1.31
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 67.88
Total Debt (Qtr) 51.48 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.45

About

Capital One Financial Corporation, often recognized by its stock symbol COF, is a diversified financial services holding company operating in the financial industry. The company's main business activities involve offering a broad array of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across various distribution channels, including digital platforms, branch locations, and cafés. Capital One's primary revenue generation stems from lending to consumer and commercial customers, with the associated funding...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 22.34B provides robust 0.43x coverage of total debt 51.48B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 615.97B provides 11.96x coverage of total debt 51.48B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 22.34B provides strong 31.02x coverage of stock compensation 720M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 20.84B exceeds capital expenditure of 1.49B by 13.99x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash reserves of 55.28B provide ample 3.36x coverage of acquisition spending 16.46B, enabling strategic growth opportunities.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 22.34B barely covers its investment activities of (6.88B), with a coverage ratio of -3.24, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 22.34B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.48B) with a -15.13 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 20.84B represents just -1.83x of debt issuance (11.42B), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating earnings of 1.63B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 4.47B, with a 0.36 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Retained earnings of 63.62B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (5.92B), which is -10.75x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.16 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 4.72 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.05 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 64.76 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 17.26 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 5.06 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.94 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.65 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.98 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 102.41 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.61 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 100.80 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.40 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 7.36 4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -34.36 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 12.13 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -67.55 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -28.99 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -69.74 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -69.74 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -77.59 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -3.95 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 9.02 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.06 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.45 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 21.10 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 5.64 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 5.64 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 3.80 -23.76